Walmart stock sinks after warning of inflation's effects on earnings - MarketWatch Well futures could be off to a soft start this evening
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Tuesday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Tuesday, July the 26th, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 7/26/22 - Walmart (WMT) Comes Out of Left Field Tue, Jul 26, 2022 We said it was going to be a busy week yesterday, and that didn't even include the surprise earnings warning from Walmart (WMT) after the close. While WMT shares are down sharply, it's surprisingly having little impact on the broader markets where futures are only modestly lower heading into the open. Where they finish the day will be another story, and then after the close, we'll hear from Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) which are likely to have a bigger impact on how markets trade tomorrow. Outside of equities, longer-term Treasuries are rallying this morning and sending the 10-year yield down to 2.74% and flattening the 10y3m portion of the yield curve down to just 26 basis points (bps) and closer to inverted levels, but don't worry "it's different this time". As mentioned above, WMT's warning was somewhat out of left field, and the timing was interesting as it came right before this week's Fed meeting. It will be interesting to see what, if any, impact the WMT news has on the thoughts of FOMC members. First, it was Target (TGT) in May, but yesterday it was WMT's turn to issue a rare earnings warning outside of its regularly scheduled quarterly earnings report. As noted in last night’s Closer, the company noted that “increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, and while we’ve made good progress clearing hardline categories, apparel in Walmart U.S. is requiring more markdown dollars”. In response to the warning, shares of the retailer plunged close to 10%, and if those levels hold into the opening bell, it will be the stock’s largest downside gap since the 1987 Crash. Including today’s decline at the open, today will be WMT’s second downside gap to make the top ten (since 1985) this year. The only other year with two entries on the list is 2020 in the middle of the COVID crash. There weren’t even two declines of similar levels during the Financial Crisis! Looking at the chart below, it’s amazing to see how strong WMT was in the late 1980s and 1990s only to stall out, relatively speaking, at the turn of the century. Including dividends, WMT stock has had an annualized return of 4.32% from 12/31/99 through the opening bell today compared to the S&P 500’s gain of 6.5% over that same period. While the largest downside gap since the 1987 crash may seem a bit excessive, keep in mind that as of yesterday’s close (before the warning was released), WMT was only down about 8% YTD and trading at a premium to the S&P 500 as investors viewed it as a port in the storm. At the opening bell today, WMT will be down less than 18% YTD, which is only slightly weaker than the S&P 500, with a valuation much closer to inline with the broader market. In bear markets, there are no ports.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Tuesday, July the 26th, 2022! LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/w8irqr/726_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Here are the most notable earnings releases due out after today's market close. NOTABLE TICKERS WITH ER AFTER TODAY'S CLOSE: ($GOOGL $MSFT $V $ENPH $CMG $TXN $SKX $MDLZ $BYD $AMP $MTDR $JNPR $CNI $WH $TER $SYK $ZION $FE $CB $AGYS $HA $NEX $AXTA $ILPT $PEB $AGR $NAVI $AXS $ROIUC $CSGP $ASH $BXP $EQR $ESS $TNET $NXGN $LBC $ARI $CHX $RUSHA $ABCB $HAFC) EW CALENDAR:
Here are the most notable earnings releases due out before Wednesday's market open. NOTABLE TICKERS WITH ER BEFORE TOMORROW'S OPEN: ($SHOP $BA $SPOT $WM $TMUS $BMY $HLT $TECK $SHW $KHC $HUM $CCJ $HES $GD $CME $OTIS $TEVA $BSX $BG $GRMN $ADP $CHEF $R $UMC $AEP $ODFL $LW $AVY $GPC $IVZ $IEX $CPG $APH $RCI $NYCB $TMHC $NSC $PAG $ICL $SAIA $TDY $SHOO) EW CALENDAR:
I'll be watching ENPH this afternoon. GOOGL, MSFT have been beaten down coming into the report, so a bounce could just be reactionary.
ENPH seems to be doing pretty well after the bell Mixed reactions for tech earnings so far, GOOGL up and MSFT down.
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Hump Day to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Wednesday, July the 27th, 2022.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Wednesday, July the 27th, 2022! LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/w9dk18/727_wednesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Morning Lineup - 7/27/22 - If Only Every Day Was a Rate Hike Day Wed, Jul 27, 2022 We're nearly halfway through what has been billed as the most critical week of earnings season, and based on where futures currently reside, equities are down just marginally on the week. Don't rest yet, though. Between today's FOMC meeting, tomorrow's GDP report, and some critical earnings reports on Friday, we still have a number of potential bumps on the horizon. Economic data released so far today has been better than expectations, and the only report left on the calendar is Pending Home Sales at 10 AM. One of the primary reasons stocks have put up miserable performance numbers this year stems from the tighter monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. For that reason, we found it ironic that on all three days the FOMC has hiked rates this year, stocks rallied. On 3/16, the Fed kicked off the current rate hike cycle with a 25 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate, and in response, the S&P 500 rallied 2.2%. Seven weeks later, the size of the rate hike doubled, but stocks still rallied with the S&P 500 surging just under 3% in what turned out to be the second-best day of the year. Six weeks later on 6/15, in response to the mirage of surging inflation expectations in the Michigan sentiment report, the Fed dropped a 75 bps hike on the market and yet stocks still managed to rally with the S&P 500 rising 1.5%. In other words, the S&P 500 is down 17.7% this year, but if you had only invested in the market on days when the FOMC hiked rates, you would be looking at a YTD gain of 6.8% in just three days. Conversely, if you had avoided the market on those three days and been long the rest of the year, you’d be down 23% YTD. Nobody ever said the market had to make sense.
