Ok so I hit my profit target for January already. Doesn't mean I am going to stop trading, but I am only going to trade A- set-ups or better until February. Will likely sit on my hands and do DD over the weekend unless something juicy comes across my radar tomorrow.
TWTR Trade type: Stock that retraced from highs but has the bulls potentially wrestling control away from the bears Entry & Stop Placement: If TWTR can break through all of the overhead resistance, it deserves my $ lol Target stock price: $26.29 (or wherever Reward is 3x Risk) Concerns I've been drinking but overall I have little concerns. It is possible but less likely that the open is above a key resistance and then the stock retraces. Positives If TWTR gets above the current price levels, I think it could get moving. TWTR's Earnings Report isn't until 2/8 so I have a few weeks that I can stay in this position if I want. Set-up Grade A+ (This doesn't mean that the markets won't stop me out, it means that this is the type of trade I should take every time I see because I feel like the probabilities are in my favor. WMT Trade type: Stock that retraced from highs but has the bulls potentially wrestling control away from the bears Entry & Stop Placement: Digging the resistance turned support and the Bullish strength shown after the initial failed breakout Target stock price: $103.84 (or wherever Reward = 3x Risk) Concerns Because the stop is relative wide, I had to lower my position sizing. That makes it harder to scale out and reduce risk if/when I get my desired profit levels. Positives A stop out means that a key support level AND a key trendline has been broken. I like that kind of confluence in my trades. Also, I like that the stock has to show a bit of bullish strength in order for my buy order to trigger. There is still a chance that there is a gap higher that executes my order but overall I am ok with that for the time being. Set-up Grade A
Congrats! Can I ask what your target % gain is for a month? If it's personal, no problem. I feel like you may have said it before but I don't feel like going through the last 5 pages to find out where! You may have said 10% monthly.
Damn TWTR gapped higher without me. Canceled my order but feels good to spot a high % trade and have it move directionally in the way I hoped. I was filled in WMT. Unfortunately I used my IRA account so I am not sure if I will count it towards my P&L in this account or not. No worries @T0rm3nted. My goals is an average of 10% gains monthly. Hitting that goal wasn't initially a sign to pare back my trading for (very) high % setups only, but it struck me yesterday that I should do it. I'll post more in-depth on where I stand % wise over the weekend.
Thanks, been following your journal as I find it very interesting and "real" if that's a good word to use. I like reading your thought process and seeing you adapt from learning experiences. Always fun to see someone hitting their goals too, especially aggressive ones like 10% monthly Keep up the good work!
Stopped myself out of SNAP after it gapped below the 50 Day Moving Average. I think the chances it rallies to (and above) $16 is much lower than when I entered the trade. Thanks to the spike in Implied Volatility, I believe i got out at breakeven (minus commissions). Nothing worth pulling the trigger on in the markets for me at the moment. Watching TXT for signs to take more profits: Thanks for the kind words. I want to try and keep myself honest so I am glad it comes across in the writing as well.
Sold another contract of TXT into strength What I like the most about this trade is that I actively managed my position after my profit targets were hit. Normally I would just sell half my position to lock in profits but this time I am actively managing my position and minimizing risk while at the same time maximizing my profit by waiting for great/poor price action to lock in profit as opposed to price levels.
That is pretty awesome to hear @BermudianOption! Grats and a job well done! ^^ THIS 100%! This is by far the best trade journal we have going on Stockaholics. It's been a while since we've had as active and as concise of a trading thread like this. It brings to mind another member of this community who passed away last year (@Tiptopptrader). As @T0rm3nted said, it's really cool hearing the thought process behind the trades. The in-depth analysis and charts that you put into each post is really good stuff. Keep up the great work, @BermudianOption!
TXT showing strength since I last check. It currently looks overextended but since I have unwound half my position already, I am going to force myself to sit on my hands: It does feel overextended though so I want to keep a close eye on it to make sure it can stay above the $60 level. Thanks BigBear0083. Hopefully more people start journals because I know I would still be banging my head against the wall if I didn't have the ability to review what I did right/wrong in trades. I just read about TTT in the other threads. RIP.
