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Beating the S & P 500

Discussion in 'Investing' started by ElectricSavant, May 25, 2019.

  1. ElectricSavant

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    I would like to thank the admin for allowing me to post. I share a lot of content so I hope you can see that I am real. I share my tools and I want to tell you right now that I am not a shill for anybody. I am just enthusiastic about full disclosure and transparency. I have no ulterior motive other than to discuss investing with other investors. I do not trade other peoples money and I do not aspire to.

    What I like about this site... it is populated with real investors. Your layout and contests validate this.

    ES


    P.S. I am going to the Stochaholics cocktail lounge now to enjoy a glass (or two) of red wine.
     
    #41 ElectricSavant, Jun 4, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2019
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  2. ElectricSavant

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    This mornings Podcast:
    https://pwstreet.podbean.com

    All Slices are in positive territory....even the Aristocrats. But the outperformance shrinked more today.:(

    No change in the Aristocrats. Hold all of them one more month.

    Wow, The S & P 500 went up 2.14% today!


    10% Bonds < 3 Mo's +0.10%
    10%
    Bonds 3-6 Mo's +0.11%
    10%
    Bonds 6-18 Mo's +0.03% NEAR, MINT
    10% Bonds > 18 Mo's +0.63%
    30%
    7 Aristocrats +0.07%
    30%
    Best Stocks Now +0.01

    https://m1.finance/Wq74jI5tU

    This portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by
    1.87% from it's inception 14 days ago (05/22/2019). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...P3kKtbJK7tCeI6WMm1QdqVNKoc/edit#gid=348852453
     
    #42 ElectricSavant, Jun 5, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2019
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  3. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I was going to ask you to confirm, but it looks like you've answered it in your last few posts; you are using "Best Stocks Now" as a reference. I listen to that one daily too. Gunderson is adamantly against bond funds; so why don't you try corporate bonds? Maybe too much work at the time, but a couple weeks ago he introduced a bond version of his Best Stocks Now.
     
  4. ElectricSavant

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    No changes to the 26 holdings in this portfolio.

    This mornings Podcast:
    https://pwstreet.podbean.com

    ADP who usually reports on the Wednesday before the Non-Farm Payroll report reported just 27,000 jobs created in May (weakest report in 9 years from ADP) https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/. Rate Cut coming?...Jerome Powell is committed to cutting rates in a glimpse of recession! Bill Gunderson theorizes the low job creation is because there is not a large pool of people. I agree. Friday (the first Friday of the month which is in in two days) will bring the Non-Farm Payroll report.

    The S & P 500 went up +0.82% today! This portfolio went up +1.21%

    10% Bonds < 3 Mo's +0.13%
    10%
    Bonds 3-6 Mo's +0.10%
    10%
    Bonds 6-18 Mo's +0.01% (NEAR), (MINT)
    10% Bonds > 18 Mo's +0.73%
    30%
    7 Aristocrats +1.40%
    30%
    Best Stocks Now +2.68

    https://m1.finance/v4Hb7wToV



    This portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by 2.28
    % from it's inception 15 days ago (05/22/2019).
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...3kKtbJK7tCeI6WMm1QdqVNKoc/edit#gid=1934597665
     
    #44 ElectricSavant, Jun 6, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2019
  5. ElectricSavant

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    Yea they are pushing Best Bonds Now...They have quite a team over there.

     
  6. ElectricSavant

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    I am convinced that Buy & Hold investing will become distasteful to the masses. I believe as long as Trump is President we will be in a volatile, bullish environment. It is obvious that President Trump is getting things done and is not in the Political crowd. He is pissing a lot of old cronies off! That is what I hired him to do. President Trump "Drain the Swamp"! (said in President Reagan's voice "tear down this wall").

    So...Folks. Be prepared to spend the time needed for you investments. I am trying to capture momentum when it happens with the speculative part of this portfolio. If you are young enough speculate with a larger percentage than I do.

