def a good bounce spot all this drop over a comment by Russia that they "may start producing more oil"....
And we have this coming out in 45 min's The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports official figures at 10:30 a.m. ET. And this on Friday and the weekend ( so Sunday evening might be crazy ): Looming large over markets, however, were meetings on June 22-23 in Vienna of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with other big producers, including Russia.
Electricity has been clicking on and off since about lunch. Missed some opportunities, but scratched out $130 on a quick short an otherwise bad day. What really sucks is that I was short at $65.87, then the power went out and I had to go on my phone to exit the trade at $65.78...of course, it just kept falling to $65.41....
1 million barrels extra per Saudi Arabia....not much since we were 5 million short last time around...oil markets going up
Oil Breaks Out to New 52-Week High The price of crude oil is breaking out today as shown in the chart below. At $74.73/barrel, crude is now at its highest level in nearly four years. While the five-year chart above looks relatively constructive, an even longer term chart going back to 1990 looks more daunting for oil bulls. For the chart below to turn more bullish from a technical perspective, we’d want to see price move above resistance near $110.
The Crude Reality of Oil’s Bear Market Oil has garnered a lot of attention from market watchers in recent weeks after entering a bear market and posting a record 12-day losing streak from October 29 through November 13 that left the commodity 27% off its recent high. It has been a frustrating year for energy investors because even when oil was rallying during the spring and summer, stocks failed to benefit noticeably. In fact, energy stocks have been surprisingly disconnected from oil prices for a couple of years now. As shown in LPL Chart of the Day, energy stocks did not get any lift from rising oil prices in mid-2017 through summer of 2018 based on relative performance of the S&P 500 Energy Index versus the S&P 500. Some of the primary reasons for the decline include: Slower growth overseas. Recent data out of Europe, Japan and China suggest overseas economic growth has slowed, which has led the International Energy Agency and others to lower global oil demand forecasts. Strong domestic production. U.S. crude oil production is at a record high 11 million barrels per day, up 23% year over year and more than double the levels 10 years ago. U.S. crude oil inventories are elevated relative to their five-year averages. Iran sanctions have been watered down with country exemptions. As a result, the amount of Iranian oil that has come off the global market has been less than some anticipated. Production overseas is increasing. OPEC (mainly Saudi Arabia) and Russia are plugging the entire gap from Iranian production cuts and production declines in Venezuela. The U.A.E., Iraq and Libya are also chipping in. Jawboning from the Oval Office. President Trump is pressuring OPEC producers not to cut, creating bearish headlines. Strong greenback. Finally, a strong U.S. dollar has increased the cost of oil for international buyers in other currencies. A long list for sure. “The recent drop in oil prices is especially surprising when considering the industry has significantly cut capital spending in the years following the oil downturn in late 2014-early 2015,” notes LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We could be due for a short-term bounce.” So where does oil go from here? Our short-term bias for oil, now in the $57 range, is higher as OPEC is likely to cut production. Many oil-producing nations need higher prices to break even. In addition, oil is oversold enough from a technical perspective that we think it is due for a bounce. At the same time, as prices potentially rise, we believe prospects of additional supply increases from the U.S. and abroad will cap upside much above the mid-$60s, a view we have held throughout 2018. The next and perhaps more important question is “will the energy sector outperform?” Our sector view is currently neutral. Though the sector may be due for some outperformance and these stocks may be pricing in a fairly pessimistic fundamental outlook, we see more compelling opportunities within other sectors, specifically industrials, financials and technology, as well as emerging-market equities. These areas are likely to benefit more from the strong U.S. economic growth outlook and a potential trade deal with China. We continue to like master limited partnerships for income-focused investors. The best news about oil’s decline? U.S. shoppers will likely save billions of dollars at the pump and heating their homes this winter. The timing is good, just ahead of Black Friday. Remember, those sales get earlier and earlier every year. Happy shopping!
Crude Oil Declines Start to Get Real Nov 20, 2018 After trying to stabilize in the last few days, crude oil prices took another leg lower today, falling more than 5% and below $55 per barrel. Relative to its 52-week high on October 3rd (less than two months ago) crude oil prices are now down over 30%. While there have been drawdowns of this magnitude in the past going back to 1991, there haven’t been many, and only five of them went on to see materially larger declines. Concerns regarding excess supply have pressured prices, but the magnitude of the recent declines doesn’t paint much of a positive picture for global growth.
Rude Crude Nov 23, 2018 While US equities are set to trade lower on this holiday-shortened day after Thanksgiving, the big story is the sharp drop in crude oil prices. Crude is trading down over 5% this morning to another 52-week low near $50 per barrel. Looking at the chart, it’s amazing to see how sharp and fast the drop has been from what were multi-year highs just a few short weeks ago. In the span of just 36 trading days, prices have dropped by about a third! Looking back at crude oil declines over time, the magnitude of this drawdown is right up there with some of the biggest on record. The last time prices were down this much from a 52-week high was in 2015 and 2016, but the key difference between now and then is that the magnitude and length of this decline (at least up until this point) has been shorter and less severe. We realize that measuring a 36-day rate of change is a bit arbitrary, but just to show how sharp a decline this has been, there haven’t been many other similar lengths of time where crude oil declined more over a such a short period of time.