Obviously it could keep running, along with the rest of the market, but it's looking overextended like you mentioned. Above the upper BB now and getting pretty overbought now. If you hold it over the weekend, hopefully it keeps going up for you.
Jumped into NKE just now. I've been stalking it recently and saw a set-up that I liked. The DITM February Options were not liquid enough and the March options aren't listed yet, so I had to grab some April Calls. Extrinsic value I don't particularly need is included but I'll take liquidity over price any day. Ended up selling one contract around $60.07. I will keep the last contract open based on price action (it expires next week anyways technically)
Bi-Weekly Review Benchmark Comparison R-Related stats (Doesn't include open position) Largest Winner: 4.19R Largest Loser: -1.93R $$$ lost due to slippage on exit: -1.05R Progressions/Completed Goals for the time-period Started grading setups and resolved to only enter trades B or greater Get a better understanding of Price Action Review my Bi-Weekly performance Get to know TastyWorks platform better Follow successful traders on social media Invest 45% of my paycheck for the month Outperform S&P 500 in the two week period Rewards Redeemed Renewed my subscription to a weekly analysis of a trader whose style meshes nicely with mines Takeaways Commissions: In an effort to let winners run and ride trends longer, I have been scaling out of positions. This has helped my trading overall and I will continue to do it. However, because e*Trade charges a $4.95 base commission on top of $0.65/contract, it is starting to add up quickly. TastyWorks doesn't have the base fee at all so the most I will pay to unwind 1-2 contracts is $2 plus minimal exchange fees. Also, TastyWorks doesn't charge me to close trades. If/when TastyWorks gets contingency trading, I will be moving my money over with the quickness. Trading Platforms: Having played around with TastyWorks platform a bit, it is definitely built for net option selling instead of most option buying strategies. For example, their option chains cannot display Open Interest and Delta at the same time. I think every other platform I've ever used has that capability, even discount brokers. With that said, the overall options information they have (and their potential to add things in the future) outweighs any discount broker and probably any broker out there. I will have to get used to the platform and my initial thoughts are that it isn't as good as e*Trade's but long term I will be ok. Still waiting until mid-February at the earliest, which is when they are scheduled to add contingency orders to their platform. Mindset: After reviewing my trading, I saw that 53% of my YTD profits came from my 'set-it and forget it' SPY position (I bought two ITM calls about $10 ago that have been doing great). My first impression was "Darn it, I am doing well but it is because the market as a whole is doing well. If/when the markets change, I'll be losing money." However, after thinking about it some more, the proper takeaway is that first off, I am the person who decided to have a deep-in-the-money position on SPY so I should not take away the results of that trade. Additionally, I could have constructed a similar position for any stock, it just so happened that I committed to SPY. Overall, I should be holding bullish positions longer because they can make or break an entire quarter easily. CVX, MPC and to a degree COP are trades that were profitable but I could still be in those trades if I was paying attention to the bigger picture. Mentally, I have to be ok with locking in some profits and letting 60% or less of the position ride out.
