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COVID-19 Winter Cases Investment Speculation

Discussion in 'Investing' started by roadtonowhere08, Oct 19, 2020.

  1. roadtonowhere08

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    I have set myself a deadline of New Year's to get back into the market for two reasons:

    1. I believe any market panic from new COVID-19 cases will be over by then.
    2. I am starting to think the odds of a massive drop like in March might be less than I previously thought.

    I think all the chaos that might ensue soon might be glossed over by the markets for largely one reason: there is nowhere else to put money. That alone might have the market plow through pretty much anything. It is not at all what I had envisioned the market reaction would be like, but seeing what is going on, it does make perfect sense.

    With all that in mind, I am now intending on buying at the meaningful dips along the way and just be done with it.

    I am curious what you guys think about the short term influence COVID's imminent resurgence will have on the market, all things considered.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  2. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    While there is a strong possibility of another Covid spike, we learned from March. Covid could rise, but the market has adjusted. The market already knows what to expect.
     
  3. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I agree to an extent, but will also push back that the Fed under a different administration (if that's what we see) may not allow the money printer to go off the rails as much, which is ultimately what is propping up the market.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I hope that is true but I don't believe it's certain.

    If things always contract under a Democratic administration, people will associate poor market performance with the Democratic party. If Democrats were strong leaders, I would believe we are up against low growth years in the event of a Biden victory. I question that, however. Democrats have the backbone of an over-cooked strand of spaghetti in their quest to be loved so it's going to interesting to see if they go the responsible way or pass the buck down the road. Of course, we may never know what Democrats would do in this situation.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  5. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    Every administration crafts policy which favors certain segments. A "law & order" administration will send up the value private prisons, gun manufacturers, etc. If the police are defunded, and crime spikes, home security system installer ADT will benefit. If more money is pumped into medical care, then everything in that area goes up.

    No matter who wins, money is spent. There's a profit.

    My blue bet is medical. Anything healthcare. Nursing home REIT. Hospital REIT. Telemedicine. Robotic surgery.

    My red bet goes defense. More fighter planes, drones, missiles, nuclear submarines. And all the IT and AI to develop the war machine of the future.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  6. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    Thumbs up
     
  7. emmett kelly

    emmett kelly Well-Known Member

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    if P, then Q. if you accept the proposition that the COVID resurgence is imminent, then you should buy drug equities today.
     
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    To a significant extent, quantitative easing is a gift to investors like us. Even traders, inherit some of that money.

    One of the best hedges against inflation is to own companies.

    Print, baby. Print. :thumbsup:

    Of course, QE is a long term beat down on the lowest income levels and people who do not invest in inflation indexed devices. That, however, is a social problem, not an investing problem.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  9. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Screenshot_2020-10-08-00-02-01_kindlephoto-231014578.png
    There will be growth. Progressive ideas about social justice and the environment could be profitable. Diversion and rehab programs could line the pockets in healthcare. Tons will be spent on solar panels, wind farms, and green transportation. Tesla buyers could be eligible for another tax rebate or credit. E85 and BioDiesel could replace gasoline. Sustainable ranching.....there will be growth for The Green New Deal.
    Or a gun. Apparently firearms sales have surged.
    Screenshot_2020-09-16-18-47-54_kindlephoto-20060291.png
    Hard for me to feel bad. I'm working class. Blue collar job. No inherited money. Even the lowest income level, a guy like me, could budget, save, and invest accordingly. I don't have much. But a little bit is better than nothing. I firmly believe that every income level is capable of saving and investing.

    As such, just like the Garth Brooks song, Friends in Low Places.....I was telling this hooker that she should buy 1 share of Coca Cola, every day, for the next year. Reasonable. Since her income is cash. Then we will examine her options.
     
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    You're hardly poor and underprivileged, A55.

    Meanwhile, you're pole-vaulting through the Samoan community like Wilt Chamberlain so I'd classify you as a person of privilege.
     
  11. roadtonowhere08

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    I suspect you are right for the most part, and I tend to agree. Having said this, I found a great short opinion about this winter from another forum that the market might not be taking into account:

    "...He thought the warming temps in late spring and summer would greatly diminish spread. It certainly dampened spread, but nothing like the flu, since this is a novel coronavirus. The economy was able to reopen to an extent over the summer, without a huge surge for the majority of the country.

    But it's a completely different scenario now. Colder temps clearly allow this virus to spread much more easily, and I fear will also lead to more severe infections overall, as the amount of aerosol particles that survive is much greater. In other words, people will be getting higher doses of the virus when they get infected.

    I don't know if we'll return to the "lockdown" conditions of the spring. But I'm convinced we will have increasingly escalating restrictions, as we're seeing now in Europe. Public officials will have no choice with rapidly mounting pressure on our health care systems, on a much wider scale than we saw with the first wave."


    Also

    "Unlike the Spring, Pandemic fatigue is a major problem now and politicians will be much less willing to go back to those types of restrictions until it may be too late. Europe is definitely having that problem."

    We all know it will get better, life will go on, companies will continue to make good profits, but there is still that unknown in the next 3-5 months that is still in uncharted territory. Remember, this thing really did not take off until pretty much the end of the winter illness season.


    I am seriously hesitant to get into the Biomedical field. I do not know all that much, and it seems to be a political football lately much more so than other fields. I would not know who to bet on unless I really dug into it.

    It's gonna really suck for those with less financial options. I am positive that inflation will come knocking sooner than later.

    I agree. It does not matter who is in office. Someone's getting taxpayer kickbacks and subsidies. "Green" tech and Bio tech is an inevitability. That's why I am keeping my eye on ARKK. I am sure they will be ahead of the curve with all that.
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  12. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Politicians are all the same in that way.

    For any US President, transportation is planned well in advance. Before any President goes anywhere, the route is scouted, planned, and secured. Not just on the ground, but also in the air, on rooftops, etc. No Presidential escort would lead into small streets, narrow alleys, and gridlocked traffic.

    So you have to wonder how much cash was "donated" for a US President to spontaneously detour the motorcade into Chinatown for a photo op.
    Screenshot_20201020-215824_kindlephoto-22499616.png
     
  13. roadtonowhere08

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    Market seems to be trending lower in the last few days. NASDAQ down about 7% since mid October.

    I want to say this is the start of a descent into another correction, but as said before, market manipulation might prevent that. Especially so close to the election.
     

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