I would like to dig into a Canadian oil company called Cenovus energy, hear me out before bashing. I'm all for green energy but we're here to make money and I'm sharing my thoughts, looking for input as well. Cenovus announced the acquisition of Husky Energy in late October 2020, to create the third largest Canadian oil and natural gas producer. The transaction should be highly accretive and lead to substantial synergies, increased scale, more stable cash generation and reduced group leverage. Higher oil prices will allow Cenovus to reach its debt reduction target of $10-billion by year-end, removing the need to sell assets, but Mr. Pourbaix (CEO) said the company is continuing to sort its operations into core and non-core buckets. Standout points *Once debt metrics reach the target (lower than $8 billion long term), all excess FCF will be deployed toward share buybacks and coordination with COP will be discussed. * Breakeven at $36US WTI * Annual synergies $1.2billion * Cenovus will now have the biggest refining capacity in Canada, second biggest upgrader. * Oil production will be almost on par with Suncor. Going from around 450,000 BOE/d to over 750,000 BOE/d * Source: http://imgur.com/a/05ypaVc * Cenovus is looking at $4billion USD in free funds flow. Source: http://imgur.com/a/uvY108p * Cenovus has mentioned share buybacks and dividend increase. *Owners of $100 WTI options—now the most widely owned WTI call contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange—are making a leveraged bet that oil prices will hurtle higher after already surging more than 40% this year. Analysts Goldman Sachs sees the oil price pullback as a buying opportunity and forecasts Brent crude reaching $80 per barrel this summer even as the recent rally in prices “takes a big breather.” Source:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-research-goldman-idUSKBN2BB0D5 HFI Research Targets https://i.imgur.com/DTJbCWi.png CIBC: Cenovus price target $16 Desjardins: Cenovus price target $14 JPMorgan:https://seekingalpha.com/news/3704296-cenovus-rallies-as-jp-morgan-upgrades-praising-husky-deal Eric Nuttall "Ridiculously miss priced. Core focus is deleveraging the balance sheet. Looking strongly at monetizing non-core assets from the Husky acquisition. The stock is trading at 3.5x cashflow at current prices with 35% free cashflow yield. Using a 6x multiple, it can be a double. " https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/CVE/price-target/ **No insiders have sold, only buying. ** https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/TSE/CVE/insider-trades/ MENAP OIL break even prices https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=60214246 Saudi Arabia A finance ministry spokesman said the kingdom and OPEC+ have immediate and longer term views on maintaining stable oil prices "for the benefit of all concerned", and will continue to respond to global events and supply and demand issues in line with this objective. Ratings agency Fitch expects a fiscal deficit of about $40 billion this year, assuming an average oil price of $59 a barrel, average oil production of 8.7 million barrels a day, and total spending of 1 trillion riyals. The government would need prices of $76 per barrel to have a balanced budget this year, but under the current dividend policy, and as production recovers, the breakeven price could come down to around $60 a barrel, said Krisjanis Krustins, director in Fitch's sovereign team. Russia Putin a few years ago said a price of $60-$65 a barrel suited Moscow. Recently Russia would support broadly stable oil output by OPEC+ group of leading global oil producers in May. "Russia Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s call for a halt to global oil and gas developments could push oil prices to $200 a barrel." Nigeria "Crude oil prices could rise to $200 per barrel as international oil companies curb their investments in new exploration and production, the Nigerian National Oil Corporation said this week." Climate * We’re piloting methanol fuel cells at our conventional oil and gas operations to identify an efficient and reliable energy source to supplement solar power. But what is a methanol fuel cell? * A fuel cell works like a battery as an energy conversion device that turns hydrocarbons like methanol into electricity,” explains Ray Lambert, Emissions Management Engineer, Environmental Solutions & Systems at Cenovus Energy. “And the methanol fuel cells are being trialed as backup power for devices at several of our sites.” Source: https://www.cenovus.com/news/our-st...l-cells-can-help-us-reduce-our-emissions.html * Cenovus's long-term ambition is to reach net zero emissions by 2050. This will require ongoing focus on technology solutions beyond those that are commercial and economic today. We continue to identify opportunities to participate in longer-term solutions to address emissions from our operations and beyond. This includes extensive collaboration efforts with our peers, academics, other industries and entrepreneurs from around the world. * Between 2004 and 2019, Cenovus reduced the CO2 emissions intensity of its oil sands operations by about 30 percent. * NOx emissions at our Christina Lake oil sands facility are about 50 percent below the regulatory threshold of 400 tonnes per year. Looking for anything I've missed, share your thoughts. https://www.cenovus.com/news/news-r...roducers-announce-unprecedented-alliance.html Some more random bullish Cenovus articles https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433764-cenovus-energy-big-quarter-hidden-by-the-husky-merger https://seekingalpha.com/article/44...ill-allow-it-to-buy-back-conocophillips-stake https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/video/eric-nuttall-discusses-cenovus-energy~1858774
