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BYND - Beyond Meat

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by StockJock-e, May 2, 2019.

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  1. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    [​IMG]

    At Beyond Meat, we believe there is a better way to feed the planet. Our mission is to create The Future of Protein® – delicious plant-based burgers, sausage, crumbles, and more-- made directly from simple plant-based ingredients. By shifting from animal, to plant-based meat, we are creating one savory solution that solves four growing issues attributed to livestock production: human health, climate change, constraints on natural resources and animal welfare.
     
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  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    An interesting IPO, its rare to get excited about a food services company, but there is a lot of buzz here!

    Beyond Meat IPO Raises $241 Million as Veggie Appetite Grows
     
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  3. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    See them at grocery stores all the time, but I haven’t tried it due to the prices :p If anyone tried it here, does it taste close to the real meat?
     
  4. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    There was a long thread on reddit about this.

    Surprisingly a lot of people say its good!

    Almost all vegetarians love it, but of more interest to me are the opinions of meat eaters like myself.

    Their feedback was also pretty good, but a few complained about the texture and taste which is understandable because its not actual meat.

    Ill be interested in trying it out the next opportunity I get.

    This IPO is probably one of the best marketing tactics they have used!
     
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  5. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Beyond Meat surges 163% in the best IPO so far in 2019

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/beyond-meat-ipo.html

    In the strongest market debut so far this year, Beyond Meat shares surged 163% Thursday, giving the maker of plant-based meat substitutes a market value of $3.77 billion.

    The company’s opening trade of $46 was later than expected, hitting after noon Thursday. Then, after shares soared 125%, trading was paused due to volatility. When trading resumed, the stock rocketed even higher. The company is trading on the Nasdaq under the symbol BYND
     
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  6. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

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    Cramer featured the product on his show, and even he wouldn't take a bite of the stuff...…. Where I come from, a burger without meat already has a name... Its called bread
     
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  7. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Nothing can replace real meat (yet), but I welcome anything with high protein content that tastes good and is priced cheaper.

    Im very interested in lab grown meats for that reason.
     
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  8. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Onepoint272 likes this.
  9. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I'm a meat eater. I've tried it.

    It tastes great. As good as meat. Extreme few would notice the difference.

    The long answer.....

    It tastes like meat but doesn't taste exactly like beef. It's savoury. I'd say it's better in some ways but it's missing something too. Again, this is from someone who paid close attention. I tested them side by side at A&W and I'd say I prefer the Beyond Meat burger but only by a small margin.

    My wife makes home made burgers that are better than the Beyond Meat burgers but they are better than any burger I've ever had so it's not really a fair comparison.

    If the future is Beyond Meat burgers, and it probably is, I'd happily stop eating beef burgers.
     
    #9 TomB16, May 2, 2019
    Last edited: May 3, 2019
  10. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Ill believe when I eat it! :D
     
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  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Beyond Meat (BYND) Brings Home The Bacon
    Fri, May 3, 2019

    Yesterday Beyond Meat (BYND) IPO'd at $25/share, valuing the business at about $1.5bn versus trailing 12-month revenues of less than $70mm. The company has been operating in VC-funded private markets for a long time, developing meat alternatives appealing to the health conscious, climate-concerned, and animal welfare-oriented consumer base that wants "meat" without some of its negative externalities. While the pricing of the IPO sounds aggressive, price action since has been extreme. The stock has surged more than 180% from its IPO price, trading in the low-$70 range and holding opening day gains as-of this writing.

    [​IMG]

    The nose-bleed 60.9x price-to-sales ratio BYND now carries sounds absolutely ridiculous, but there are actually 49 companies in the Russell 3000 with a more aggressive valuation and another 140 for which data is not available. Obviously, BYND's valuation relative to its sales is extremely aggressive, but given its long history in the private markets, describing it as an extremely high-growth company isn't without precedent among current listed stocks in the US.

