A month ago, when I started seriously considering SHTF scenarios, I looked at shorting Fincantieri. Ultimately, I didn't know anything about the company so couldn't make the investment. I will not risk our nest egg on my own ignorance and hubris. The thinking behind shorting Fincantieri is the new market in cruise ships is going to go away once they are going for pennies on the dollar on the used market. I ended up turning my attention to CCL. I didn't have the guts to short it so ended up selling a put. So far, so good.
I still have the puts. I need more people to realize this car is on fire and speeding toward a cliff before I unload them. This is a great time to profit from the pacifying language put forth by the media on the state of our financial health. They are definitely slowing down the financial panic. Lots more lows ahead.
That was the second fastest money I've made in my life. Holy cow. That performed almost as well as OptionSlayer's $50 Robin Hood account.
It's going up this morning. Im already up $100 on my investment. Edit: Sold 75 dollars up. May not be exciting for you big investors but with how small my portfolio is it's exciting for me hahaha. Edit: Bought back in at $14.56, we'll see if it goes up some more.
CCL is coming back up because.... I have no idea. I'm going to sell another put at $17.50 and take more money from the folks who think everything will be back to normal in a couple of months.
Yup lol I was so optimistic then reality started to sink in. I think it’s time to sell. I made some decent money since Tuesday and sold yesterday which I should have held longer. But my guess is it drops in the next day or so.
Just sold. Last night it went down and it shot back up again this morning. I made another big profit. I'm not going to be greedy, too volatile atm. Better safe than sorry as they say. Edit: Couldn't sleep, checked CCL, down to 16 overnight. Definitely buying back in tomorrow. Haha. Edit: Bought back in at $14.60, we'll see if I'll regret that Monday lol. I might...but no matter what great price I'm okay with it.
Sorry. I am confused. Are/were you buying puts or selling on CCL? selling puts + falling stock =bad news for seller...no?
Gotcha. Thanks. I feel the same. This is part personal bias, but im so scared of airlines and cruise ships, always. I think they are always one small catastrophe away from bankruptcy. Lol
How low will cruiselines go? I cant imagine people will be excited to get back onto ships any time this year.
To be less dismissive of the industry, I think cruising will continue, in some form. Adventure cruises to the antarctic, for example, are likely to continue. The beardy weirdy folks who take those cruises will put on masks and go on their adventures. I'm sure they will be impacted a bit, though. People like my wife and older people, who are the bread and butter of the vacation cruise industry, will have a much harder time justifying it. My wife loves cruising but I can't imagine her going on one for a long time. If the industry shrinks by 100% for 6 months and then 50% of the business returns, I doubt it can survive. If the luxury cruise industry dies, that will take out the economies of the entire Caribbean region. I'm holding onto cash because I don't have a strong idea of what the world will look like in 24 months. To a large degree, it will look the way we want it to look. The businesses we want to save will still be here. Most everything else will be gone. I can't imagine subsidising or nationalizing a cruise line but I've heard of crazy things. I can't imagine social distancing or a lot of extra cleaning on a boat, either. If you cut the number of staff and guests in half, the entire profit model of the boat goes out the port hole. It will require a whole new pricing structure. Hanging onto my $18.50 CCL puts, for now.
I notice, a couple of times in this thread, I wrote "sell a put". I've never been short puts for CCL. I've only purchased and then sold held puts. For years, I've been selling puts on companies I like. It's been a way to slightly optimize gains for companies I want to own. Perhaps this is the source of my error. Buying the first tranche of puts on CCL in late February was the first time I recall ever being long puts. Almost exclusively, I'm a boring long hold investor.