Here are the most notable earnings releases due out after today's market close. NOTABLE TICKERS WITH ER AFTER TODAY'S CLOSE: ($META $F $QCOM $TDOC $ETSY $NOW $LRCX $HOLX $QS $EQT $AR $ALGN $ORLY $UPWK $NLY $LC $URI $CAKE $CCS $HP $AEM $AMED $MOH $CHRW $RJF $SB $SNBR $AWK $CHDN $MUSA $EQIX $ASPN $PPC $CSL $MTH $CHE $KGC $CG $NOV $CYH $INVH $COUR $NTGR) EW CALENDAR:
The market is rallying hard here Not sure if Powell has said anything dovish but the market seems to be loving it right now
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Thursday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 4 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Thursday, July the 28th, 2022.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Thursday, July the 28th, 2022! LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/wa8fmd/728_thursdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Morning Lineup - 7/28/22 - Three Down, Two to Go Thu, Jul 28, 2022 After Fed Chair Powell downplayed the significance of the initial read on quarterly GDP reports and then today's negative print for Q2 GDP, conspiracy theorists will say yesterday's comments were made so the Fed could downplay today's negative print. Whatever. We now have seen two straight quarters of negative GDP, and while that may not meet the 'official' definition of a recession, it still doesn't change the fact that the US economy shrank in the first half. Add to that, initial jobless claims remain right near their post-COVID highs. This morning's print of 256K was above last week's print of 250K, but last week's reading was subsequently revised up to 261K meaning that claims actually fell this week. Futures have actually rallied a bit since the 8:30 print of GDP and Jobless Claims, but they are still indicating a modestly lower market at the open. The Q2 GDP report was an important report, but who wasn't expecting a weak print? More important than that report will be earnings reports from Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) after the bell today. Even in the current volatile environment, a 4% rally in the Nasdaq is a big move. In the index's entire history dating back to 1971, there have only been 86 prior occurrences, and yesterday's rally was the largest one-day gain since early April 2020 just after the COVID crash lows. The chart below shows every 4% rally in the Nasdaq over its history since 1971, and outside of the period from 2000 to 2002, and to a lesser degree the Financial Crisis, moves of this magnitude were sporadic. The most notable aspect of the chart below, however, has to be the fact that in the 50+ year history of the Nasdaq, nearly half of all the index's rallies of 4%+ occurred in the three-year window from 2000 to 2002. Given the near majority of all 4%+ rallies in the Nasdaq occurred during the most severe bear market in its history, maybe big moves like yesterday aren't such a good thing in terms of the Nasdaq's future direction. In the chart below, we show the index's forward returns following prior 4%+ rallies as well as 4%+ rallies, like yesterday, that were the first occurrences in at least three months. As shown in the chart, median returns following all 4%+ rallies (light blue bars) are mixed relative to overall average returns since 1971, but when the 4%+ rally is the first in at least three months, forward returns have actually tended to be above the historical average for all periods since 1971. It's hard to say the coast is now clear following yesterday's big rally, but historically speaking, big one-day rallies for the Nasdaq after a long absence have historically been followed by above-average returns.
Here are the most notable earnings releases due out after today's market close. NOTABLE TICKERS WITH ER AFTER TODAY'S CLOSE: ($AAPL $AMZN $ROKU $INTC $X $VALE $KLAC $FSLR $DXCM $EW $ZEN $DECK $VFC $CE $DLR $AUY $OLN $CLR $LHX $CC $FIVN $HTGC $MHK $SGEN $IMAX $AJG $UCTT $AVTR $EMN $INT $HLI $CLFD $CVRX $RGP $TWOU $BZH $VRSN $TFII $HIG $SKYW $TXRH) EW CALENDAR:
Here are the most notable earnings releases due out before Friday's market open. NOTABLE TICKERS WITH ER BEFORE TOMORROW'S OPEN: ($XOM $CVX $PG $ABBV $CL $PSX $AZN $WY $IMO $ENB $ABR $CHTR $ARCB $BLMN $LYB $CBOE $BAH $MGA $TAL $CHD $WPC $GWW $AON $GHM $SLCA $NMRK $FHB $NVT $GTLS $CNHI $B $CPLP $AB $IMGN $BCPC $IRMD $ES $PIPR $ABTX $NWL $ACRE $SAMG $DCOM) EW CALENDAR:
