Hey, I want to give a shout out to bigbear0083 for doing these and the early morning line ups/premarket posts. It's nice to have it here when you come onto the forum to read/post during the day. A one stop shop. Thanks for all you do.
oh wow! thx bigly time for this @Smokie means a lot to me to hear it tbh. you da man. and you as well @stock1234! really appreciate this tons!
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Thursday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Thursday, August the 11th, 2022.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading on this Thursday, August the 11th, 2022! LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/wlqinv/811_thursdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
Morning Lineup - 8/11/22 - Inflation Encore Thu, Aug 11, 2022 Politicians are always getting themselves into trouble with hot mics, and with US Presidents, it has happened more than once with respect to Russia. Besides the Reagan comment above, remember ten years ago when President Obama was caught telling Russian President Medvedev that he would have more 'flexibility' after the election? Outside of Russia, President GW Bush was once caught on audio at a rally telling VP Cheney that a certain New York Times reporter was a "major league ___-hole"? And then there's President Biden. Who can forget the ceremony for the signing of the Affordable Care Act into law when Biden as VP grabbed the President and told him that "This is a big f___-ing deal!" Politicians live their lives under the camera, so it's only natural that they get caught making these embarrassing comments from time to time, but in a society where everything is recorded, a parent's advice that you should never say or do anything that you would be embarrassed for your parents to see or hear is more fitting than ever. In markets today, futures suggest that yesterday's rally will have additional legs, but PPI and Initial Jobless Claims will have a say over whether these gains can continue throughout the trading day. PPI was much weaker than expected at both the headline and core level and jobless claims were right about in line with expectations. Treasury yields are lower at the long end of the curve, bitcoin is higher and crude oil prices are back above $90 even as OPEC says it sees the market moving into a surplus at some point this quarter. Usually, when the market rallies, the VIX declines, and after yesterday's rally, the VIX closed below 20 for the first time since April 4th after a run into the low 30s during the worst of the market declines earlier this year. One notable aspect of the sell-off during the first half of 2022 was the fact that the VIX didn't reach extremely high levels that have been typical of prior sell-offs. Therefore it had less distance to fall in order to get back below 20. You'll notice in the chart below that during the rally in late Q1, the VIX also managed to briefly close below 20 before bouncing back into the 30s, so it will be important to watch and see whether it can stay around these levels in the future. The streak of VIX closes above 20 lasted 90 trading days, the longest since the 246 trading day streak that ended in March 2021 coming out of the COVID crash. That was the second longest streak of closes above 20 on record trailing only the 331 trading day streak that ended in December 2009. Before the COVID crash, in order to find another streak of 90 or more closes above 20 in the VIX or even 30 for that matter, you have to go all the way back to 2012.
Yeah, I think this gets to that thread "Are we in a recession". I would say no, it is not a recession, as employment is still strong. But there's definitely some bad stuff going on in the economy. And perhaps that bad stuff is a result of years and years of poor Federal Reserve policy just undermining the economy, and now it's just a matter of the employment picture catching up with it. Who knows? Eventually we will be in a recession, for whatever reason. Maybe it was the change in Fed policy that averted the big capitulation I was expecting. But I'm going to concede that the lows are made already.
Yeah the jobs market is still looking pretty strong although it is somewhat a lagging indicator, many public companies have announced layoffs recently although I can still see industries like travel and restaurants needing workers, at least the restaurants are still packed most of the time at where I live If we are gonna see any mass layoffs in retail then probably after Christmas. I am still leaning toward the thinking that we will see the new lows but I might be very wrong, if inflation eases fast enough to cause the FED to pause hiking rates in 1H of 2023 then yeah I think maybe we have seen the lows already. We will see
Longer term bond yields are rising pretty sharply today, if we see the 10 year moving back to the 3% range then I can see tech, growth and homebuilders, etc. under pressure again
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Friday to all of you! And welcome to the final trading day of the week and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under 2 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Friday, August the 12th, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 8/12/22 - Four in a Row? Fri, Aug 12, 2022 The S&P 500 has been down on three of the four trading days this week, but it is still up over 1%. Barring a sharp reversal from the current level in the futures market, this would be the fourth positive week in a row. That would be the longest winning streak since early November of last year. Today's only economic data is Import Prices at 8:30 Eastern (weaker than expected: -1.4% vs -1.0%) and then Michigan Confidence at 10 AM. As has been the case in the last couple of months, traders will be watching the level of inflation expectations in the Michigan report closely. Barring any major surprises in the data, and given the fact that it's a Friday in August, activity in the afternoon is likely to slow down. As mentioned above, futures are moderately higher while European equities are trading close to either side of the flat line, but drought conditions in the region continue to raise concerns over transportation and the region's energy needs heading into winter. While inflation data here in the US was positive this week, both France and Spain reported their highest y/y increases in over 30 years. Turning to China, five state-owned companies announced this morning that they will voluntarily delist from the NYSE. While none of these companies are particularly active on the NYSE, the symbolic nature of the delisting should not be understated and only further exacerbates the rising tensions between the two countries. Falling commodity prices have been one reason for optimism that inflation pressures may have peaked, but over the last five trading days, commodity ETFs in our Trend Analyzer tool have seen some strong moves. Energy-related ETFs have surged more than 6%, while base metals and the broader commodity space in general, have rallied 5% or more. Ag-related ETFs haven't been as strong relatively speaking, but they've still managed to rally over 2%. The only area of weakness in the space has been in precious metals, which have been led lower by gold.
I am a little surprised with the strength of this market. I feel like there are still a lot of headwinds for this market Not complaining though, while I didn't exactly buy heavily into this rally, I was able to sell some of the positions for a little bit of a profit during this rally and I have been sitting with unrealized losses for a few months with those positions
I am a little surprised with the strength of this market. Market cannot rise as long as the VIX avengers are playing.
market week ahead thread is now up on le reddits for any lookin' for some reading material over this weekend: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/wmz237/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ next week's ER calendar has also been posted here: have a doggone amazing weekend ahead y'all's! catch you's back at it again for the new trade week, same bat time same bat channel bright and early in the AM on lunes. cheers.
