Daily Discussion - Main Discussion thread

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by T0rm3nted, Feb 8, 2021.

  1. AJAskey

    AJAskey Member

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    Nancy Lives SPY Trade

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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Thursday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours from the cash market open.

    GLTA on this Thursday, August the 4th, 2022. :cool2::thumbsup:

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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    Morning Lineup - 8/4/22 - Fading into the Open
    Thu, Aug 4, 2022

    Futures were higher earlier but have given up much of their gains as we head into the open. Initial Jobless Claims were just released and came in at 260K which is just 1K shy of a post-COVID high. Continuing Jobless Claims saw a larger increase hitting the highest levels since April. In the UK, the BoE raised rates by 50 bps which was the largest hike since 1995. What's ironic about the move is that at the same time the central bank raised rates by the most in more than 25 years, it also warned of a long recession.

    Yesterday was the 58th time in 2022 that the Nasdaq experienced a one-day rally or decline of 2% or more, and it is only August 4th! To put that in perspective, we’re just under 150 trading days into the year, so at the current pace, we’re seeing an average of about two 2%+ daily moves per week! How does that stack up relative to history? Going back to 1971, even if there aren’t any more 2% moves for the rest of the year, 2022 would rank as the 6th highest number of 2% days in a calendar year in the Nasdaq’s history. That’s just four less than the total for 1999, 25 behind the total for 2008, but well more than 40 below the triple-digit totals seen in 2000, 2001, and 2002. The record for the greatest number of 2% days in a calendar year came in 2000 when the 2% threshold was crossed 134 times or more than once every other day.

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    2022 already ranks as the sixth highest number of 2% days in a calendar year in the Nasdaq’s history, but when we compare the number of 2% days this year through the end of July to the first seven months of all other years, it ranks as the third most. As shown in the chart below, the only two years that had more 2% daily moves YTD through 7/31 than 2022 (57) were 2000 (84) and 2001 (74). Other years that were close were 2002 (54) and 2009 (51).

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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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  7. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah the Q2 earnings haven't impressed the market for sure for cybersecurity :eek:
     
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  8. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    NET surging after earnings :eek2:
     
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  9. AJAskey

    AJAskey Member

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    QT - Taking the patient off the meds...

    From Reuters:

    This time's onset of QT is also a bit earlier relative to where the Fed is in its overall tightening process. Along with announcing that QT will start on June 1, the Fed on Wednesday lifted its target rate to 0.75-1.00%. Last time, QT did not begin until rates had reached 1.00-1.25%.

    Come September, the Fed will be cutting $95 billion a month from its holdings, split between $60 billion of Treasuries and $35 billion of MBS.


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    #2889 AJAskey, Aug 4, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2022
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Friday to all of you! And welcome to the final trading day of the week and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 3 hours from the cash market open.

    GLTA on this Friday, August the 5th, 2022. :cool2::thumbsup:

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  11. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    FOMO taking a hit this morning.

    Is this the monkeypox market?
     
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    Morning Lineup - 8/5/22 - Big Jobs
    Fri, Aug 5, 2022

    It's another jobs day. Inflation has become the biggest issue facing the markets lately, so jobs reports aren't quite as important as they once were, but today's report will still have implications concerning FOMC policy. Headline jobs came in much better than expected, the Unemployment Rate was lower than expected, average hourly earnings were better than expected, and average weekly hours came in higher than expected. More jobs, longer hours, and more pay. The immediate response in the market was for futures to pull back sharply and interest rates to spike higher.

    It may sound hard to believe given the year it has been for stocks, but this week the S&P 500 closed further above its 50-day moving average (DMA) than at any other point since April 2021! The chart below shows the spread (in percentage terms) between the S&P 500's price and the 50-day moving average over the last two years. After spending a number of months below the 50-DMA, the S&P 500 crossed above it in late July and made a bee-line for the 5% threshold this week. Between now and April 2021, there were two other periods where the spread approached 5%. The first was in November 2021 when the S&P 500 came up just short of 5%, and then back in late March when the spread briefly topped 5%. Back in the November period, the S&P 500 actually went on to make new highs even as the internals of the market were already deteriorating. Back in late March, though, right when the spread topped 5%, the rally ran out of gas.

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  13. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Energy sector is green today. USO testing the 200 sma again.

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    #2893 anotherdevilsadvocate, Aug 5, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2022
  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Good news for the economy is somewhat a bad news for the market now it looks like :eek: We aren't gonna get a pivot from the FED anytime soon unless the CPI comes in much colder than expected next week :eek:
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    Gooooooooood Friday evening and a happy start to the weekend to all! :banana:

    The market week ahead thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read over this coming weekend:

    LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/wh9u8a/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/

    Next week's most anticipated earnings calendar from EW has been posted. Here are also EW's highest vol earnings releases for next week and Monday's pre-market notables.

    Have yourself an absolutely splendid weekend ahead and here's to a crazy awesome trading in the new week. Get that moola y'all's!

    Will catch up with y'all's same bat time, same bat channel bright and early in the AM on Monday. Cheers! :cool2:

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    #2895 bigbear0083, Aug 5, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2022
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  16. AJAskey

    AJAskey Member

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    Industries sorted by Technical Strength

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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading week and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the cash market open.

    GLTA on this Monday, August the 8th, 2022. :cool2::thumbsup:

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  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

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    Morning Lineup - 8/8/22 - You Don't Have Nixon to Kick Around Anymore
    Mon, Aug 8, 2022

    People always need a scapegoat, and in the Summer of 1974 with the economy stuck in a deep recession and inflation surging, the buck stopped at Richard Nixon. Mired in the Watergate scandal and with impeachment proceedings underway, Nixon announced his intention to resign from office the following day. Nixon's resignation didn't staunch the bleeding, and over the following two months, the S&P 500 declined another 20% before finally bottoming in early October. By the following February, though, stocks were already back at pre-resignation levels, and they didn't look back from there. While stocks bottomed, the rest of the 1970s wasn't a particularly good period for the economy or markets though. There are plenty of similarities between now and the early 1970s, but the differences are probably even greater, and the market backdrop isn't nearly as bad now as it was 48 years ago today.

    The S&P 500 managed positive returns last week making it the third straight week of gains. That may not sound all that impressive at first, but when you consider that there were only three up weeks in the entire second quarter, it sounds like a much bigger deal. Last week’s rally was on the small side as the S&P 500 rose less than 0.5%, but six sectors managed to post gains.

    Leading the way higher were Technology and Communication Services, which each rallied more than 1%, followed by Consumer Discretionary which came up just shy of the 1% mark. On the downside, three sectors also declined more than 1%, but the big loser was Energy. With a decline of 6.81% last week, XLE dropped below its 50-DMA and is the only sector heading into this week below that level. Energy may be the biggest loser recently, but it still tops the leaderboard on a YTD basis by a wide margin (+34.31%) and is one of just two sectors, along with Utilities (+5.22%), that is in the black YTD.

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  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Market is finally turning down. We pushed up about as far as we technically could.
    See if this down move can get some momentum.
     
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