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BA - Boeing Company

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by bigbear0083, Apr 1, 2016.

  1. bigbull

    bigbull Active Member

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    Nothing earth shattering. Consolidating its giant move. Some will want to break the trend once the right shoulder forms, and other will want buy expecting new highs. But this is going nowhere fast short term. Id continue to be a seller of puts into measured downturns as a way to build position at a small cost trusting in the long term growth story.
     
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  2. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    BA and the Trade Tensions Between China and Elliott wave
    As we all are well aware there are definitely heightened tensions on the global trading playing field these days. The markets have been whipping back in forth in exacerbated moves. Every hint or tweet about anything to do with trade, specifically, trade and China causes fireworks in the market. Boeing Co ( NYSE: BA ) has been in the news as well for numerous reasons about trade. Boeing is being accused of circumventing U.S. trade regulations by means of entertaining a controversial satellite order. The order was financed by a Chinese government-owned firm.

    Boeing canceled the order after much scrutiny and backlash due to the sensitive nature of the satellite technology that is also employed by the U.S. military. Times are tense to say the least. Tense times bring out emotions and emotions bring out volatility in the markets. Volatility gives us as traders opportunities. Are there any opportunities near in BA?

    BA, XLI, and Elliott Wave
    [​IMG]

    BA carries an 8.24% weighting as the major component of the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). So I thought it would be curious to analyze the stock and see what the waves are telling us.

    If we did come to a conclusion to buy BA what price or price range makes sense? In times like these I like to find stocks with clear Elliott wave patterns for clues about anticipated outcomes or to help with a correlated trade. I think BA has a clear structure on the higher time frames.

    The Wave Count for BA
    [​IMG]

    BA has progressed from a single digit stock in the 1980s to reach a high of $107.83 in July 2007. We are calling that top Super Cycle degree wave I (in blue). From $107.83 BA progressed lower in Super Cycle degree wave II (in blue) to a low of $31.40 during February of 2009 when basically everything bottomed during the end of the financial crises.

    BA bottomed as well and moved higher in Cycle degree wave I (in red) to $158.83 in February of 2015. Almost an exact year later in February 2016 BA corrected lower to $102.10 to complete Cycle degree wave II (in red). From there it completed another set of first and second waves. This time however it was Primary degree wave ((1)) at the $137.89 high of April 2016 and Primary degree wave ((2)) at the $122.35 low of June 2016.This mean that BA was about to enter the most powerful wave cycle in its history as a 3rd wave on multiple degrees.

    Practitioners of Elliott wave analysis are well aware of the power of 3rd waves and this one was no different. From $122.35 BA continued higher three more Primary degree waves to complete the Cycle degree wave III (in red) on October 3, 2018 to an all-time high of $394.28.

    [​IMG]

    So What's Next?
    BA is now progressing lower as a proposed double-three correction in Primary degrees ((W)), ((X)), and ((Y)) to complete the Cycle degree wave IV . In the chart below we see from the $394.28 high Primary degree wave ((W)) played out in 3 waves.

    Intermediate degree wave (W) (in blue) to the $328.63 low on 10/29/2018. BA then proceeded higher in Intermediate degree wave (X) to $373.39 on 11/02/2018. Intermediate degree wave (Y) then brought prices lower to $296.61 on 11/20/2018 to complete Primary degree wave ((W)).

    From the November low BA progressed higher in three waves to $369 on 12/03/2018 that we are proposing is the end of Primary degree wave ((X)).

    [​IMG]

    Where to Look for a Low
    The ideal price area for BA to find a low and thus provide us with a target area to go long lies in the blue highlighted area in the chart above. This area signifies the likely endpoint as the length of Primary degree wave ((W)) from the all-time highs projected from the top of Primary degree wave ((X)).

    The blue box is an area of high probability that a turn will occur or at least bounce high enough to get in a risk-free position relatively quickly or capture a profitable trade regardless of the accuracy of the wave count.

    This measured move should take the last leg of ((Y)) between $271.30 - $211. So, that's where we would like to start building longs to target back above $394.28 in Cycle degree wave V.

