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Crude Oil (WTI)

Discussion in 'Futures Trading' started by LSS Trading, May 4, 2016.

  1. IchiFutures

    IchiFutures Active Member

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    would like to go long around 64
     
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  2. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    def a good bounce spot

    all this drop over a comment by Russia that they "may start producing more oil"....
     
  3. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    Oil with a crazy pump this morning....

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    T0rm3nted and IchiFutures like this.
  4. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    And we have this coming out in 45 min's

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports official figures at 10:30 a.m. ET.

    And this on Friday and the weekend ( so Sunday evening might be crazy ):

    Looming large over markets, however, were meetings on June 22-23 in Vienna of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with other big producers, including Russia.
     
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  5. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    Electricity has been clicking on and off since about lunch.
    Missed some opportunities, but scratched out $130 on a quick short an otherwise bad day.
    What really sucks is that I was short at $65.87, then the power went out and I had to go on my phone to exit the trade at $65.78...of course, it just kept falling to $65.41....:mad:
     
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  6. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    1 million barrels extra per Saudi Arabia....not much since we were 5 million short last time around...oil markets going up
     
  7. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    This must be where @IchiFutures was buying up all of the contracts...lol

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    IchiFutures, T0rm3nted and Jrich like this.
  8. IchiFutures

    IchiFutures Active Member

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    bro I said 64 was the buy lol
     
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  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Oil Breaks Out to New 52-Week High

    The price of crude oil is breaking out today as shown in the chart below. At $74.73/barrel, crude is now at its highest level in nearly four years.

    [​IMG]

    While the five-year chart above looks relatively constructive, an even longer term chart going back to 1990 looks more daunting for oil bulls. For the chart below to turn more bullish from a technical perspective, we’d want to see price move above resistance near $110.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    The Crude Reality of Oil’s Bear Market

    Oil has garnered a lot of attention from market watchers in recent weeks after entering a bear market and posting a record 12-day losing streak from October 29 through November 13 that left the commodity 27% off its recent high.

    It has been a frustrating year for energy investors because even when oil was rallying during the spring and summer, stocks failed to benefit noticeably. In fact, energy stocks have been surprisingly disconnected from oil prices for a couple of years now. As shown in LPL Chart of the Day, energy stocks did not get any lift from rising oil prices in mid-2017 through summer of 2018 based on relative performance of the S&P 500 Energy Index versus the S&P 500.

    Some of the primary reasons for the decline include:
    • Slower growth overseas. Recent data out of Europe, Japan and China suggest overseas economic growth has slowed, which has led the International Energy Agency and others to lower global oil demand forecasts.
    • Strong domestic production. U.S. crude oil production is at a record high 11 million barrels per day, up 23% year over year and more than double the levels 10 years ago. U.S. crude oil inventories are elevated relative to their five-year averages.
    • Iran sanctions have been watered down with country exemptions. As a result, the amount of Iranian oil that has come off the global market has been less than some anticipated.
    • Production overseas is increasing. OPEC (mainly Saudi Arabia) and Russia are plugging the entire gap from Iranian production cuts and production declines in Venezuela. The U.A.E., Iraq and Libya are also chipping in.
    • Jawboning from the Oval Office. President Trump is pressuring OPEC producers not to cut, creating bearish headlines.
    • Strong greenback. Finally, a strong U.S. dollar has increased the cost of oil for international buyers in other currencies.
    A long list for sure. “The recent drop in oil prices is especially surprising when considering the industry has significantly cut capital spending in the years following the oil downturn in late 2014-early 2015,” notes LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We could be due for a short-term bounce.”

    So where does oil go from here? Our short-term bias for oil, now in the $57 range, is higher as OPEC is likely to cut production. Many oil-producing nations need higher prices to break even. In addition, oil is oversold enough from a technical perspective that we think it is due for a bounce. At the same time, as prices potentially rise, we believe prospects of additional supply increases from the U.S. and abroad will cap upside much above the mid-$60s, a view we have held throughout 2018.

    The next and perhaps more important question is “will the energy sector outperform?” Our sector view is currently neutral. Though the sector may be due for some outperformance and these stocks may be pricing in a fairly pessimistic fundamental outlook, we see more compelling opportunities within other sectors, specifically industrials, financials and technology, as well as emerging-market equities. These areas are likely to benefit more from the strong U.S. economic growth outlook and a potential trade deal with China. We continue to like master limited partnerships for income-focused investors.

    The best news about oil’s decline? U.S. shoppers will likely save billions of dollars at the pump and heating their homes this winter. The timing is good, just ahead of Black Friday. Remember, those sales get earlier and earlier every year. Happy shopping!

    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Crude Oil Declines Start to Get Real
    Nov 20, 2018

    After trying to stabilize in the last few days, crude oil prices took another leg lower today, falling more than 5% and below $55 per barrel. Relative to its 52-week high on October 3rd (less than two months ago) crude oil prices are now down over 30%. While there have been drawdowns of this magnitude in the past going back to 1991, there haven’t been many, and only five of them went on to see materially larger declines. Concerns regarding excess supply have pressured prices, but the magnitude of the recent declines doesn’t paint much of a positive picture for global growth.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Rude Crude
    Nov 23, 2018

    While US equities are set to trade lower on this holiday-shortened day after Thanksgiving, the big story is the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Crude is trading down over 5% this morning to another 52-week low near $50 per barrel. Looking at the chart, it’s amazing to see how sharp and fast the drop has been from what were multi-year highs just a few short weeks ago. In the span of just 36 trading days, prices have dropped by about a third!

    [​IMG]

    Looking back at crude oil declines over time, the magnitude of this drawdown is right up there with some of the biggest on record. The last time prices were down this much from a 52-week high was in 2015 and 2016, but the key difference between now and then is that the magnitude and length of this decline (at least up until this point) has been shorter and less severe.

    [​IMG]

    We realize that measuring a 36-day rate of change is a bit arbitrary, but just to show how sharp a decline this has been, there haven’t been many other similar lengths of time where crude oil declined more over a such a short period of time.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    OPEC Preview

    Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) meet tomorrow in Vienna, with the focus on how to stabilize oil markets after crude oil fell 22% last month. A cut in production from OPEC and Russia is the most likely scenario. The big question is how large of a cut? President Trump has made it very clear he wants lower oil prices, and a large cut (1.5 million barrels a day) could add to global tensions. Meanwhile, a cut of 1 million barrels a day is the low end of what could be adequate to stabilize a market that has an issue with too much supply. Of course, there always could be no cut, but we do not anticipate that happening.

    We think the cut will come in around 1.3 million (between the high and low ends of potential cuts), and this will help provide clarity on the oil markets.

    For more on our thoughts on OPEC and crude oil, be sure to listen to our latest edition of the LPL Market Signals podcast here. The OPEC and oil discussion starts at the 20:00 mark.

    The OPEC meeting is important, but the bigger question for investors is whether the drop in oil could be signaling a global recession as demand dries up. “We don’t think this is an indication of slower economic growth—this is all about excess supply,” according to LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. Don’t forget, the United States is now the top oil-producing country in the world, producing more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia over the past two months. This is an interesting new dynamic to the oil markets not present in previous decades.

    Technically oil could be trying to form a bottom. In fact, after being down seven consecutive weeks, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) found support at the $50 level.

    As our LPL Chart of the day shows, this is a potentially bullish chart pattern that could mark a near-term low for oil prices.

    [​IMG]
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.

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