Expectations (1/15 - 2/2) Portfolio Analysis I think that the S&P 500 is overextended. It may not have a selloff but perhaps develop a trading range to digest its gains to start the year. I am not looking for short opportunities, but I want to be cautious about overextending my portfolio to the upside. Currently, just under 60% of my capital is in cash and I don't want more than 60-70% in the market, because if the market pulls back, each stop out is -1R to my portfolio and that adds up in a hurry. This Friday, options expire for my TXT position and my short calls on AKS. Also, AKS's Earnings Report takes place towards the end of the month. I want to read up on these positions. Goals Review the last two weeks and set goals for the next two weeks: Completed Reach out to e*Trade for reduction in commissions: I don't see many people even trying to get their e*Trade commissions reduced so I am not sure what my odds. Worth a shot though. I paid about $400 in commission over about 2-3 solid months of trading in 2017. My 2018 commissions are already over $175. Continue to only enter B+ setups: It is your money, don't waste it on setups that are barely above average. Yes, the markets will run without you on occasion but in the long run, your account will thank you. Develop a game plan for the $$$ you contribute monthly: Thanks to profitable positions and pickier setup criteria, I don't have as much of a need for extra capital as I anticipated in my main trading strategy. I have redirected my monthly contributions to an alternate trading account and I need to figure out what strategy I want to utilize for it. Off the top of my head, synthetic covered calls, longer term positions in liquid ETFs, intraday price action trading and Earnings Reports bets come to mind. I need to sit down and plan something concrete. Increase R to match portfolio size: This is a general goal that I don't anticipate reaching it next week, but once my portfolio hits 50% profits, I want to update R (my risk per trade) to reflect that. Previously, R assumed that my total account value was 50*R (aka I was risking 2% of my portfolio every trade). Technically, my account started smaller than that (my account value was about 30-35*R initially) but currently my account value is greater than 50*R, but I still have R pegged at the same value so that I don't prematurely increase my risk. Once I hit 50% profits, I will increase R to be 50*R. I expect some additional volatility for my dollar value P&L as a result. Additional research on Price Action Trading: So far, I've read a Price Action journal on another forum and a preview of a an eBook. There are other additional resources that I want to take advantage of as well. Over the next two weeks, I'd like to review my notes on Price Action trading and dig into another online Price Action journal. As a reminder though, price action trading isn't intended to replace my current market analysis but optimize my entries and exits. Perhaps down the road it will be advantageous for shorter timeframes but I am not ready to cross that bridge. Rewards to Redeem for Next Period (If successful overall) Subscribe to a paid membership with Tradingview: I have been using the free version for years and haven't had any major issues. However, there are some custom timeframes and chart features that require a pro membership to utilize easily. If I wasn't doing well, I probably wouldn't purchase the paid version personally but it is a good way to reinvest money into my trading in a way that can make my analysis quicker and more accurate. Purchase a new table for my apartment: This is to be redeemed if/when my account value increases to 50% in 2018. Contributions can be factored into this goal since it is a lower level goal. This goal likely won't be hit until mid-February (after another contribution) at the earliest but I am documenting it while it is fresh on my mind.
Price rejection on the intermediate term chart. Closed my position on NKE early: Markets look to be pulling back and/or consolidating. I do like the Doji on AAPL since I want it to stay below $177.5 through next Friday and this doji means an increased likelihood that AAPL goes back into its trading range:
Sold 1 $278.5 Call against my SPY DITM call. Gives me ~$80 downside protection. Not much and my long call has a much higher delta than my short call but good practice for me on managing a position. I am willing to cap my gains short term since I am less bullish this week and the higher open is being faded thus far.
Closed out my position on WMT as well. Kinda formed a Head and Shoulders Pattern but only realizing it after I exited: Gave back a decent amount on TXT. Didn't expect such a sell off and wasn't actively watching the position. I will be closing out the position if it breaks below the nearest support
Well that 1% pop was unexpected lol. Was mostly in cash so didn't make much money my main trading account relative to the overall markets. I saw so sure of a pullback or retracement that I didn't do any DD yesterday and was vastly underprepared for a push higher. I am still not 100% convinced that this isn't price volatility leading to a deeper pullback but until price confirms that, I have to hold my nose and buy. There are a few stock I added to the watchlist, but only one stock is showing potential leading into the open: COST Trade type: Ascending triangle. Not an extended period of time but a tight trading range that allows me to get into a higher priced stock potentially. Entry & Stop Placement: Stop will be below the $191 area that was tested twice: Target stock price: $197.43 (or wherever Reward is 3x Risk) Concerns The markets are still due for a longer pullback imo. I am going to watch how things look in the premarket and potentially yank my order if I am concerned about a gap higher that is faded. Positives High priced stock with a tight stop means that I don't need huge price movement to have decent returns. Also, because the Earnings Report was in December, I can sit in this position for a month and a half if the price action deserves it. Set-up Grade A- (Longer consolidation or a more defined resistance area would score a higher grade)
agree. Read through this over the last 3 days. Glad I caught it here on page 5 and not page 30. Still did not take in nearly enough so I will be going through this again. I'm looking for some new trade strategy because mine is stupid and mostly for fun and little profit.
