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BABA - Alibaba

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by bigbear0083, Mar 31, 2016.

  1. bigbull

    bigbull Active Member

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    Consolidating at the high end of its trading range. The $220 price point by year-end now seems like a far-cry.
    $189.72 is the pivot between the lower range -- $179.73 to $186.06 and the higher range -- $192 to $210. I would trade both bands until $198 is reclaimed on volume, or until the highs are taken out.

    [/QUOTE]
     
  2. KyleLennon

    KyleLennon Member

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    Alibaba is working on the development of what it calls “New Retail” to bridge the gap between online and offline shopping using its big data capacity.
     
  3. bigbull

    bigbull Active Member

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    IF market weakness persists, traders may target $169.26 or a re-test of the April 2018 lows.

    In an ideal world, the perfect set-up would be for BABA to re-test those lows come fall, and then proceed to trade back above $182.57, confirming a low on the weekly and monthly time frames.

    OR

    Use $185.13 as support throughout this consolidation phase into year-end before reclaiming $198.

    Of course, the market rarely gives you the set-up you want. For now its best to trade both ranges; lower range -- $179.73 to $186.06 and the higher range -- $192 to $210, or if you believe in the long term trajectory of the company, buy in increments on prints between $169 to $185 and/or above $198.00.

    Like the broader market, this is going nowhere fast until tech consolidates further and a new sector emerges as a leader.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  4. bigbull

    bigbull Active Member

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    $189.72 remains the pivot to the lower ($179.73 to $186.06) and upper ($192 to $210) range. Meanwhile, $194.10 must hold by year end to keep the mid and long term uptrend intact. Those price points have not changed. Failure to hold onto these price levels would imply, at a minimum, further consolidation into the first three months of next year or a potential breakdown in price. Whether the breakdown is the beginning of a larger breakdown or a fake-out is unclear.

    A re-test of $179.68 - $181.15 by Labor Day would provide the ideal set-up to go long the stock at a favorable risk-reward set-up. You risk $19 in downside but have the possibility of making $30 to $50 in potential upside contingent on $194.10 holding into year-end. Call it a 2:1 risk/reward ratio.

    As mentioned earlier, markets rarely give you the ideal entry point unless it part of a larger move. If you are confident in the trajectory of the stock, buying in increments between $179.68 to $194.10 is the best option given the amount of short term noise (positioning).

    I`ve read articles where people are recommending buying Altaba -- AABA over BABA given AABAs steeper discount to its NAV. Either way, its hard not to buy into a secular growth story.
     
    #184 bigbull, Jul 23, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2018
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  5. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    The $170 area has been good for long positions this past year, eyeing it out again.
     
    T0rm3nted and Onepoint272 like this.
  6. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I'm with ya. I just want to see the supply dry up before committing.
     
  7. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Took a shot today at 170.XX shortly after the open.
     
  8. KyleLennon

    KyleLennon Member

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    Management is calling for 60% revenue growth in FY19--and this is well ahead of market expectations of 40% growth. 60% growth (50% excluding the consolidation of food delivery platform Ele.me and Cainiao) further validates the underpinning network effect for the company. Analysts are now closely watching the retailer's aggressive expansion into new categories (fashion, CPG) and verticals beyond e-commerce, such as local services and entertainment.
     
  9. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Continuing that bounce off 165, really picking up momentum here
     
  10. Lonnie Ray

    Lonnie Ray Active Member

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  11. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    On my watch list here
     
  12. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    From 130 to 150 in this bounce, BABA is looking pretty solid
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  13. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    Short term Elliott Wave view of Alibaba (BABA) calls for the rally from Dec 24, 2018 low ($129.1) as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from there, wave ((1)) ended at $142.51 and wave ((2)) pullback ended at $129.99. Wave ((3)) rally ended at $153.35 and wave ((4)) pullback is proposed complete at $146.54. The stock still needs to break above wave ((3)) at $153.35 to avoid a double correction.

    As an Impulse, internal of wave ((1)), ((3)), and ((5)) subdivide in 5 waves of lesser degree. Within wave ((3)), we see the lesser degree Impulse in wave (1) at $131.15, wave (2) at $130.05, wave (3) at $147.54, wave (4) at $142.06, and wave (5) at $153.35. Wave ((4)) pullback ended as a double three Elliott Wave structure, where wave (W) ended at $148.88, wave (X) ended at $153.38, and wave (Y) ended at $146.54.

    Near term, expect Alibaba to extend higher in wave ((5)) while it stays above $146.54. Potential target wave ((5)) can reach as high as $160 - $163 area when wave ((5)) = ((1)). Afterwards, cycle from Dec 24, 2018 should end and Alibaba can pullback to correct that cycle in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

    Alibaba (BABA) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Elliottwave-Forecast.com

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    We believe Alibaba will see more downside based on a sequence which started on 6.5.2018 high. It is showing an extra swing at 12.24.2018. This low can be counted as swing number 9 in Blue or beginning of the swing 1 Black of 3 red. The chart below shows the extra swing.

    [​IMG]

    Alibaba should remain under pressure and see more downside when the cycle or structure which started at 10.30.2018 low ends. At Elliottwave-Forecast, we pay attention to the sequence and correlation across the market. We use Elliott wave to spot the structure and then take a side and forecast the higher probability outcome. We believe the Stock is doing an Elliott wave Running Flat since the low at 10.30.2018. The Flat is very clear due to the strength and nature of the reaction in 5 waves from the low at 12.24.2018. We can count the move higher a 5 waves impulse advance.

    Running Flat is a structure with the following guidelines:
    • A corrective 3 wave move labelled as ABC
    • Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
    • Internal of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
    • Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
    • Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A as in an expanded flat
    • Wave C fails travel the full distance, falling short of the level where wave A ended
    • Momentum divergence should appear in wave C

    The running Flat should follow this Fibonacci ratio relationship
    • Wave B = 123.6% of wave A
    • Wave C = 61.8% – 100% of wave AB

    The following chart reflects how a running flat looks like in the Elliott Wave theory.
    [​IMG]

    BABA 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis
    [​IMG]

    The chart above is showing a clear Elliott wave structure. In finding a structure that fits the price action since the lows at 10.30.2018 and at the same time relates well with other instrument, we can conclude that a running flat is the most aggressive view.
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  15. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Eyeing 190 on this move
     
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  16. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Watching for that move over $190
     
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  17. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    After hitting new 52wk highs, a bit of a sell off this morning.
     
  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Is this our tradewar indicator?
     
  19. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Weekly chart
    [​IMG]
    Looks like it's around a pretty good zone to buy the dip.
    There's an upchannel where it is testing the support line.
     
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