    ES
     
    #46 ElectricSavant, Jun 6, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2019
  7. ElectricSavant

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    The purpose of my Bond holdings in this ROTH is just to park cash. They are better than have cash as the ROTH does not pay Money Market Interest.

    MINT underperforms NEAR thus far.

    Here is the NEAR info
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/products/239854/ishares-short-maturity-bond-etf

    Here is the MINT info
    https://www.etf.com/MINT#overview

    NEAR has a 0.25% expense ratio and MINT has 0.35%.

    Why NEAR?
    1. Seeks to maximize current income through diversified exposure to short-term bonds
    2. Actively managed by BlackRock's Short Duration Portfolio Team
    3. Use to put cash to work, manage interest rate risk or diversify a bond allocation

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MINT FUND DESCRIPTION
    MINT is an actively managed fund that provides greater income and total return potential than money market funds by investing in ultra-short-term debt securities.

    MINT FACTSET ANALYTICS INSIGHT


    MINT is a low-cost, actively-managed fund that seeks higher current income than the average money market mutual fund by holding a hodgepodge of high-quality and ultra-short term USD-denominated debt issued by domestic or foreign issuers. The fund, which aims to keep the average duration under 1 year, targets only investment-grade securities. Aside from US-based debt, investors are also exposed to US dollar-denominated securities from developed countries and emerging markets. Liquidity-wise, it doesn't get much better than MINT in the fixed-income space: the fund trades in high volumes and its block liquidity is great. Its expense ratio is reasonable and the fund has quickly amassed sizable assets, making it one of the most successful actively managed ETFs ever launched.
     
  8. ElectricSavant

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    Hello Everybody! :) There are 861 views to this thread already. I am so pleased! Enjoy, contribute and lets follow the market together.

    No changes to the 26 holdings in this portfolio today on Thursday. No matter how busy I get...this Journal is the highlight of my day.

    This mornings Podcast:
    https://pwstreet.podbean.com

    The market is proving for the last 10 years that every sell-off is a buying opportunity...until it's not. If Tariffs cut into our economy Jerome Powell has our back and Trump is still our President. Consumers are showing no fear even with talk of a recession coming according to those Costco numbers.

    Perhaps the Federal Government should just stay out of the minimum wage. What do you folks think?

    The economy in Europe is struggling. India cut their interest rates again. Recently Australia cut their rates.

    The S & P 500 went up +0.61% today! This portfolio went up +0.51%. Think about this for a minute. This portfolio is keeping up with the S & P with 40% invested in Bond Funds, thus far! Those Aristocrats had a good day.

    10% Bonds < 3 Mo's +0.15%
    10%
    Bonds 3-6 Mo's +0.12%
    10%
    Bonds 6-18 Mo's +0.04% (NEAR), (MINT) Mint is disappointing me. I am waiting to find it's strong cycle. According to the chart it is in an upward cycle so we shall see this 6-18mo segment improve and fall in line with the other segments.
    10% Bonds > 18 Mo's +0.66%
    30%
    7 Aristocrats +2.56%
    30%
    Best Stocks Now +3.22

    https://m1.finance/Wq74jI5tU


    This portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by 2.18% from it's inception 16 days ago (05/22/2019).

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...3kKtbJK7tCeI6WMm1QdqVNKoc/edit#gid=1934597665
     
    #48 ElectricSavant, Jun 7, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2019
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  9. ElectricSavant

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    This mornings Podcast:
    https://pwstreet.podbean.com

    This portfolio is losing ground to the S&P 500 when the market goes up. Perhaps "anotherdevilsadvocate" is correct and there are too many bonds. I will be very sad when I must stop this thread. The next thread will probably be 28% bonds (or REITS), 20% Aristocrats and 52% Best Stocks Now. Fortunately each time I close down a portfolio I bank money. This market is very generous but beating the S & P proves to be tough. You folks have the formula for what I do. You really do not need the 7 Aristocrats.

