You and I posted some topical market content today but I also posted quite a bit of dirt. I apologize for that. To be direct, I thought you were leaving or I would not have soiled your thread. I put out my shingle to see if anyone wants to discuss semis, AI, oil, energy, real estate, or financial. These are my primary areas. I will check every few days for a month, or so. As much as I constantly read and talk semis, they aren't my strongest area. Truth is, I don't believe the entire field is knowable by anyone. I've heard experts say things that were objectively wrong and I don't believe they were saying it for the purpose of deception. It's a gigantic dog pile of people going in similar, but slightly different, directions. There is also the conspiracy theory of AI which has gotten so big it now controls broad market swings. I believe this is almost certainly true. The Russians slowly gained control over the NYSE, starting in the 1990s and progressively more into the 2000s. I assume that means Russian mafia. It is not inconceivable that a small group of folks are oscillating the market while repeatedly harvesting the tick. It seems far more likely than not, to me. BTW, A few months ago I had SpaceX in 4th place to win the AI race to power. I now consider them 3rd place for likely dominance. Agentic and OpenAI, meanwhile, just pooped the bed yesterday.
In case someone is interested in semiconductors, I will comment on IBM's claim to have produced a 7 Angstrom chip. Analysis: Odds of it being true -> 0%. Odds of there being some truth to it -> 90%. Odds of it being entirely false -> 10% First, IBM doesn't have a production fab. They outsource. They do have a research fab. Next, it wouldn't surprise me if Intel has some samples from a 7A process node. Node advancements are a pipeline. They take years to evolve and stabilize. The first lithography will be a proof of concept of chemistry, optics, or whatever. They will iterate that slowly over a long period, trying to figure out what the hell just happened. They make wafers using masks GloFo used to call "Structures". Other fabs probably use a different term. They don't start printing working circuits. They make a big lattice work of semiconducting substrate and then examine the living shit out of it it under a scanning electron microscope or, more likely, transmission electron microscope. It's designed to highlight process accuracy and issues, not to semiconduct. Once they have something that passes their various test for conduction, dielectric, etc., they begin the next 99% of the process. I promise IBM is not making transistors for stereos that fit on a boron atom. The most they have is likely a wafer of structures that holds promise for a node that won't be ready for 6 years. This is a small flex on possible semiconductor chatter.
On the other hand, if someone wishes to discuss the type F-A personalities that drive the oil field service industry, that's cool too. There are a few areas in this zone of industry in which only a dominant mo-fo can succeed. When an MBA takes over an oil field company, I look for an exit like the building is on fire. To be honest, I look for the door when any company is taken over by an MBA. There have been successful CEOs with MBAs but they are rare. They generally run companies into the ground and then move to another company to do it again.
Tom, seeing you are into the oil thing, have you watched or looked into FET? I was in them for a while from about $10-$20 but got out when it lagged around and dropped off for about a year. Seems the market finally been rewarding them but sadly I’m not in it anymore. Still likely has a lot of room to run. I work for one of the major refinery companies, won’t name it but it’s about the biggest that don’t also drill oil which would help figure out which one lol. They’ve been on fire stock wise.
What a small world. I watched FET for many years but have never owned them. They're in my watch list as one of the companies that might end up in Ukraine. At the moment, I'm considering a blanket strategy to pick up a few service companies, likely including FET, once Putin slips and falls off a balcony. I wish I knew more about refining but I'm no chem engineer and I have no visibility into that industry. I owned Valero Energy for a while, starting in 2012. The books were amazing. They started boosting the dividend like crazy. I wish I had been smart enough to hold that company. I've never owned your company but they are in my watch list more as a data point than a company I am actively interested in. Anything you might share about how the industry works would be golden words.
Like every industry, it's extremely difficult to get honest information out of the Ukrainian war but I think Ukraine will control the Donbas in 2026. I speculate it will be earlier than later. Meanwhile, it looks like Alexey Dyumin is one of the front runners to take the thrown when Putin springs from this mortal coil. He is just one of many possibilities. There is no possibility of a pro-democracy leader taking power. Every possible replacement is an asshole. The most that can be hoped for is the next Russian president may withdraw from the Ukraine war. This is likely but not certain. That doesn't mean the Donbas will be a hot zone of oil industry in 2027 but it's a strong possibility. After years of watching, I believe we move closer to time to move on oil service companies.
I will mention, the issue I have with FET is they are a small cap company. It appears to be a well run company, although I know less about it than some other oil field service companies, but they will absolutely not 4x on Ukrainian service contracts. The real money will be made in the micro cap space. This is also where real money will be lost. lol!
I'm no expert in Russian politics. Alexey Dyumin seems the most likely to succeed Putin but I'm tracking 7 people who have been mentioned as Russian power brokers. It's both possible and likely, 6 of those seven people will die around the time Putin does. The reason I mention it is, I feel it's important to Russia's future. I see 0% chance of Russia thriving post Putin. They will probably do better, for a while, but it is not going to be a situation in which the population is free to thrive and prosper. It will continue to be an absolutist regime that is obnoxious and sews the seeds of evil globally. Europe will no doubt immediately restore full economic relations with Russia, when Putin dies. They are some of the dumbest leaders on the planet so it likely will take them some time to realize the chef may have changed but the same gruel is coming from the kitchen. On the other hand, this war seems to have put Ukraine through a metamorphosis that I believe is likely to lead to Ukrainian prosperity. It seems clear, Ukraine will become a substantially bigger player on the global stage. What they have done is admirable and astonishing.
