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CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by bigbear0083, Mar 31, 2016.

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  1. fidelgeorge

    fidelgeorge Well-Known Member

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    Held support yet again & now threatening to breakout. If successful it could run another 20+ pts again quickly
    CMG.png
     
  2. fidelgeorge

    fidelgeorge Well-Known Member

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    CMG is pulling back after a monster rebound. CMG is a buy below $400.
     
  3. Gray Wolf

    Gray Wolf Well-Known Member

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    I am so in the bear camp on CMG. The recent rise is strictly caused by Ackman's accumulation, not due to any "recovery" or improved fundamentals. The only temptation I have on this right now is that I could by a long put for around 1900 bucks to sell 100 shares of this at $410 bucks a share. Won't do it, but it is tempting.

    Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman has started a 9.9 percent activist position in Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG). Stifel’s Paul Westra reiterated a Sell rating on Chipotle, with a price target of $215.

    The Ackman Stake

    “We cannot fathom Pershing’s operational or mathematical investment thesis. Frankly, we predict that Pershing's activist effort is most likely to accelerate and further assure CMG's “tail operational risk” of increasing management and hourly turnover rates,” Westra mentioned.

    Related Link: Ackman's Stake In Chipotle Meaningless In The Absence Of Sales Recovery

    The analyst pointed out that in order to justify Chipotle’s current stock valuation, either one has to assume that the economic principal of diminishing returns doesn't apply to the brand and/or the mathematical constructs of Discounted Cash Flow don't apply to the stock.

    Economic Laws Don’t Apply?

    “The law of diminishing returns has been a core principal of economics… and is especially evident within the US restaurant business where concept profitability always follows a well-defined “market-maturation curve”,” Westra stated.

    Accordingly, brands usually achieve “Peak Returns” when they achieve an individual market penetration level of 50-60 percent. From here, returns decline over time.

    “If this pesky law applies to Brand Chipotle, then regardless of what CMG’s “new-normal” 2017-19 EPS run-rate becomes, we believe CMG will soon afterwards become a +7 percent net-income grower, forever,”
     
  4. blypelako

    blypelako Active Member

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    I closed my position on CMG some time ago. Too much turbulence to my liking lately.
     
  5. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Was just thinking about Ackmann's position. The weakness in his stake is that he cannot buy any more shares (already 9.9% of the float). So CMG is up to $435, but how will he get it past $450?
    [​IMG]
     
  6. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Analyst Upgrade/Downgrade Update

    Brokerage firm:
    Nomura
    Change: Coverage Reiterated/Price Target Changed
    Previous Rating: Neutral
    Current Rating: Neutral
    Previous Price Target: $405
    Current Price Target: $372
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    CMG down again today on a downgrade...

    Chipotle's (CMG) stock rating was cut to 'underperform' at Raymond James on Tuesday.

    [​IMG]
     
    Tiptopptrader likes this.
  8. LloydWCoutee

    LloydWCoutee Active Member

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    It's interesting that Pershing Square was approved to increase their stake in $CMG today while downgrades continue coming in.
     
  9. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Analyst Upgrade/Downgrade Update

    Brokerage firm:
    Raymond James
    Change: Downgrade
    Previous Rating: Market Perform
    Current Rating: Underperform
    Previous Price Target: N/A
    Current Price Target: N/A
     
  10. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Analyst Upgrade/Downgrade Update

    Brokerage firm:
    RBC Capital Mkts
    Change: Coverage Reiterated/Price Target Changed
    Previous Rating: N/A
    Current Rating: Outperform
    Previous Price Target: $485
    Current Price Target: $465
     
  11. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Reported after close today (10/25/16)
    Earnings: EPS $1.32 Revenue $1B
    Estimates: EPS $1.59 Revenue $1.09B

    Down 2.01% after hours
     
  12. Tiptopptrader

    Tiptopptrader Well-Known Member

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    CMG picked up a downgrade

    upload_2016-10-26_6-35-26.png
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    looks like lowest levels here since the week of july 15th 2013
     
  14. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Summer lows broken, down it goes!
     
  15. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    @JerryM has been saying this was way overvalued for quite awhile now. Looks like we have our very own Analyst
     
  16. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Analyst Upgrade/Downgrade Update

    Brokerage firm: Credit Suisse
    Change: Downgrade
    Previous Rating: Outperform
    Current Rating: Neutral
    Previous Price Target: N/A
    Current Price Target: N/A
     
  17. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Analyst Upgrade/Downgrade Update

    Brokerage firm: Deutsche Bank
    Change: Coverage Reiterated/Price Target Changed
    Previous Rating: N/A
    Current Rating: Sell
    Previous Price Target: $340
    Current Price Target: $280

    Analyst Upgrade/Downgrade Update

    Brokerage firm: Maxim Group
    Change: Coverage Reiterated/Price Target Changed
    Previous Rating: N/A
    Current Rating: Sell
    Previous Price Target: $325
    Current Price Target: $300
     
  18. Gray Wolf

    Gray Wolf Well-Known Member

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    yea, I should have bought that long put option at the 410 strike that I mentioned early September. :D
     
  19. Tiptopptrader

    Tiptopptrader Well-Known Member

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    Chipotle Plunges After Saying That Customer Service Has Slipped

    upload_2016-12-6_6-48-51.png
     
  20. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Customer service slipped?

    What does that mean?
     

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