    Are we going to a zero percent interest rate? Do you folks have any thoughts on this? Is Trump correct and should he abolish the FED?
    https://truthout.org/articles/trumps-war-on-the-fed/
    https://newspunch.com/trump-abolish-federal-reserve/

    (ROKU) is awesome. The Best Stocks Now slice made +1.29% today. I get the question, "How do you trade the Best Stocks Now Slice"?...I simply add stocks that present an A+ Gunderson Stock Grade and I hold them until they reach a "HOLD" rating. I do not hold ADR's. Currently, the portfolio holds 12 stocks in the Best Stocks Now Slice. (COUP) will be added Monday Morning and there are no sells so a rebalance will take place. https://m1.finance/QKYYumhd9

    This portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by 1.80% from it's inception 17 days ago (05/22/2019). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...3kKtbJK7tCeI6WMm1QdqVNKoc/edit#gid=2065839755

    ES
     
    #49 ElectricSavant, Jun 7, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2019
  10. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    I agree with Trump on almost everything.. but the more i learn about financial markets and politics, the more i realize what a bad idea this is for two reasons

    One.. politicians are near sided, their vision only extends as far as the next election cycle.. to grant them short term authority over the long term monetary health of an economy is financial suicide

    Two.. abolishing the recognized central bank will not prevent a defacto central bank from rising up in its place, as noted by the financial power consolidation of the Morgans and others in the 19th century

    However, i do wonder to myself if the Fed should leave interest rates up to the markets.. maybe instead of setting the floor, they could just match it.... central planning has had over 4,000 years to prove itself, and its proven time and time again to be a failure at best and murderous at worst
     
  11. ElectricSavant

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    TY Jrich for your wisdom. There are many good points in your post.

    I am not sure if we can compare Donald Trump to other politicians. Perhaps we could make him a Monarch.

    I guess keeping your enemies close is better than opening up the playing field to a new FED.

    God help us if the Liberals get what they want.

    ES

     
  12. ElectricSavant

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    #52 ElectricSavant, Jun 9, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2019
  13. ElectricSavant

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    The S & P gained 120.98 last week....Tariffs will not go in effect. Powell protecting against recession if need be.

    Q1 earnings season for the S&P 500 is over 99% done (496/500 companies have reported) and so far 0.5% have beat analysts estimates on the top line while 6.73% have surpassed estimates on the bottom line.

    The S&P is setting its sights to the 3k level as support holds and most likely the 2900 level will be breached soon if not this next week.

    views 1002

    [​IMG]
    Source: Schwab StreetSmart Edge®
     
    #53 ElectricSavant, Jun 9, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2019
  14. ElectricSavant

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    #54 ElectricSavant, Jun 11, 2019 at 12:16 AM
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2019 at 3:28 AM
  15. ElectricSavant

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    #55 ElectricSavant, Jun 11, 2019 at 10:27 PM
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019 at 9:41 AM
  16. ElectricSavant

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    Just wanted to show you where we are at.....

    This chart shows that when the interest rate of the 10-year Treasury bond inverts under the interest rate of the 3-month bond (the difference crosses under zero), it tends to occur near the end of an economic expansion (recessions shaded in gray):

    [​IMG]

    views 1120
     
  17. ElectricSavant

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    This Mornings Podcast: https://pwstreet.podbean.com There was a 27% spike in Mortgage Applications.

    Sell (GBT) tomorrow morning at 7:00(cst.) then rebalance.

    10% Bonds < 3 Mo's +0.18% (SHV)
    10% Bonds 3-6 Mo's +0.16% (ICSH), (FLOT)
    10% Bonds 6-18 Mo's +0.08% (NEAR), (MINT)
    10% Bonds > 18 Mo's +0.72% (IGSB), (SHY)
    30% 7 Aristocrats +3.44% (ABT), (APD), (CTAS), (SPGI, (ADP), (XOM), (ABBV)
    30% Best Stocks Now +4.05 (AMZN), (ALGN), (MTCH), (ROKU), (AMT), (EVBG), (NOW), (PCTY), (IDXX), (GPN), (SERV), (COUP), (KL), (PEN), (WDAY)

    https://m1.finance/3Wg5RaUrA

    This portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by 1.53% from it's inception 22 days ago (05/22/2019). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...3kKtbJK7tCeI6WMm1QdqVNKoc/edit#gid=1782984672

    views 1142
     
    #57 ElectricSavant, Jun 12, 2019 at 10:16 PM
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2019 at 11:05 PM
  18. ElectricSavant