    [​IMG]

    While it's hard to get excited about a stock that has so much optimism priced in already, we should note that BYND's economics don't actually look as bad as some other IPOs and businesses we have come across. This is a real business, with real demand, what appears to be pricing power, and potential to grow very profitably. In the table below, we show annual data from Beyond Meat's S1. Revenue has more than doubled the last two years, with the volume of meat substitute products rising by almost 5x in two years. As the company has scaled up its product offering, it has raised prices from an average net of $4.07 per pound to more than $5.70 per pound. At the same time, it has reduced discounting from 81 cents per pound in 2017 to 63 cents per pound this year.

    On top of raised prices, the company has been able to reduce the cost of goods sold per pound, falling from $5.65 in 2016 to $4.62 today (down 16% YoY). Those positive economies of scale suggest that strong revenue growth will feed through to increasing profit margins. So far, that's what's happened: for each pound sold in 2016, BYND lost $1.59 on a gross basis, but gross profits rose by $1.74 for each additional pound sold in 2017 and by $2.22 cents per pound from 2017 to 2018. That's led to gross profits of $1.15 per pound in 2018, and operating losses of $1.84 per pound in 2018. While the company used to lose money on each additional pond ($1.60 from 2016 to 2017), incremental pounds sold generated 6 cents of operating income per pound from 2017 to 2018. Assuming the company can keep up sales momentum and reduce costs across that higher volume, profitability is very attainable.

    [​IMG]

    One last point on the BYND IPO: it's part of a boom in average gain on the first day of trading. In the chart below we show the rolling three month average gain from IPO price to first close since 1995. The tech bubble really stands out on this chart! The average IPO went from a ~20% pop in the late 1990s to more than doubling! After 2001, pops returned to a much more normal 10-20% range, with some brief drops into negative territory during 2008, 2010, and 2016. With the most recent round of IPOs, though, we've seen the return of high average pops, and the current rolling three month average has shot up to nearly 30%. That's the highest since the tech bubble, and highest for any period other than the tech bubble since 1995. So far, we've been pretty skeptical of claims that we're in the same sort of period of market excess as the tech bubble (see "Best and Worst Performing IPOs" from April 23rd, link). This is one indicator, though, that points to the current IPO market being a little too hot. Other indicators, as discussed in that prior post, aren't sending the same signal...for now, at least.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    IMO anyone buying at these irrational levels deserves to get hurt. It's not even a new company and competition in this space is about to heat up big time. It's a food company at the end of the day, not a tech company and its market cap is completely unwarranted right now.
     
    #12 Rock Sexton, May 6, 2019
    Last edited: May 6, 2019
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  13. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    But if we all go long and eat nothing except this burger every day for every meal.... lets do the math ;)
     
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  14. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Well this is a surprise, hello $80's!
     
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  15. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    I love the product and i see the need but I don't see any barriers to competition in this space. Beyond seems to be alone, at the moment, at the front of the vegetable protein pack but there is no reason why someone else can't go into their kitchen and concoct a mushroom based (or whatever) meat substitute that is as good or better.

    For that reason, it seems dramatically over priced to me.

    I'd love to own it, just not at these prices
     
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  16. Lonnie Ray

    Lonnie Ray Active Member

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    This will fall hard once profit taking and shorting starts to set in. Good for those that got in early.
     
  17. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    When does shorting get enabled?
     
  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Active Member

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    These guys prefer the Impossible over the Beyond Meat by a narrow margin.

     
  19. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Meat Popsicle

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    Yup. The clearing houses aren't lending the shares out yet. It's only a matter of time before the big drop. This company would need to average something like 50% revenue increases every year for the next 10 years and 10% margin to justify this price. It's absurd when you think about the competition that is going to swarm into this space.
     
  20. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    Good one. I've tried veggie burgers from Trader Joe's. Difficult to cook on a grill because they fall apart. Beyond Meat sounds like a line a girl would tell her boyfriend after the lust has worn off, conversation gets boring and she leaves him. Her parting words would be, "I'm beyond meat, dear".
     
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