Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Thursday to you all! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Thursday, July the 14th, 2022.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Thursday, July the 14th, 2022! LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/vyuqew/714_thursdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Morning Lineup - 7/14/22 - Streaky Thu, Jul 14, 2022 The market has taken on a bit of a streaky vibe in the last few weeks. After four straight down days to close out June where the S&P 500 fell 3.2%, the month of July started out with a four-day win streak where the S&P 500 rallied 3.1%. Since those four days ending last Thursday, the S&P 500 has been down four straight days falling 2.6%. The current four-day losing streak looks like it's going to extend to five days as futures are indicated another 1.35% lower. Besides the litany of issues facing the market all year, the catalyst for this morning's weakness is weak results from Conagra (CAG), JP Morgan (JPM), and Morgan Stanley (MS). CAG is down 2.5% after reporting weaker than expected EPS and lowered guidance, MS is only down fractionally, and JPM is poised to open more than 3% lower putting it on pace to fall in reaction to earnings for the eighth straight quarter. The commentary from the earnings release for JPM wasn't particularly uplifting: "The U.S. economy continues to grow and both the job market and consumer spending, and their ability to spend, remain healthy. But geopolitical tension, high inflation, waning consumer confidence, the uncertainty about how high rates have to go and the never-before-seen quantitative tightening and their effects on global liquidity, combined with the war in Ukraine and its harmful effect on global energy and food prices are very likely to have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road. We are prepared for whatever happens and will continue to serve clients even in the toughest of times.” In economic news, PPI came in higher than expected on both a headline and core basis, while initial jobless claims ticked up to 244K which was the highest level since last November. The rise in jobless claims hasn't been particularly steep, but it has been consistent ever since, bottoming out in Mid-March. It's not just stock prices that have been on the decline this week. Crude oil prices have fallen sharply and WTI briefly traded below its 200-DMA this morning as it trades down near $93. As shown in the chart, while prices did run up in anticipation of the event, all of the increases in crude oil prices since Russia invaded Ukraine have now been erased. The fact that oil prices are back to levels they were trading at right before Russia invaded Ukraine has been taken as a win by investors, and we wish we could say the same thing about the S&P 500. Unlike crude oil, which has managed to return back to pre-invasion levels, stock prices have kept falling.
Yeah I think it is peak inflation too although inflation probably will stay high for awhile, will be interesting to see how high the FED will go on the interest rates in the coming months
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Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Friday to you all! And welcome to the final trading day of the week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Friday, July the 15th, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 7/15/22 - Crisis of Confidence 43 Years Later Fri, Jul 15, 2022 43 years ago today, President Carter addressed the nation in what has become the now famous crisis of confidence speech. Today, we find ourselves in a very similar situation with rampant inflation and sentiment among Americans at multi-decade lows. Reading through Carter’s speech today, you would have thought he was talking about the present-day United States. Unfortunately, from an economic perspective, Carter’s speech was followed by two separate recessions (the double-dip) in the next four years. The first started five months later in January 1980 and lasted just six months. The expansion that followed lasted only a year, and in January 1981 a second contraction began lasting 16 months in what at the time was tied for the longest recession since the Great Depression. On a more positive note, there have only been 35 trading days where the S&P 500 closed at a lower level than where it was at the time of Carter's speech, and the maximum downside was 4%. This morning, futures are indicated higher in what bulls hope will end a five-day losing streak for the S&P 500, but first, we'll have to get through the July Empire Manufacturing report, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories, and Michigan Confidence. In other words, look out for landmines. Speaking of confidence, the Michigan Confidence index is at lower levels now than it was when Carter gave his 'malaise' speech and for that matter, at any time since the survey started in the late 1970s. As we all remember, in the preliminary release of that report last month, inflation expectations ticked higher leading to a more aggressive rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Ultimately, that uptick in inflation expectations was revised away, so that will be the key aspect to watch of that report today. Carter's 'Crisis of Confidence' speech focused a lot on high energy prices and his proposals to help