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  19. ElectricSavant

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    To my surprise, the portfolio remains and will travel into next week. After seeing the recent performance dip down compared to the S&P I was expecting to end this thread. The S&P saw a 0.01% increase in ROI and this portfolio saw a 0.12% increase...even with the heavy Bond weighting. Can you imagine what it would do being 100% invested in the Best Stocks Now Slice? I just worry about the bear market. I do not have any idea what happens with the Best Stocks now app....I guess the strong picks that bubble to the top would be the inverse symbols. I am using the Best Stocks Now app and not Bill Gundersons Newsletter or managed portfolio. As I mentioned Bill has not backtested my use of his app. Again, I add the new symbols that bubble to the A+ rating and sell them only when they settle down to the HOLD rating (currently 15 holdings).

    Well... We shall see what the market brings this portfolio next week...Live or Die? What do you folks think?

    10%
    Bonds < 3 Mo's +0.23% (SHV)
    10% Bonds 3-6 Mo's +0.23% (ICSH), (FLOT)
    10% Bonds 6-18 Mo's +0.12% (NEAR), (MINT)
    10% Bonds > 18 Mo's +0.81% (IGSB), (SHY)
    30% 7 Aristocrats +3.77% (ABT), (APD), (CTAS), (SPGI, (ADP), (XOM), (ABBV)
    30% Best Stocks Now +4.30 (AMZN), (ALGN), (MTCH), (ROKU), (AMT), (EVBG), (NOW), (PCTY), (IDXX), (GPN), (SERV), (COUP), (KL), (PEN), (WDAY)

    https://m1.finance/jULUrlVGf


    This portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 by 1.47% from it's inception 24 days ago (05/22/2019).
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...3kKtbJK7tCeI6WMm1QdqVNKoc/edit#gid=1054413566

    views 1292
     
    #59 ElectricSavant, Jun 15, 2019 at 7:52 PM
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2019 at 8:13 PM
  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I have two questions and I give you my word these are coming from a position of respecting what you are trying to accomplish, despite the negative light they may cast.

    1) Do you have a threshold date at which you will move your money into S&P 500 if you are still unable to best the index?

    2) Do you have part of your money in S&P 500 now, both to mitigate the risk of this learning effort and also to mitigate the opportunity risk of not having your money exposed to the broad index? It might be interesting to divide your money in half with one half in S&P 500 and you twisting knobs and pulling levers with the other half. You would have your own benchmark.

    I will admit, I don't have positive thoughts about people beating the S&P on a long term basis. Quite a few have done it on a short term basis but it is basically impossible to do so, long term. Legions of people try it, like the folks who go to Vegas hoping to win, and legions of people feed money to the front runners, brokerage houses, and algos. The market is a rigged game.

    If you and I were to select a stock which hardly ever trades (say one that trades twice per week), and you were to post 100 shares for sale while I post a buy order on 100 shares, the order would go through but I would pay more than you would get and either 200 or 300 shares of volume would be reported. That's the front runners. We are electronically incapable of getting around them and legally required to transact our shares on an exchange which has been booby-trapped by front runners. Read Michael Lewis', Flash Boys. It's a great read and explains a good deal about why short term trades through brokerage houses are guaranteed to lose.

    It hurts me to think you are spending money and effort to underperform the market in a fixed game. You are the mouse crossing the construction site. I am cheering you on with all of my heart as though you were white sprinter at the Olympics but I have a knot in my stomach over what I'm pretty much certain is going to happen.

    Best wishes, ES. Sincerely.
     
    ElectricSavant likes this.

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