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Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by B Russ, Sep 27, 2017.
It's a drug
AEO going to watch this for the next couple days. expecting it to get rejected, so i should probably buy calls. but seriously, i am trying to pay extra attention to the candle sticks coupled with the trends. i have a bad habit of going all in based on one or the other, but know they are all more powerful when used together. in the past, i would have thrown some puts on this, but am going to wait and see what develops in the coming days. i would like to see some signs of weakness in the pattern first.
BJRI gapped and retraced. yesterday and today showing some indecisiveness. i need to go back and refresh candles, but i think a reversal pattern is developing.
FDX setting up for a possible squeeze next week. I really like the triangles. Generally they have been the best breakout action for timeline predictability for me. Good options scalps when they finally pop. This one however, i wouldn't be surprised if it goes sideways till after earnings, which is 3 days after the June options expire. I will spend more time this weekend or tomorrow night, seeing if a good long straddle candidate for July or maybe even August contracts. i don't generally do straddles, but again....am trying to treat this more like a job and reduce risk.
That is all i have for tonight. Not jumping on any of them yet, but will keep an extra watchful eye on BJRI tomorrow.
Adding FDX to watch list so thanks
quick shout out to you Brian! 'tis so good seeing you back at it again man!
Thanks bigbear. i do always appreciate the friendly support.
Well now....barring any crazy movement tomorrow morning, i believe i am going to buy june puts on AEM. its been in a bit of a sideways trend for a couple yrs. dipped down well below the strike of $42 that i am eying for my puts. consolidating into a wedge and showed what i believe was a bearish engulfing pattern, i think it is? i guess technically its not a full engulfing, but very close...and happened near the projected breakout point, also at a time when gold is at new recent lows....looks like a great one to experiment with my knowledge of candlesticks with cheap contracts.
Closed MTCH for small gain. Was worried about the sideways movement eating into the theta. Closed at $2.13.
Avereged more into CAR. it took a hit friday and i picked up some more at same strike. 6-15 calls $44 strike @ $1.10
initially came on here to find you but got sidetracked in lounge so back to post link to site i posted in TSLA thread that you may or may not know about BUT would like to get your hit on this site if/when you do finally get around to checking in more regularly than you have been https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/30/ray-dalio-quit-these-bad-habits-to-succeed.html?__source=twitter|main
Considered starting a new thread. Didnt want to clutter. I guess this way, my trading evolution serves as a true journal? If i can change the title i will.
its really morphed into more of my journey overall in investing. 90% investment share holding, per long term view, with a bit of gamble.
I almost no longer do options. My view has cerainly changed. I still see the options potential in a flat market for covered calls situations. (Or more routes that i havent cared to explore too much yet). Even post rona era, i have been burned. But more on the hiatus first.
Blew up too many low funded options accounts, looking for golden tickets. Stayed aware of the market. Thought it was too high for many yrs. did achieve a small step in what was once my primary investment goal. Secured a rental property, turning a monthly profit.
i checked in from time to time, queue rona season. Market crash. My cinderella stock is in freefall. The one that got away when i was messing with options.
had a gut check moment, considered avenues in securing liquidity, ended up getting an unsecured loan. Almost found the almost the bottom of 2020, TSLA.
so thats the gist of my hiatus.
When i couldnt buy full shares of tsla, i bought APPL
IDEX, was my daytrade gambler that still burns from within.
i was writing covered calls on CAR, swinging the channel. Entry avg $15.6 a share calls sold were for $20. Collected $120 or so a month on the contract. Had a couple awesome months to reinvest. Boom! It shoots to to $29ish high with volatility? I have to sell , ultimately $25 stock for $20 at expiry. Volatility matters when hedging. But a caution i did take into place was setting the sale price at a profit level i was happy with, if i HAD to exercise.
idex is/was my new cryptonite. I deleted it off my watchlist today. Tried to daytrade it and failed evey time. It was even a 3 bagger for me at one point. But i managed a loss anyway. Fortunately, it was a small loss of not even 2% of account. Still frustrating when i know better.
As of now, i am mostly TSLA.
Got first bunch of NIO at $3.10 on a gamble and some good news and real sales.... avgd in at $7.71, and again after a good earnings report today.
NIO started as a (i dont have enough for another ahare of TSLA, but like EV, and like the risk ratio. As profits and real news stacked, i avged in with funds from the CAR calls excercised against me.
APPL, just a workhorse. I only own 1 share now. Haha. I think entry was $246? Its a keeper until its not.
So this is my own/ongoing journal....and my morphed view from what it was, yrs ago on the market and investing in general.
What would you like the thread title changed to?
B Russ investment journey
thank you sir!
Not a problem!
Well i found myself on margin, by accident. Its a good problem for the time being. Shares bought on margin are up nicely. (Brand new daytrader account btw....thank you TSLA for the gains). I guess i miscalculated my available cash. But the margin is negligible $78.