OPEC Preview Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) meet tomorrow in Vienna, with the focus on how to stabilize oil markets after crude oil fell 22% last month. A cut in production from OPEC and Russia is the most likely scenario. The big question is how large of a cut? President Trump has made it very clear he wants lower oil prices, and a large cut (1.5 million barrels a day) could add to global tensions. Meanwhile, a cut of 1 million barrels a day is the low end of what could be adequate to stabilize a market that has an issue with too much supply. Of course, there always could be no cut, but we do not anticipate that happening. We think the cut will come in around 1.3 million (between the high and low ends of potential cuts), and this will help provide clarity on the oil markets. For more on our thoughts on OPEC and crude oil, be sure to listen to our latest edition of the LPL Market Signals podcast here. The OPEC and oil discussion starts at the 20:00 mark. The OPEC meeting is important, but the bigger question for investors is whether the drop in oil could be signaling a global recession as demand dries up. “We don’t think this is an indication of slower economic growth—this is all about excess supply,” according to LPL Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. Don’t forget, the United States is now the top oil-producing country in the world, producing more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia over the past two months. This is an interesting new dynamic to the oil markets not present in previous decades. Technically oil could be trying to form a bottom. In fact, after being down seven consecutive weeks, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) found support at the $50 level. As our LPL Chart of the day shows, this is a potentially bullish chart pattern that could mark a near-term low for oil prices.
The US Secretary of Energy said that Saudi Arabia is ready to cut oil production significantly more than what the OPEC Plus agreement requires. Donald Trump also supported the oil quotes, saying he was ready to extend the period of negotiations to reach a trade agreement with China. Oil should be bought now.
Oil has really risen in price. My last post was on Friday. The picture is a weekly chart. The last bar is the movement this week.
@Kat that was my first attempt at trading a pattern using ichimoku 10 years ago. I called it the bucket. ks below ts and price > ts and < ks. I didn't have success however it brought back some memories seeing that chart.
Seasonal Crude Oil Rally Up 80.0% of the Time Mid-February to Mid-May Crude oil has a tendency to bottom in mid-February and then rally through July with the bulk of the seasonal move ending in late April or early May. It is that early February low that can give traders an edge by buying ahead of a seasonally strong period. Going long crude oil’s July contract on or about February 14 and holding for approximately 60 days has been a profitable trade 28 times in 35 years, for an 80.0% win ratio with a cumulative profit of $113,280 (based upon trading a single crude oil futures contract excluding commissions and taxes). Crude oil’s seasonal tendency to move higher in this time period is partly due to continuing demand for heating oil and diesel fuel in the northern states and partly due to the shutdown of refinery operations in order to switch production facilities from producing heating oil to reformulated unleaded gasoline in anticipation of heavy demand for the upcoming summer driving season. This has refiners buying crude oil in order to ramp up production for gasoline. Crude has been ripping higher with stocks since Christmas, but there is plenty of time left in this seasonality and the recent consolidation in oil prices may provide another entry point.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday called on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to encourage oil production to reduce commodity prices. "It is very important that OPEC increase the flow of oil. The world market is fragile, the price of oil is too high. Thank you!" Trump wrote in a post on Twitter. Immediately after Trump's tweet, US crude oil futures fell more than $ 1 to $ 58.33 per barrel. Crude oil prices have risen this year amid a reduction in supply by OPEC and U.S. sanctions. against OPEC member countries, Venezuela and Iran. The decline in production has caused tightening of oil inventories. But analysts have warned that oil prices will be higher than current levels if not for a slowing economy which is expected to soon begin to reduce fuel consumption
Big Days Happen in.... Mon, Sep 16, 2019 Crude oil rocketed higher today as WTI rallied just under 14% versus Friday's close in what was the largest one-day gain since 2/19/09. There's an old saying on Wall Street that big days happen in bear markets, and in the equity market that has tended to be the case as some of the largest percentage gains in stock market history were all during major bear markets. Looking at the largest one-day moves in crude oil shows a similar story as well. The table below shows every one day gain of 10%+ in WTI going back to 1983, and for each day we have also shown how far crude oil was trading from its 52-week high after the one day gain of 10%+. In the case of today's gain, WTI prices are still more than 18% below their 52-week high, and while that may sound like a lot, there have only been three other days of the 26 prior ones shown where crude oil rallied more than 10% and finished the day closer to a 52-week high than it did today (gray shaded dates). In fact, of all the days listed below, the average spread between WTI's closing price on the day of the big gain and its 52-week high was over 46%! Talk about being in the hole!
Another Iran-Related Conflict Kills a Crude Oil Rally Tue, Jan 7, 2020 It may sound completely illogical now, but another Middle-East conflict involving Iran looks like it's going to stop a crude oil rally in its tracks. After last Friday's drone strike in Iraq that killed Iranian General Soleimani, crude oil prices originally surged 6% rising from $61.18 up to $64.72. Since that peak, though, prices have given up 60% of their gains and are now up just 2.4% since last Thursday's close. While prices are still higher relative to where they were last Thursday, the current pattern is beginning to look a lot like the pattern we saw following other Iran-related issues in the Middle East over the last year. Back in April 2019, crude oil capped off a 30% rally with a gain of 2.5% after the US announced it would end any waivers to countries importing Iranian oil. Cutting off Iranian oil from the market would cut supply which should have led to higher prices, but after that short-term move higher, prices reversed lower falling more than 20% in less than two months. In September, crude oil prices saw an even larger one-day move of nearly 15% after Saudi oil fields were attacked by what was widely believed to be Iranian drones. The rally from that attack lasted all but a day and within two weeks all of the gains (and more) were erased. The latest surge in crude oil prices also followed what was a steady uptrend (like the one in April), and like that rally, will Friday's rally end up marking another blow-off top?
