Let's assume you belive the cat still needs another bounce down to oblivion. What stocks would you buy before it all really crashes? What stocks would you buy after it happens? I honestly cant see or think of one that wont still flop on the next rip. Only one I have seen other than medical [ I refuse to contribute to this agenda sector, ] to play around with right this second is the oil tankers. After the next side of the big W I'm gonna look at pressious metal royalties, dollar stores, shell royal b, pawn shops, and alcohol. Any ideas or thoughts on this?
Winners aren't that hard to pick, however, losers are easier. Since you are trying to play this event, as a form of gambling, you might want to avail yourself to call options. I don't believe in gambling. I'm an investor. Unfortunately, I am weak and have purchased calls on a few companies that are clearly going to fail.
It's a good discussion. If I was expecting another for-sure dip, I'd probably just play short day/swing trades in an inverse ETF of the S&P or something. Because the fed is just propping the market up with endless supplies of money though, I don't expect another big dip, no matter how bad things get. At least not during this presidency (sorry for political injection). I'd expect certain industries to still have potential to go up, or remain steady. Pharmaceuticals will probably still act separate of the rest of the market. Streaming services during a market downturn due to covid will feel far less pain than most others. In another big dip I'd try to short things like entertainment with mass gatherings (theme parks, concert venues, theatres). Travel will remain down. Therefore airlines, cruise lines, travel agencies, etc. More potential upside would be food delivery type services (GRUB). Convenience stores like COST, KR, WMT, etc. will feel less pain than the overall market. Things I'd be looking to invest in LONG-TERM for a multi-year recovery, assuming a vaccine is at least a year away, are a lot of the things that have taken big hits PURELY because of covid. Travel, entertainment with miss gatherings, etc. I'm sure there's many more, but that's just off the top of my head right now.
The first wave of bankruptcies is almost upon us. Some large corporations are expected to file for protection this month. Specifically, Avis has indicated they need a bailout. Their business just stopped. They are selling inventory to buoy themselves but they missed a bond payment last week. Ford has not been doing well, the quarantine has to be a huge blow, and I can't imagine Avis selling near-new vehicles at fire sale prices is helping them a lot. I expect Ford to make it until later in the year. If the economy kicks back into high gear, they may even survive until 2022 but I don't see them as a long term part of the ecosystem without a bailout and some new management. Carnival Cruise Lines would be in deep trouble, were it not for Arabian money pouring in. Norwegian looks to be on the way out, as they indicate they cannot meat their financial obligations. Meanwhile, the oil patch is being attacked with what can only be described as an oil war being brought by Saudi and Russia. I expect much of the oil patch to survive but there is going to be a lot of bankruptcy and mergers this year. There are tons of other examples. In cases where economy deniers are proclaiming there is no problem, and companies are near the brink, I have been buying calls. It's been quite profitable. I also own a bit of PSQ with plans to expand this position quite a bit. My PSQ is currently down about 10% from my blended price but I'm bullish on a bear perspective so I have no plans to exit this position until very late this year.
Is there a reason you went with PSQ instead of an inverse ETF of the Dow or S&P? Seems like tech which is primarily in the Nasdaq would survive better than the S&P or DJI. Just curious.
Yes. I'm a bit guarded with my portfolio but, since it's you asking, I will share that I also own some inverse S&P 500. I see S&P 500 as a value trap and have for the last couple of years with my concern really starting to pique at the end of 2019. I did not buy at the end of 2019, so I haven't made a killing on it, but I did buy a bit in early February. The thing with S&P 500 is that I expect the index bubble to continue for a while. It might continue for the rest of my life, although I doubt it. Right now, a hot new startup company with world beating technology and ideas can hardly seem to get the time of day from the market. These companies were valued like found treasure in the 1990s. Old stoogy companies that have absolutely no innovation are valued into the stratosphere with PEs that hurt the eyes of a value investor like me. As best I can tell, all of this is caused by the index investing crowd. In fact, a good chunk of my portfolio is made up of $2B+ market cap companies that are working on getting to GAAP accounting. When they do, they are likely to be picked up by S&P and that will cause them to explode more than anything they can do on the operations side. We have ridden that elevator a few times and it has been sweet. Back to PSQ... I only hold it because I see pain all around and tech companies tend to be run by people with the least amount of tech savvy. So, short term, I see a bit of hardship in this sector once the pain kicks in. Meanwhile, I see a nuclear bomb going off in the oil sector but I expect them to mostly survive. The oil sector is where real men with battle hardened dispositions run companies in the same fashion as Ewing Oil. When a small oil company is purchased by a big organization with legions of accountants and a smooth investor relations department, I get out. This is one industry where machismo and grit still rule the landscape. Perhaps PSQ is a bad example but I see another dip on the near term horizon. I should also mention I'm 95+% long. These short term plays have expanded my cash considerably and that has allowed us to expand our long positions but, even now, I have no specific plans to short term trade. I suppose my approach could be classed as medium term trading.
I usually stick with EPS(earnings per share) based juniors just because putting cash in the bank every quarter means a more valuable company which can be accompanied by dividends, share buybacks, acquisitions, etc. But as of recent, the emphasis has been heavier on the gold resource and even gold speculation plays(less of this but still worth it). I would avoid anything in the travel, tourism and sporting industries as these will be hurting for a long time. But a day will come where they are valuable again.
Valuations are a deep discussion but I completely share the view of El Duderino. The vast majority of great companies are heavily infected with index fever. When a company is inserted into an index, and particularly the S&P 500, it is a lottery win for existing shareholders but sucks the value out of the equity. It's normal to see established, indexed, firms with PE ratios of 15~30. That's ridiculous. These may be great companies but only some of the most extreme growth companies have any value at all at PE 30. Meanwhile, there are a lot of unindexed companies that are undervalued. Most of these unindexed companies fail or struggle but they have attractive PE during this index bubble. Careful shoppers can find strong value in this group and a small handful of these companies do succeed. When they capture the attention of the S&P, they explode. Also, these unindexed companies were hit the worst in early March when things were most dire. I heavily expanded two of my positions in this space during that time at extreme value.
Im just learning about TVIX Im thinking of putting in a buy at 300$ and a sell at 650$ Any thoughts on this? Seems like a dumb play
