I hope this becomes a participation thread. Please share your thoughts, death threats, and well considered FUs below. This thread is not what we want to happen. This is what we expect to happen. My apologies to people who work for any of these companies for predicting their failure. I will take delight in being wrong. I predict these companies to go bankrupt and in this order. This is a wild, semi-educated, guess. It is not something I have deeply studied, although it is based on real world factors I consider to be significant. - Rivian (They continue to exist because they have infinite funding. The first bad market will take them out.) - Canoo (It breaks my heart to predict this companies failure because I so much like what they are doing.) - Lucid (If they can get someone to buy them, it would push them further down the list. I predict no one will buy them. I really like this company above all others and would prefer to predict great success for them.) - GM (GM will go bankrupt; probably multiple times. They probably have a bankruptcy department. They have great engineering chops. It's too bad the executives are incompetent.) - Toyota (Akio Toyoda is still betting on ICE and seems to continue to think fuel cells are a thing. His divine right to rule is going to bring a divine right to go bankrupt.) - Volkswagen (Management roulette is their death knell. I suspect the source of their problems is at the board level. Meanwhile, they are having more software problems.) - Stellantis (truck/van sales will keep this company going after others are gone) - Ford (truck/van sales will keep this company going after others are gone. CEO is a grossly over paid moron.) Footnotes - Tesla I believe Tesla is going to have a wild ride. They appear to be the heir apparent of charging networks. In fact, I'm almost ready to declare a victory in their favour. The Tesla vs the world contest is over; Tesla won. FSD could create a pretty massive implosion, if they can't pull it out. I used to sit back and let people complain about it being late, smug in the knowledge they are going to succeed. I was 95% sure. Now I'm 85% sure. A lack of FSD will not kill the company but it will wound it terribly and it could take Elon Musk away from relevance. There is an amazing energy company growing inside of Tesla. This company will almost certainly succeed but it has a long, long way to go to grow into the trillion dollar valuation that Tesla has become. - BYD / SAIC / BAIC / NIO / CATL / et al. These companies, in some form, are going to dominate the world. They are going to be able to build cars far more efficiently in China than anywhere else. I think these brands are going to merge and transform but the slightly different looking forest will still consist of the trees that are growing today. Even if these companies are blocked from entering foreign markets due to legislation, they will become component suppliers of significant assemblies and maybe even software. I list CATL in this list because they are selling battery packs. While they don't presently have a car, their parts catalog is growing significantly and they have started to build out a major charging / battery-swap network in China that might turn into something.