Anatomy of a scoop. Unfortunately, the site search engine only goes back to July 18. There was some weird nVidia stuff going on, last year. I noticed it but didn't know what to think about it. In January this year, after analyzing TSMC wafer alotments, the discrepancy became a whole lot more clear. My first post throwing shade on nVidia was in March. That post triggered a personal attack. Nobody here wanted to read anything negative about their champion company. As it got closer to mid year, I had some pretty solid telemetry on nVidia's massive production diversion. As you would expect, that triggered some obnoxious replies explaining I am wrong. I am not responsible to warn anyone about any potential loss nor am I responsible to inform anyone of any opportunity. I started talking about buying puts in April. It would have been better if I purchased then but I didn't get any contracts until June. Those put contracts were executed at the end of September for a nice (but not earth shattering) gain. If you post something and it upsets people, that is a sign you're onto something. People are myopic about their passions. You can make money buying trampolines when you see the herd walking toward a cliff. Believe me, the herd is not likely to change direction. That would require admitting they were wrong. Not admitting to me. Admitting to themselves. By August, my posts were more focused on AMD Helios. I didn't realize how much I posted on it until looking through search results, just now. Helios will start to dominate the NEWS cycle next year. It will no doubt push AMD higher. I continue to have no plans to own AMD or related options. Helios is playing out about how I predicted. If you believe company X has a scandal, talking about it publicly will make an enemy of everyone who holds company X in their portfolio. They do not want to read it. That's just how it is. This thread is about ruthless objectivity.
BTW, forget the idea AMD can purchase nVidia's wafer capacity and replace nVidia's parts iwth their own MI455X. MI455X is lithographed on 2N while nVidia's B200 is made on 3NP. Any re-allotment of wafer capacity will not replace supply of AI GPGPUs. The industry will pivot. Memory prices might crash, and really should, but probably won't. AMD's market share will suddenly become hugely relevant. TSMC 2N capacity is on track to double by the end of the year. That will boost supply of MI455X cards. Helios will become a highly relevant platform but it isn't going to replace NVL72 or drive nVidia from the market. nVidia has abandon gamers and desktop. That is a fact but they haven't been gone so long as to not regain some of it. I expect they will be just fine. RTX can again stand for ray tracing extreme. This will probably push AMD further from the consumer space but time will tell. I no longer admire Lisa Su as I once did but I certainly will not bet against her. Lisa Su is a powerful force in technology. Hopefully, I've misunderstood her recent comments and she will continue to do a great job. This is a weird time. AI GPUs are the most important thing but that era will soon be over. How fast can nVidia regroup? Will Rubin still come out on time? Every slip is a massive hit. Time is everything. Can AMD scale production to meet Mi455X and Helios demand? What of these new AI structures which stray from tensor? Will they extend the relevance of GPGPUs? This is the most exciting time in the history of investing.
NNVDA $163 nVidia stock is responding as expected for a sex scandal. I wonder what would happen if it were to come out this is a massive sales conspiracy and not a simple sex scandal.
Now Elon is petitioning to have Jensen restored as nVidia CEO. Apparently, he has no problem with treason. To be honest, I'm not sure what to make of it. I'm not even sure the US can be saved, at this point.