Upon getting exercised on my CAR, i bought a TSLA share, and remaining went to NIO. Accidentally bought too many.
But going to try to capitalize the gap that followed earnings and riding tsla coattail, and that it is about to pop ATH. I figured rather than adding to my account, i will roll the dice.
Sold Covered calls for 2 contracts On NIO expiry, JUL 10. $1.95 and almost 20% OTM and expire 3 days from now.
If i do have to sell them, i already think the stock is overinflated and riding tsla high. It does seem to trend with tsla, but is also not tsla....I am banking on that....and time working against the contract purchaser. If i have to sell, its a 2.5+ bagger, anyway. If i don't, i skimmed, covered margin and got a few extra shares.
It literally shot up .85 since i hit post. That literally has not been more than an hr.....I am leaving investment territory, and heading into gamblers anonymous. Its very likely again, my lust for gambling and high returns, will cost me on long term, yet again...
It's a balancing act that I'm still working on as well. The markets are irrational as ever
My journey, my journal, my ramble. I almost replied to the long term investor @WXYZ and @TomB16
But am so ADD right now, i figured, i would revert to this thread so not to clutter yours with my own bs. Haha. I was just reading it though, and it prompted this response.
in regards to the long term investor thread (of which, i am a huge fan). The know it all’s you recently mentioned....I find myself trying not to be that guy, but feel i am sometimes.
i do feel i have paid a bit of hard knocks tuition. As said above, the market ate my lunch more than once. But The full story is accounts were busted. Not in debt...just like...idk? $3.27? Lol
I continued reading these forums.
i was done with options and wanted to become an investor. Most everything was so priced in. There were no “sales”. I continued reading from afar. A couple yrs? Work, read, sit out....I last journal log was 2018 until a couple weeks ago.
February 2020 happens. First big dip happens. I saw u all (stockaholicks) expected it, from a month or so in advance. Or at least a couple weeks...Futures were HORRIBLE! but i wasnt in, So it was like alabama, if u know u know “somebody told us that wallstreet fell, but we were so poor we couldn't tell”
but thats actually when my meerkat manor ears perked up.
i considered options. As in money funding options, not stock options...as stated above, or somewhere....i have a rental property. Only one....want many. Bought it as a personal home via VA. interest rate is phenomenal. 3.25% 30 yr fixed back in 2010. Landlording has been everything i hoped it would be. I want to add to my real estate portfolio but if being honest, market is much more lucrative right now.
I popped into a mortgage payoff thread...i was referencing this property. Mortgage free (though im not yet) i think is the way to go. I do overpay each month btw. Its equivalent to 1/2 extra payment per yr. not much, i know, but is within my safe budget. I think the freedom outweighs the temporary inconvenience, tax break, the all of it. And then it gives you options! Options to use your assets/equity to make you more money! I do believe mortgage free is the way to go, but also think one should only do so if it makes sense.
I considered refi on my house, back in march, so i could fund my account properly. In the end, i chose an unsecured bank loan (because lets face it, march was volatile AF!!!! (not just market, but everything. The unknown in covid and everything affected by it) I also got a credit card (to which has zero balance) but was a hedge...
i put less into the market than if i had refied....but if my tenant fails, i can cover. If i refie’d, i could not cover. And today’s interst rates do not justify it either. (If tomorrow's interest rates justifies a refi or adversely, a payoff, i will entertain either option to the best of my potential.
I also am (playing the game) much more ok defaulting an unsecured loan if it must be so, than a leveraged home, as in with my property.
back to the know it all’s. This was march. Everyone told me i was stupid for taking a loan and buying into the stock market. Especially when i told them where i was putting 95% of said loan TSLA.
same people are asking me for advice now. It boosts my ego, but at the same time, makes me want to check myself....I just made a stupid ass, move yesterday.
Wrote a covered call x2 on my NIO shares in which i am cautiously positive on the company, short/mid term. Not based on charts, but performance and sector.
now i have to deal with that. I said i didnt care to let them go at $14, yesterday, and (disclaimer!!!!!). I am NOT 2.5 bagger on NIO as stated earlier. Loose math is more like 1.7 bagger. My avg in cost is $5.57. My stoned arkansas math was a little more generous yesterday. Lol
but i am thinking i will cover my stupid decision to write calls on NIO yesterday, with a buy. So....buy/write...thoughts?....i do think it will cost me ultimately, but not as much as giving up my shares....
I need to address the ugly first.
last week, i got caught up in options again. Made a boneheaded, robinhood mentality move to cover a $78 margin. Figured i would sell calls against my NIO shares. It immediately moved against me. I protected them by closing the contract for a loss. I regretted the move and was pissy all weekend. Lol.