reduce the US dependence on foreign oil. Ironically, today President Biden is in the Middle East asking Saudi Arabia to pump out more oil into the global market. Thankfully for Americans, we've already started to see relief as oil prices are well off their highs from earlier in the year and below $100 per barrel. That has negatively impacted the Energy sector where prices have cratered in recent weeks. Just yesterday, the sector fell another 1.9% taking its peak to trough decline (on a closing basis) down to 26.3% which is actually five percentage points more than the S&P 500 is down from its peak! In the process of yesterday’s decline, the Energy sector also closed below its 200-DMA for the first time in over 200 trading days (September 2021). While it has been nearly ten months since the Energy sector last traded below its 200-DMA, the streak that just ended wasn’t particularly extreme relative to history. As recently as early 2017, there was a slightly longer streak, and back in August of last year, there was a streak that lasted 185 trading days. The most extreme streaks for the sector occurred back in the late 1990s and early 2000s when there were two separate periods that stretched roughly three years each! Following its 25% haircut, the Energy sector may have broken support at its 200-DMA yesterday, but it is also right around two other potentially important levels. As shown in the chart below, yesterday’s close coincided with the high from 2019 and is now only modestly above its uptrend line from late 2020 which began when the sector made a higher low following the COVID crash.
Resistance at /ES 3850-3860. This week has been very underwhelming, if we can't make it over the resistance then looks like we'll be going back to that 3700 SPX level sooner rather than later.
Entering fun part of the earnings season and it would be especially interesting to see the big techs reporting in about 2 weeks
Gooooooooood Friday evening and a happy start to the weekend to all! The market week ahead thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read over this coming weekend: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/w022nt/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ Next week's most anticipated earnings calendar from EW has yet to be published. Check back in here sometime over this weekend as I'll be adding the earnings calendar as a new post here once it is officially out (typically on Saturday morning). In the meantime, here are the highest vol earnings releases for next week. Have yourself an absolutely splendid weekend and here's to a crazy awesome trading in the new week ahead. Get that moola y'all's! Will catch up with y'all's same bat time, same bat channel bright and early in the AM on Monday. Cheers!
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday to you all! And welcome to the new trading week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Monday, July the 18th, 2022.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Monday, July the 18th, 2022! LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/w1yqjo/718_mondays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Morning Lineup - 7/18/22 - An Up Monday For A Change Mon, Jul 18, 2022 What was looking like a very strong start to the week a couple of hours ago is now looking more like merely a positive start to the week as S&P 500 futures went from up well over 1% to up about 75 basis points (bps). Given the market's tendency to kick off the week on a down note this year, though, and positive start to the week is a win. Consider this, including today, of the 29 weeks so far in 2022, the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) has only opened higher on the first trading day of the week ten times. Economic data is light today with Homebuilder Sentiment the only report on the calendar. The pace of earnings will pick up as the week goes on, but already we've already had reports from Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS). Neither company had any major landmines, and while BAC is flat in the pre-market, GS is up over 3%. Last Friday’s rally helped to end what was a lousy week up until that point on a positive note. Heading into the day, the S&P 500 was down for five straight days, and even after the rally, finished the week down nearly 1%. But with a strong finish and futures trading where they are right now, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are poised to erase just about all of last week’s losses at the opening bell. There’s been an awful lot of bottom talk circulating over the last few days, and the charts of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY) have been showing some positive signals as they both managed to make higher lows last week. There’s still a lot of resistance to work through on the upside, though, as the 50-day moving averages and prior highs from this summer loom above. Given the market’s tendency to disappoint bulls in prior rallies this year, traders are increasingly less likely to give the market the benefit of the doubt and give an all-clear.
think ima start posting up the daily anticipated EW calendars in here everyday until ER season starts winding down. Tickers with an ER either after today's market close or before tomorrow's open: ($JNJ $HAL $IBM $LMT $ALY $SI $HAS $CFG $SBNY $NVS $TFC $MRTN $MAN $CATC $MBWM $FBK $SFBS $ELS $CFB) EW Calendar:
