Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

Bodacious Bull Blog / Swing Trades

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Bodacious, Jul 25, 2019.

  1. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Alright, here we go.....

    These plays will be mostly under twenty dollars a share and normal handling time will be from overnight up to ten trading days, there will undoubtedly be exceptions. The profit I'm looking for will be in the five to ten percent range, again, there will undoubtedly be exceptions.

    This is a lot of input to keep it caught up, I might not always have the time so please bear with me, besides that I tend to be cautious and take the slow approach to most things I dabble with.

    I'll post up my contest plays with info when applicable.

    Today's play is Sprint, I like the last candle, spike up, and I like the volume, again spike up, and I like the two areas below the last candle where there was price tightening / consolidation, I like the pre-market price action, I like the recent news feed involving Charter Communications.

    UntitledS.png
     
    David Nwokeabia and StockJock-e like this.
  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    6,676
    Likes Received:
    1,796
    Yes, another journal! Are these real plays, paper trades, or just contest picks? Just curious. Following along whatever they are!
     
  3. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    These will be paper trades for now. I'm new to the markets and I'm looking for my niche. I'm looking for a way that a new player can profit starting with small capital, lets say under $5k. Also, all positions will be bullish or longs if you prefer, as small capital players will normally not have the required account balance to play shorts. I'll be looking to buy in $100 blocks +/- 10% per share block.

    Today's play, Sprint is dropping like rock, the question is how long to wait before the buy and how much to buy while it is down low? The stock is trading now at $7.53 after pre marketing at over $7.70.

    $100 divided by 7.55 equals 13.24 so the share count should be at 13 at the current pricing, I'm looking to purchase 13 shares at $7.55.

    In essence these plays are about the little guy, the guy just starting out.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  4. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Here are links to articles that I have found useful in my pursuit.

    How To Find The Best Stocks To Buy Before They Breakout
    https://www.morpheustrading.com/blog/best-stock-breakouts/

    The Anatomy of Trading Breakouts
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/trading-breakouts.asp

    The Best Strategy For Swing Trading Stocks and ETFs
    https://www.morpheustrading.com/best-swing-trading-strategy

    Volume – 4 Simple Trading Strategies Using Chart Pattterns
    https://tradingsim.com/blog/volume-analysis-technical-indicator/

    There are many other sources of info that I have studied, to list them all would simply be to time consuming, those above are my favorites and I feel that they make for a good foundation in this instance.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  5. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Sprint is stagnant and as such I must wait another day or two, or three to see if there will be upward or downward movement, or more stagnation (consolidation). Aroon helps with tracking, although it should be noted that all indicators lag.

    aroon.png
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  6. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Next up, CETV, nice uptrend, I'm thinking this one can go a little more, maybe another 40-50 cents a share, maybe all tomorrow or maybe it will take a few days.

    It took roughly a year for this stock to go from top to bottom in it's last downtrend, the recovery uptrend has been much faster, only taking about seven months, I'm not insightful enough to know if the observation holds any significance, seems like there might be more enthusiasm to prop it up than knock it down.

    Bad things happened at the end of December 2018, I've looked at a lot of charts that have that very same bottom. December of 2018 was before I started looking at the market, and I haven't yet researched the events of that month, but I have noticed the pattern.

    Untitledjyry.png
     
    David Nwokeabia likes this.
  7. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Aroon looks good, relative strength indicator (RSI) looks good, volume looks good, check, check and check.

    UntitledWJP.png
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  8. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Sprint up 5.5% from the $7.55 buy price, now at $7.85. A day late for the contest.

    A sell for a 5% profit will require the price to be at or above $7.93, almost there now.

    Update, up $7.90 as I have been typing this reply.

    Caught a small glimpse of Sprint at $7.93, could get out there and move along, or I could press on looking for a bit more, maybe $8.00+.

    New 52 week high......$7.97, I'm very optimistic.
     
    #8 Bodacious, Jul 26, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2019
    David Nwokeabia likes this.
  9. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Sprint, out at $8.00 for a profit of $5.85 over the course of approximately 24-48 hours.

    If I can consistently produce similar results over the long run without incurring crippling loses I will have found what I am looking for.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  10. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    This post is pointed at any burgeoning market analysts who may be following this thread, you old hands most likely already know this stuff.

    This post partially explains proper entry points on break outs. As it gives one "for example", it tells me that there are more "for examples" that aren't described, more research will be needed with regards towards support and resistance levels, but this is still a good primer.

    entry points.png
     
    #10 Bodacious, Jul 27, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2019
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  11. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    This thread is a study guide for those who are green to the markets, myself included, my hope is to simplify.

    Alright, lets look closer at support and resistance.

    I see support and resistance as defining buy and sell zones. We don't want to buy at the top of a zone, we don't want to buy at or near an establish resistance level because we can't be sure that the price will move above that resistance, if we do buy at the top we can get stuck with a price that stagnates or falls without ever pushing through the resistance, a scenario that often creates losses.

