Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

Crude Oil (WTI)

Discussion in 'Futures Trading' started by LSS Trading, May 4, 2016.

  1. LSS Trading

    LSS Trading Member

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2016
    Messages:
    61
    Likes Received:
    22
  2. Gambit

    Gambit Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2016
    Messages:
    705
    Likes Received:
    61
    Russia's Lukoil CEO: Ready To Take Part In Oil Output Cuts
     
  3. heyimsnuffles

    heyimsnuffles Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2016
    Messages:
    468
    Likes Received:
    82
    It's going to 63 IMO
     
  4. aaa

    aaa Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2016
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    3
    Brent is marginally higher after EIA report of ~2mnb build, Libya move to boost output,pushed it down 1.5% on Wed.
    CityFALCON
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  5. aaa

    aaa Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2016
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    3
    Crude oil is trading lower in todays session. WTI -0.89%, Brent -0.84%
     
  6. aaa

    aaa Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2016
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    3
    Oil prices are ending the year almost double from the January lows of $28.94/b. There is great optimism about the outlook for oil in 2017, as the proposed output cut of 1.8mbpd by OPEC / non-Opec members, that was agreed upon recently, will finally come into effect from January 1.

    But consider this:
    1) There is a supply threat from Libya and Nigeria (OPEC members who were exempted from the quota),as they ramp up production. With Libya's peak levels being at 1.6mbpd, there is enough room for it to increase output.This could easily upset the supply balance being sought from a cut of 1.8mbpd.
    2) Oil prices above $50/b would be conducive for US shale oil producers. As per Reuters, the number of active rigs have risen by 61% and production has already jumped from 8.5 to 8.8mbpd since May. Higher prices will only accelerate the shale rebound and add to global supply
    3) OPEC deal compliance remains to be seen - past record of non-adherence,member discord and possibility to renege as prices rise, pose additional risk to the downside
    4) USD has been flying at multi year high this year and is expected to stay put or only go north next year supported by Fed, adding further downward pressure to Oil prices.
    5) China, the biggest driver of global oil demand is expected to continue with its slow growth next year. Threat of protectionism induced trade wars could also negatively impact global oil demand.

    While the market optimism is justified, given positive reassurances from the cartel, there are too many moving pieces yet to complete the 2017 oil price picture.

    Read more here: CityFALCON
     
  7. heyimsnuffles

    heyimsnuffles Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2016
    Messages:
    468
    Likes Received:
    82
  8. aaa

    aaa Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2016
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    3
    Oil is trading higher in today's session before Crude Inventories. #WTI +0.92%, #Brent +0.96%... $CL_F
     
  9. aaa

    aaa Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2016
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    3
    US oil rigs rose last week to 566, highest since Nov'15. Oil dips despite planned prodn. cut
     
  10. aaa

    aaa Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2016
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    3
  11. aaa

    aaa Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2016
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    3
  12. aaa

    aaa Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2016
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    3
    We've seen good news for oil market recently:
    1. S&P Global Platts survey this week showed OPEC production cut compliance for January was at 91%, far above its average compliance rate of 60%. Though Iraq was producing over allocation and Iran, Libya and Nigeria were exempt from cuts, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Angola made up for these lapses by making larger cuts than required.
    2. Data from IEA showed that global demand for 2016 was healthy at 1.6mnbpd, driven by better than expected European economic growth, colder weather and high vehicle sales. The 2017 forecast for global oil demand growth was revised up by OPEC to 1.19mnbpd (vs 1.16mnbpd)

    But investors need to keep these factors in mind before being bullish on oil:

    1. US shale oil production could contribute to global supply, capping the gains from production cuts. Baker Hughes reported 8% monthly rise in active rigs in January this year at 683, up 4% higher than January 2016. OPEC might have to continue with the cuts to be able to keep the uptrend in oil prices steady.
    2. Beyond June, OPEC members might be wary of production cut continuation and compliance as they struggle to maintain market share
    3. Countries like Nigeria that have been producing below capacity levels due to the insurgency, could increase supply.Similarly, Iran and Libya, that were exempt from cuts, could also contribute to increasing supply levels and impact oil prices negatively

    Will the oil markets eventually re-balance this year?
     
  13. Caitlin Rogers

    Caitlin Rogers New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2017
    Messages:
    9
    Likes Received:
    2
    It just been the first quarter of the year but the crude oil showed to be weaker and weaker. But I am still observing what will happen on the next quarter of the year. Though it has a good effect with dollar, but not with other countries.
     
  14. Epicram

    Epicram Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2016
    Messages:
    117
    Likes Received:
    10
    Crude oil will touch its all time high point soon according to my analysis on it.
     
  15. Kat

    Kat New Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2018
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    1
    Do you know why prices rose on March 9?
     
  16. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,264
    Likes Received:
    997
    and is now falling
     
  17. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,264
    Likes Received:
    997
    we'll see if this support holds $67.60
    if not, next support is around $67.08

    CL.png
     
  18. IchiFutures

    IchiFutures Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    118
    Likes Received:
    75
    it certainly did hold and ran $5 @OldFart
     
    OldFart likes this.
  19. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,264
    Likes Received:
    997
    sure did....but I'm scalping, not long term trading....us little people have to trade that way...lol
     
  20. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,264
    Likes Received:
    997
    back to daily chart support

    CL.png
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.

Share This Page