Eskom and SAA, now set for partial “privatisation,’ says The Wolf of Wall Street, Mr. Omar Abdulla…?? by Nandika Pillay (25 March 2020—SABC News) The Wolf of Wall Street, Mr. Omar Abdulla who addressed members of the business community this afternoon, spoke from his Sandton home, amid the corona virus outbreak, stating that South African State owned entities (SEOs) Eskom and South African Airways, (SAA) are ‘falling hard,’ and that partial privation is required from the Chinese and American investors of The Omar Abdulla Group. “Our companies have felt the brunt of the Covid 19 virus, with shares in these companies, falling almost 30% since the outbreak, increasing debt payments and loss of income as less people are travelling.’ noted Deputy President of SA, Mr. David Mabuza. Mabuza who spoke briefly to parliament this week, cemented his concerns, and was asking for bailout agreements from Boeing, Comair, Airbus and British Airways. “We owe our creditors to the tune of R2 trillion rand, with a value of only R1 trillion rand for these assets, Eskom at R750 billion rand, and SAA at R250 billion rand.’ he told Reuters. Speaking on behalf of Boeing, Ceo of Boeing, Mr. Dave Caihoon quirked that SAA will never learn from their mistakes after lending monies at high-interest rates, and purchasing Aircraft that were too many. “If they cannot keep to their words of paying their instalments to us on time, how can we help them. Once we receive some stimulus from the United States government we will relieve the pressure, amid this Corona Virus, outbreak.’ Abdulla who further elaborated that Eskom was in ‘dire need,’ of funding from China and The United States says that load-shedding in the country was causing businesses to fail, loss of confidence in the economy, and loss of jobs in the marketplace. “When I address members from Gauteng within the week, we will work out ways, of purchasing less than 1% of these companies, at market share.’ The Johannesburg Stock Exchange *JSE* reported this afternoon that major shares and stocks were feeling the ‘blood In the water,’ with the current down-grade of shares throughout the world. “Markets have fallen and fallen, and when will we find a bottom in this mess. Travel industries have fallen, oil has fallen, and the rand has gone to the dogs.’’ However, low oil prices are good for ESKOM, as the coal and mining sector could save costs of upto R100 billion rand, squeaked Ceo of Eskom, Mr. Andre Du Ruyter. The Economic Times reported that The Omar Abdulla Group was fast becoming one of South Africa’s fastest growing companies, including owning Instagram SA, LinkedIn SA, Bitcoin SA and Forex SA. “Their bids on offer include a one percent share in Eskom and SAA, totalling, R20 billion rand, with shareholders of the company, Lifestyle Aircraft and Instagram SA.’ Concluding his remarks to The Sunday Independent, Abdulla leaked that he was ready to rescue the failing Eskom and SAA, if agreements between the SEOs are agreed too. “Hopefully The Omar Abdulla Group can purchase these shares at low prices, and when Covid 19 becomes the thing of the past, we can see the rewards of our investment.’ Message 9 of 11 (237 Views) Add Tag... Reply 0 Accept as Solution Highlighted footprints Member Posts: 21 Re: FF News: The Omar Abdulla Group Options a week ago COVID 19 CASES TO REACH ONE MILLION, with markets STILL “Bearish,’ says The Wolf of Wall Street…?? by Aaliah Khota (3 April 2020—Reuters) The Wolf of Wall Street, Mr. Omar Abdulla who is currently In isolation in his Washington home, says that ‘new cases,’ in The United States, Spain, Italy and Britain have ‘jumped up,’ within the l a s t several weeks, and expects markets to continue their downward spiral amid the Corona Virus. “This Chinese Virus has already cleaned out so many old age homes and Metropolitan districts, that we have to quarantine our Covid 19 patients in states that are less affected. Thus far, high alerts have been issued in New York, California, Philadelphia and Dallas.’ President of The United States, Mr. Donald Trump echoed. Whilst prices across the globe have already remained cheap, markets are still open, expecting cases to drop by May or even June, reported BBC NEWS. “Europe is infected beyond control, Italy is in a mess, Spain is in shambles, and Britain cannot cope with high infections in the hospitals as we expect more cases.’ looped The World Health Organization. Speaking to Footprints in Washington, local resident, Ms. Jenifer Samson noted that Washington has been on a ‘lock down,’ as more cases come through. “President Trump is being too optimistic to open for the country for business. As the curve flattens and starts to drop, that’s when we can only plan to open up our borders. With the high number of cases reaching one million, Easter will have to be spent at home.’ The Omar Abdulla Group which owns shares into Bitcoin SA, Forex SA, Instagram SA, Twitter SA and South African Airways noted that he had just purchased more shares In some companies, expecting the curve to drop within the next few months. “We are in close negotiations to free up some more money so that we may purchase more of these blue-chip companies at low prices.’ Other celebrities including Justin Bieber, Selena Gomez, Kim Kardashian, Kendell Jenner, Christiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi kicked that they have been spending their time in isolation playing football, watching videos on The Omar Abdulla Group, spending quality time with family, and studying. Meanwhile, The Washington Times concluded that The Wolf of Wall Street, Mr. Omar Abdulla was speculative on South African companies, as the third world country, has showed some positive outcomes. “I am confident that the rand will do much better, with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s strict approach to lock down the country. He is a strong minded president and my talks with him, could see more buying into Eskom, SABC News, and other SEO companies.’
I wonder if the saudis owning 8% of ccl will improve the liquidity of the business or impact the chance of bailout Given the current political climate, I suspect ccl just improved it's chance of bailout.