    Trade Safe,

    James
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

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    Boeing Soars
    Mar 4, 2019

    To say that Boeing shares have had a good start to 2019 would be like calling the 747 a puddle jumper. With a gain of over 50% from its late 2018 low and a YTD gain of over 36% through last Friday’s close, it has been one of the strongest starts to a year (through 3/1) for a current DJIA component in decades.

    [​IMG]

    Making its move even more noteworthy is that with a share price of more than $400 and the fact that the Dow is a price-weighted index where each components weighting in the index is based on its share price, BA’s rally has had a ‘jumbo’ impact on the overall index. BA’s weight in the DJIA currently stands at 11.5%, while its weighting in the S&P 500, which is a market cap weighted index is less than 1%. As a result, through Friday’s close the DJIA had gained 2,807 points so far in 2019 and BA accounted for 812 of them. That works out to 29% of the DJIA’s entire gain this year! Without BA’s rally, the DJIA would only be up about 8% this year versus the 11.5% gain through Friday. Behind BA, the next closest stock in terms of its impact on the DJIA this year has been Goldman Sachs (GS) which has accounted for 216 points of the DJIA’s YTD gain (7.7%).

    As mentioned above, BA’s strong start to the year is one of the best for current DJIA components going back to 1995. Of the 30 current members, there have been just four prior occurrences where they rallied more than 30% YTD through the close on 3/1, and two of those occurrences were in the stock of Apple (1998 & 2005) well before it was even added to the DJIA. The only two other occurrences were Intel’s (INTC) 41% gain in 2000 just after it was added in late 1999 and then Microsoft (MSFT) the next year in 2001 when it rallied 37%. The key difference between those two occurrences and Boeing, though, is that because of their share prices at the time, they didn’t have nearly the positive impact on the overall index when they rallied.

    While bulls have nothing to complain about regarding BA’s big rally this year, the impact of high price stocks on the DJIA cuts both ways. Barring any future stock splits, even just a 10% correction in shares of BA would clip the DJIA by more than 250 points.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Interesting number here mentioned on CNBC. At the current rate of growth of China's fleet, they need $1.2T worth of planes over the next 10yrs.
     
  5. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    Well....I haven't been here in this forum very long, and I don't want to ruffle any feathers, or damage anyone's feelings, so this article comes with a warning.

    If you are politically correct and you favor political correctness you may be offended by the following article, also, please keep in mind that I am simply the messenger and not the author, please don't shoot me.

    With all of that being said, this article speaks of Boeing's woes with regards towards the recent failures of their 737's and what the future of Boeing might be.

    Jim Stone: Boeing Is Either Going To Get Woke Or Die.. The Firing Of White Male Engineers And Hiring Cheap Foreign SJW Labor Doomed Their 737 'Max'

    http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=127465

    *Disclaimer: I'm not certain how much truth there is in the claims about Boeing's human resources practices but I have read the same claims elsewhere so I felt that this should be fair game for discussion in this thread, my apologizes to those who are offended.
     
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  6. David Nwokeabia

    David Nwokeabia New Member

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    In short at 376.5; covered at 363.41. I should've just put a stop in and let it run. The support for now seems to be around 350, so if I cant find a better play im going back in.
     
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  7. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Heading to the lows
     
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Muilenburg out as CEO.

    737 Max production will stop in January with no resumption date.
     
  9. HerbertPigg

    HerbertPigg Member

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    Overall this info is useful to know more about that.
     
  10. David Nwokeabia

    David Nwokeabia New Member

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    There's obvious support from 320- 324. I think this can bounce atleast to 350, but I feel a bear market coming.
     
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I am not interested in distressed companies that have been mis-managed but, if I was, Boeing with Miulenburg being replaced, would probably be at the top of my list.

    At some point, the 737 Max will fly again. When that day comes, there will likely be a strong positive over-reaction. It could be a great trade swing, for those who do that sort of thing.
     