    What we want to do is buy as the price first goes above a resistance level and holds, and for even less risk we would like two closing days above the previous resistance level, the second day being confirmation. After a second day close above the previous resistance level that same resistance level may become a support level.

    I have yet to see it in print, but, it seems to me that the wider the buy/sell (support/resistance) area is the better it is for the player who gets in at the bottom as the price first crosses above the original resistance and holds. Buying down low in a wide range support/resistance area allows for better odds for profit as opposed to buying up high against an establish resistance.

    Here is another peculiarity with support and resistance values, they are often in flux, they are not static, they change as levels go up and down , new territory, new support and resistance values, new high, new value, new low, new value, and as such they should be verified daily at a minimum if a buy or sell is planned.

    So, to review, we want to buy when the price first holds above an established resistance level and we would like a wide range between the new support level (the previous resistance level) and the next resistance level.


    Support and Resistance Reversals
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp
     
    T0rm3nted and David Nwokeabia like this.
  12. David Nwokeabia

    David Nwokeabia New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2019
    Messages:
    8
    Likes Received:
    4
    You really love trading Sprint. Sometimes guys can become an expert at playing a particular stock.
     
    Bodacious likes this.
  13. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Yeah, get in at the bottom of the price range, get out as it nears the top of the range, wait for it to cross above resistance and confirm and then buy back in, rinse and repeat.
     
  14. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Going to take a look at MOBL (Mobileiron Inc.) in this post, also going to link up two sites where support/resistance values can be found.

    I use these two sites to find and confirm support/resistance values.
    http://www.stockfa.com/stock.php?symbol=MOBL
    This second link is a tout type site in that in recommends buys or holds or sells. I don't always agree with their advice. Take for instance their buy recommendation on MOBL, they are confident that price will push through resistance that is only 4-5 points above the latest close, personally I would prefer to see it close above the next resistance and hold before buying. The next up range is from 7.10 up to 8.25.
    http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?symbol=MOBL

    Now there can be any number of different scenarios that can play out, the price could stagnate and move along just under the 7.09 resistance, it could be there for days, conversely it could also go just above the 7.09 resistance and stagnate there, the price could rise, the price could fall, you get the picture...

    I highlighted the 6.21 support because in that area would of been the desired entry if working in the current zone, the range being from 6.21 up to 7.09.

    MOBL is a chart that I will watch for a day or two, or even three, see what happens.

    Untitled mob.png
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  15. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Another look at MOBL.

    Originally watched on Friday 7/26, posted above on 7/28, and now revisited on Friday 8/02.

    The item finished above the $7.10 support number on good volume, looking for an up day Monday, A good Monday close would be between $7.45-$7.65, or go the long haul and blow up over $8.67 ($8.68+ probably isn't going to happen).

    Here is a classic case of support values changing on the fly. The values from 7/26 were unchanged until close today, after the close today the values were readjusted.

    7/26 (Last Friday)
    Resistance 1: 7.09--------Resistance 2: 8.28
    Support 1: 6.21------------Support 2: 5.67

    8/02 (This Friday)
    Resistance 1: 7.42---------Resistance 2: 8.67
    Support 1: 6.52-------------Support 2: 5.96
    moobl.png
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  16. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    More on MOBL, please see above post for more detail.
    moblllllll.png
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  17. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    The following article gives details on short interest in MOBL

    Looking At Share Counts
    Traders seem to have a heavy interest in the counts of shares both available and outstanding. In regard to MobileIron, Inc., currently there are 106.87M with a float of 95.96M. This means that out of the total of 106.87M shares of MOBL in existence today, 95.96M are able to be traded by the public.

    Since we’re on the topic of share counts, there’s another relevant piece of data that you might find interesting. That would be the short percentage of the float. Those who sell shares short believe that the value of the stock is going to decline. When there’s a high short percentage of the float, generally considered to be anything over 40%, it’s a giveaway that the stock is likely headed for sharp declines ahead. Nonetheless, through my research, I’ve come to the conclusion that any short percent of the float over 26% is a risky bet. When it comes to MOBL, the short percent of the float is 1.56%

    Please read the entire article at:
    https://iwatchmarkets.com/2019/08/02/mobileiron-inc-mobl-stock-heres-why-its-gaining/
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  18. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Back again, above we looked at several indicators, Aroon, RSI, volume, moving averages, and we kinda looked at catalyst when looking at news cycles, today something a little different. These indicators are "Squeeze / Momentum" and "Bollinger Bands" and "Keltner Channels".
    The following video gives a good lesson, to skips the authors intro move ahead to 4:25

    Ticker QD with bands squeezing in an uptrend, looking to have price and momentum turn upward sometime early next week, resistance at 9.20 should be surpassed.
    Untitled.png
     
  19. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2019
    Messages:
    135
    Likes Received:
    92
    Here's another one with a little different profile, but with bands squeezing, again this one should be watched into next week, looking for an upward breakout with a momentum upswing.
    5 cent.png
     

Share This Page