At current market, FET has enterprise value of right around $1B. Even if they pick up $1B of service contracts over 5 years to do service work in the Donbas, I don't see how that will turn the company around. There's no way they will use the new income to pay down debt and set themselves up for long term success. I don't have enough respect for the management team to think that can happen. The best case I see is: it will do well for two or three years and then sink back down into a debt addled malaise. The front side gains are probably mostly gone by now. I will be watching on the back side for tasty options to profit form my pessimism. lol! I picked up small quantities of two companies but not FET.
This site is the old west so I will plant a seed of politics. I've been looking at attempting to profit from companies moving from blue states to red states. As of now, there has been some exodus but the vast majority of money remains in New York. If New York can manage to start confiscating commercial real estate to fuel their agenda, as they have been discussing wanting to do, that will trigger a significant exodus. Long term, I suspect the USSC will shut down state seizures without cause. I have reasonable but not high confidence capitalism will hold, at least on some level, in the blue states. Still, if a ton of money flows from north to south and west to east, there will create some opportunities.
I apologize but I don't think it's a good idea to openly discuss the future purchase of low circulation companies. Even if the price only goes up a few cents, that money is earmarked for my family.
