At least you only lost $80! Could have been way worse. I know you have strong dislike for AMD historically, but with stocks and options I usually leave my gut out of it and look at charts, technicals and news. All three were poised for blast off.
To answer my own concern early today. There was a 200K sell over a million dollars that tells me it was institution taking their profits that pushed the price back down. Once they were done AMD rallied back up just short of $6 giving back 13 cents. Thanks to the shorts the previous day AMD is just now entering the overbought level. Looking at the charts it could go up another 6 points or more before a strong pullback. This is the highest volume since the big pop in late April. There is no doubt there will be a pull back at some point next week but I also believe that the $6 target will be broke and that is where I will take some profits. As in college basketball, AMD is a Cinderella stock, doing what it takes to get the final 4
I took half my profits at $5.70. Took it too early, but wanted to ensure some gains. Holding the other half long-term, and will enter back in on any pull-backs.
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This was faster than expected as David Wong comes through again Why Analysts Are Raising AMD Turnaround Expectations Much Higher After Earnings Wells Fargo remains one of the most aggressive to the upside. The firm’s David Wong has an Outperform rating and raised its valuation range to $6.00 to $7.00 from a prior range of $5.50 to $6.50. Wong said: Our valuation range is based on approximately 1.15 to 1.35x our 2017 sales estimate. We think this multiple range is reasonable given AMD’s continuing losses. Company-specific risks include the fact that AMD has yet to clearly demonstrate consistent profitability. Sector risks include uncertainty as to what long term secular growth might be. More: http://247wallst.com/technology-3/2...ound-expectations-much-higher-after-earnings/
Correction on that post. It should have read: To answer my own concern early today. There was a 200K sell over a million dollars that tells me it was institution taking their profits that pushed the price back down. Once they were done AMD rallied back up just short of $6 giving back 13 cents. Thanks to the shorts the previous day AMD is just now entering the overbought level. Looking at the charts the RSI could go up another 6 points or more before a strong pullback. This is the highest volume since the big pop in late April. There is no doubt there will be a pull back at some point next week but I also believe that the $6 target will be broke and that is where I will take some profits.
Yes, a point & figure with a 4-cent box and 3-box reversal bears out that enough cause was built to bust $6 and potentially move to $6.80. But as you say there will likely be some backing and filling on the way up there. The hourly chart appears to indicate that Friday's action was climatic. I'm guessing a back up to 5.40s area or possibly even as deep as 5.22. I'll be watching to get long. Nice find. EDIT: The 6.80 target is the short term target. Longer term this could go much higher.
I wrote this on May 28th and needless to say the $5 price target was taken out some time ago as the $6 target is close to being broke. I still stand behind the Long Term target of $9.75. If and when the long term taken out it could be clear sailing from there. My short term price target is now $6.30 and a mid-term target of $7
Of course the problem with ERs is that it brings in poor quality demand, ergo the public, who are generally short-sighted and skittish ready to take profits or limit losses. Looking at the 15-minute sticks there was about the same wave-volume on the morning gap-up as there was on the automatic reaction back down to $5.45 so I suspect 5.45 will need to get tested. On the secondary test of the 5.93 morning-high there was lack of demand at resistance; everybody who wanted to buy had already bought. On the other hand the big boyz could issue some sort of upgrade Monday morning and re-ignite public demand and push it up to 6.30. But for me, trying to buy, I'm not about to chase that kind of action. The problem with buying in here is that I'd be paying too much to find out if $5.22 holds. The closer to 5.22 I can buy the better my reward to risk ratio. I'd like to see that there is no supply of stock for sale on a decent retest. 15-minute sticks:
During the morning there was that a institutional holder that started taking profits as I saw 200K go through on the bid and after they were done, it rallied back up. That is my opinion of what happened. Then as it was a Friday there was a little profit taking near the close. David Wong from Wellsfargo upped the price target to $7 right after the ER. Now if the naysayer analyst from Bernstein would change his direction it would be nice. I would not chase either and the 5.45 getting tested is quite possible. I don't think the 5.22 will get tested but in this market you never know. Good luck on snatching a good entry price
Major Pachinko and Pachislot Provider Selects AMD for New 3D Gaming Machine SUNNYVALE, CA--(Marketwired - Jul 25, 2016) - AMD ( NASDAQ : AMD ) today announced that Sammy Corporation in Japan is using the AMD Embedded R-Series APU for its new pachislot machine, named "Pachislot Hokuto no Ken: Shura no Kuni." Much like other gaming options, pachislot systems are increasingly compute intensive and graphically immersive, requiring high performance 3D graphics for the modern game player. Sammy has announced that the new machine is expected to launch in pachislot parlors across Japan beginning in fall, 2016. The strong visual element and growing need for quality graphics in gaming machines are an ideal match for AMD Embedded R-Series processors that combine high performance x86 CPUs and with leading graphics capabilities. "Gaming is a natural application of our APU technology that combines strong compute with high performance and stunning graphics," said Stephen Turnbull, director of embedded vertical industry marketing, AMD Enterprise Solutions. "Our collaboration with Sammy Corporation has enabled the development of a pachinko slot machine which employs real 3D video technology in an industry that traditionally employs 2D imagery. The energy-efficient AMD Embedded R-Series processors help Sammy to create amazing visual experiences for their customers." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-pachinko-pachislot-provider-selects-130000329.html
Another 9%, shorts are getting squeezed.... I was already planning to hold it for long term, but after all this it is now official... I just cant realize my gains at this point and pay absurd taxes.
Whew nice move. Sold my August calls for 150%. I'll be back in this on a dip. Very bullish long term.