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  12. rg7803

    rg7803 Active Member

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    Well...Airbus indeed seems in better shape.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. David Nwokeabia

    David Nwokeabia New Member

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    Boeing will be fine. All this negative news will only cause short term moves. In the long term Boeing is giving good value now. Its like Bank of America as a product sucks, but if the government is only gonna back them when they tank whats the point of not having confidence in them.
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    You may be right. But anecdotally, I know many people who are refusing to ride the Max. Not because of any safety worries on their behalf, but because the Max is 1970's technology.
    That is the real issue with Boeing. They just tried to slap some new features on old technology. Lazy. And it turns out, deadly.

    But no matter how much you polish a turd, you're still holding a piece of shit.

    imo best solution for Boeing going forward is scrap the Max, and scrap any more bright ideas to build with the 737. I can't believe they're trying to hold onto 50+ year old designs. They're lucky this industry has no competition, or they could have ended up being GE.

    new design = easier to win people back. Seriously, just give more legroom.
     
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  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Allow me to be devil's advocate....

    Leg room is a decision of the airlines and a function of how many seats they install in the cabin. It is not a limitation of the max.

    The 737 Max is a new airframe. While similar in appearance to the previous generation, all aircraft necessarily look similar.

    The max flies and handles differently than previous 737 models. This would have caused airline pilots to recertify in the max as a new type. Would have.

    As an efficiency measure, Boeing designed a computer system that sits between the traditional flight computer and the flight controls. The purpose of the new computer is to make the new airframe fly like the old airframe. It is this adapter piece that is causing the crashes.

    The system can work. It just isn't there, yet

    I'm very concerned about Boeing management. I did not trust them with my nest egg as they have displayed behaviours that I avoid. With the CEO who steered them into trouble gone, I hope things improve. I would certainly buy Boeing in the future but not until they have a good management team and that is going to mean a lot more than a new CEO.
     
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  16. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    The 737 is 50 year old technology. Back in the day, you had to walk onto planes from the tarmac; so they couldn't make the planes very high. So what they did, and still do to this day, is they put the wings low. Now there may be a new frame, but the wings are still low. Because of how things were 50 years ago.

    Now, they want to make bigger engines. But the engines hang below the wings, which are low. So with the MAX, they kept the low wings (for what reason?) and moved the engines forward. This has screwed up the balance of the planes. I believe the MCAS was made to make the MAX handle like the previous plane.

    Maybe the planes look different, because the engines are bigger and have moved forward. But they're still basing it all on a 50 year old paradigm.
     
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  17. Gannondaynes

    Gannondaynes New Member

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    $BA What's going on guys I just made a video about the news released today on $BA...which I think it's Bearish...why the technicals are showing we may have a big move to the downside this week from Boeing. Interested to learn if anyone has any other perspective on the future of Boeing stock over the next two weeks. -
     

    Attached Files:

  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Boeing isn't going to reduce their dividend, and has advised relatively minor profit reduction, despite the company more or less being on fire.

    Boeing indicates there is no hardware or software problem with the 737 Max. They cite lack of pilot familiarity with the plane as cause of the crashes.

    To date, no sales of the 787.

    The 777x is struggling to producrion ready on a few fronts.

    I watched the maiden flight of the 777x a few days ago. Gorgeous plane.

    Meanwhile, Quantas passed over the 787 for the A350.

    If I were an investor, I'd hope for the Justice Department to clean up Boeing. It's a rotten apple that appears to be in big trouble. I'm sure it can be saved but not without first cleaning up the systemic corruption problems.
     
  19. rg7803

    rg7803 Active Member

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  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Boeing now claims there is a second software bug which can causes the attitude indicator light to malfunction.

    What are the odds they are using this as cover for a software fix that is far deeper than an indicator light, and they want to register a change so they don't go to jail if the change goes poorly?

    If Boeing management had always conducted itself with integrity, there would be no cause to think this way but they have been so obnoxious and obstructionist, it's the first thing that popped into my head when I read the Bloomberg article.

    I think there is still a chance the 737 Max will fly later this summer. We'll see.

    Given how things are going, This would be a great time to short their engine supplier: GE.

    GE has said they will take a big hit if the 737 Max does not resume production by mid year.
     
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