I could have sold 6 shares to cover the margin. I will now just fund double that, to bring myself to zero. interest on school of hard knocks tuition?
ok. The good. I am now considering ways to protect my account in the event of my untimely death. Its enough now that i would feel like a shithead if i didnt leave it for my children.
my rothie is covered. But the last research i saw is that an individual account does not transfer/cannot transfer in a will or otherwise? How would one circumvent this? Create a custodian?
So as we know, i am shifitng/have shifted to long term investing. That said, i am still entertained and perked up by certain charts i see that glare at me. Hoping the charting supports my long term theory’s, ultimately.
If you read above, i had a run in with NIO. If not, its up there. Haha.
That said....going to charts....im just time stamping myself, more than anything. Not making new moves....i charted a possible new floor maybe a week ago? Today seems to be testing it. Looks like it was an (fresh ceiling, but turned floor test). The bounce within cents, happened on a line drawn a week ago. After the big gap up. Its crossed it 3 times today...
Looking further out. The 2 yr/1 day, chart. Line drawn last week when it was on a rocketship upward.....
5 day 5 minute look. Same line drawn 2 weeks ago. As of COB today (wednesday) it is riding a very tight line of charted territory.
My guess is it will grind said line until the 23rd? In which will follow tsla. Up or down.....im not playing it other than 3 $13.50 calls jul 24. Other than that, just owning it and watching. Making predictions. Testing my charting with accountability...
Oh no! I suck again! At options! And charting!
Onto my journey. I have been in a conversation or two on mortgage payoffs/refi. I know this isn't stock related, or if it is, its by extention, but its my total investments. And my journal and journey. Soooo!!!
with mortgage rates at all time low, i have been considering options to add to monthly budget. All options. Not stock market alone.
ADD alert. Some influences of mine have been Carlton Sheets, Robert Kiyosaki, Phil Townes, Yes....Donald Trump.... A few authors that helped shape my way of thinking.
One thing they all stress (Or it was a takeaway from me) maybe minus phil townes, is make money where there is money to be made. As soon as you label yourself as one type of investor, you cap yourself.
anyway. I am currently considering a refi on the ol rental property.
There are many pro’s and cons i am weighing. I feel there are more pros than cons.
as we who have kept up, know, i took an unsecured loan in early march to purchase every last share of stock, that i own in the market today. This was a FN high risk move that i am fully aware of! I am NOT advocating this! Not unless you are fully prepared to deal with consequences of being wrong. I was. 100% ready to pay the piper, if i fd up.
My original plan was make payments on unsecured loan, sell shares once i doubled the loan value. I anticipated doubling by jan 2021. Now.... I know...many here say dont invest on borrowed money. But i knew i wanted 95% of my stake in tesla. If tesla went to zero, i knew i could pay that payment for the next 5 yrs. In my eyes, the loan i could afford, was worth the risk. I walked into the bank getting max un secured... (VERY IMPORTANT) UN SECURED.....was intentional. Because i had no FN idea how bad the virus would be!!!! I knew i could lose it all. I knew i could lose my job. I knew if i defaulted, they couldnt take my car or house as they could had i secured it with collateral. I know i paid more in interest. And i know i could have gotten a bigger, cheaper loan, had i put up collateral. By not putting collateral up, but securing an unsecured loan with a bit higher interst, fit my personal risk tolerance, then and there.
Fast forward to today. I have been considering refi. Look at a mailer that came to me. Now i am considering refinancing my rental property. I will have to crunch the numbers, but believe they will all work out.
dropping from 3.25% to 2.75% APR. dropping payments from $920 to i guess $100 less (just spoke with them today). Waiting on paperwork to look through.
at this time....and that may change in 2 hrs, but at this time, i feel a refi is the way to go.
8 yrs in. Just over the 50% principal/interest ratio on my monthly statement for only 4 months now, my principal has been bigger than interest payment. That part annoys me a lot that i am considering givingthe ratio up....BUT!!!!! I am thinking long term.
$928 current payment
$828 new payment
$1350 rent = + $200 per month income
-$100 paying off loan used to purchase the tesla shares that i dare not part with....
said $300 swing in extra monthly budget could Theoretically and realistically be used to apply more to principal than before the refinance....if my numbers add up when i get the paperwork...
in this case, i will lose equity in the property, but gain piece of mind that the tesla shares are mine to keep, and i can have the loan that i intended to sell half of them off, to pay off, paid off, while increasing my monthly budget and maintaining 100% equity in my other INVESTMENT.....investment being tesla....if u haven't paid attention, i will never trade tesla. I eill sell it ONLY, if the company does not fit my terms anymore. That said, it is my single most loved company on the market today..... I bought tesla as an investment....Did not buy to trade or to sell.... I INVESTED in tesla as i did my property...the caps are relevant to other thread titles i chime in on mostly. Investing vs trading is an important differentiation. Cap locks being stressed.
again. Im not sold on this 100%, but it is sounding like a very good option for me right now.