Daily Discussion - Main Discussion thread

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by T0rm3nted, Feb 8, 2021.

  1. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    3,966
    Likes Received:
    3,137
    Looking to head back below 3900 SPX. See how long it possibly takes.
     
  2. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    3,966
    Likes Received:
    3,137
    NIO and RIVN holding up well today, keeping an eye on them during this pullback.
    Also got to say ANVS is also doing well, although I must add that it only trades 75k shares per day.
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Hump Day to all and welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours from the cash market open.

    GLTA on this Wednesday, September the 14th, 2022. :cool2::thumbsup:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Morning Lineup - 9/14/22 - Holding For Now
    Wed, Sep 14, 2022

    Futures were modestly higher relative to yesterday's decline for a little while this morning, but those gains have evaporated almost as fast as yesterday's decline erased the prior four days of gains. Yesterday was pretty much a bloodbath in the equity market as not a single stock in the S&P 1500 was up 5%, and only 18 stocks in the entire index of 1500 stocks were even up on the session. Strangely enough, though, only 12 stocks in the index declined 10%+. For a day when the index was down over 4%, that's a surprisingly low number. we've seen more stocks down by 10%+ on days when the broader market was only down 1%.

    After yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI report, the August PPI was right in line at the headline level with a 0.1% m/m decline and an 8.7% y/y increase. Stripping out food end energy, the m/m reading was 0.4% compared to expectations for a gain of just 0.3%. The y/y reading was also higher than expected at 7.3% versus forecasts for an increase of 7.0%. This report certainly wasn't as bad as the CPI report, but levels remain stubbornly high.

    At the open yesterday, the S&P 500 erased the prior two days of gains, and by the close, it had basically erased the gains of the two days before that. How's that for efficiency? As bad as the sell-off was, the one thing bulls have working in their favor is that the uptrend line off the June lows has held for now. If that trendline - currently around 3,920 - doesn't hold today, it won't be much of a positive backdrop for a time of year that has historically already been among the weakest times of the year.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Thursday to all and welcome to the new trading day and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little under an hour from the cash market open.

    GLTA on this Thursday, September the 15th, 2022. :cool2::thumbsup:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Morning Lineup - 9/15/22 - Lehman Day
    Thu, Sep 15, 2022

    To some, September 15th means that summer ends in a week, but others remember September 15th as the day Lehman died. Regardless of what comes to your mind first, it's a lousy day. Equity futures are lower, treasury yields are higher, and crude oil is lower heading into what is going to be a busy day for data. Things kicked off at 8:30 with jobless claims, retail sales, import prices, Empire Manufacturing, and the Philly Fed. Jobless Claims were better than expected as were Retail Sales. Import Prices were less weak than expected, and finally, both the Empire and Philly Fed reports were negative, although the Empire was slightly better than expected while the Philly report was weaker. Perhaps most notable was that in both regional Fed reports, the Prices Paid components were at the lowest levels since December 2020. At 9:15, we'll get updates on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, and then finally at 10:00 we'll finish the day of data with Business Inventories.

    Asian markets were mixed overnight while Europe is mostly higher. Japan's Finance Minister warned markets that any intervention in the currency markets would be 'swift' and not announced in advance. In Europe, an ECB policymaker said he sees price pressures spreading out in the economy and warned that the central bank might be forced to raise rates more than expected.

    September has historically been a lousy month for stocks, and the second half of the month has been notoriously weak. Over the last 40 years, the S&P 500's median performance has been a decline of 0.49% with positive returns just 40% of the time. Making matters even worse, the years where the S&P 500 was down in the second half of the month saw a much larger magnitude of decline (-1.92%) than the years when it was up (1.07%). The last ten years have been even more painful. From 2012 to 2021, the second half of September has only been up three times and the median decline has been 0.81%.

    [​IMG]
     
    anotherdevilsadvocate likes this.
  9. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    3,966
    Likes Received:
    3,137
    There we go. Now to see if we make new lows this year.
     
  10. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    3,966
    Likes Received:
    3,137
    Biotech (XBI) and TARK are actually up right now.
     
  11. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2016
    Messages:
    695
    Likes Received:
    306
    I think the SPX has to go back to test at least 4000. And so, anything non-above is a buying opportunity. Of course, we are talking about swing trading and it could hit 4000 tomorrow or it could take some time. So, whether you buy or not and at what level depends on your time frame
     
  12. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,024
    Likes Received:
    4,355
    Well back from my trip today, tomorrow is Friday so I might take tomorrow off from the market as well :p It doesn't seem like inflation is getting under control anytime soon and it means the FED needs to remain aggressive on the rate hikes :eek:
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Friday to all and welcome to the final trading day of the week and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 3 hours from the cash market open.

    GLTA on this Friday, September the 16th, 2022. :cool2::thumbsup:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Morning Lineup - 9/16/22 - At Least He Warned Us
    Fri, Sep 16, 2022

    It's looking like another day of declines heading into the weekend after FedEx (FDX) lowered guidance last night, making an already weak backdrop even weaker. FDX wasn't the only company to warn since the close yesterday. Companies like GE and Huntsman (HUN) also lowered guidance citing issues like supply chain bottlenecks and high energy costs. If the S&P 500 does finish down 1% today, it will be the sixth straight week of a gain or loss of 1%+ on the last trading day of the week. That would be the longest streak since May 2020 (ten weeks) and tied for the second-longest streak since at least 1952 (when the five-day trading week on the NYSE started).

    The only economic report on the calendar is the Michigan Sentiment report at 10 AM Eastern. Economists expect the headline reading to bounce to 60.0 from 58.2 at its last read. The most important aspect of the report to watch, though, is inflation expectations. In that respect, economists are expecting one-year inflation expectations to fall to 4.6% from 4.8% while 5-10 year inflation expectations are forecast to remain unchanged at 2.9%.

    When Powell said back in August that businesses and households would feel 'pain' from higher interest rates he wasn't lying, but is a situation like FedEx (FDX) what he had in mind? The stock is currently trading down over 20% in the pre-market which would rank as the worst single-day decline for the stock since its IPO in 1978. Declines of this magnitude weren't even felt during the 1987 crash, the financial crisis, or during the COVID crash. At the open today, FDX will still be well above its COVID lows (when global trade essentially shut down temporarily), but it will be right at levels it was trading at right before COVID hit US shores.

    Given the trends we have seen this year, you would have expected FDX to be blaming increased labor and energy costs as well as supply chain bottlenecks for the weakness in results, but those issues were notably absent. Instead, FDX cited "global volume softness that accelerated in the final weeks of the quarter" and "macroeconomic weakness in Asia and service challenges in Europe". With a warning like this, it raises the question of whether the Fed is too busy fighting yesterday's battle and missing what's on the horizon.

    [​IMG]
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  15. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2016
    Messages:
    695
    Likes Received:
    306
    The question for me is whether to exit at: 1. SPX at 3950; 2. 4000; 3. or 4100--I don't know about 4200 [at least in terms of the time frame I'm thinking about exiting for profit taking and risk management]. The SPX closed at 3873 on Friday, today.
     
    #3035 Frankenstein, Sep 16, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2022
    stock1234 likes this.
  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,024
    Likes Received:
    4,355
    WTH, WISH is now below of $1 :eek:
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Gooooooooood Saturday and a happy start to the weekend to all here!

    The market week ahead thread is now up on the Reddit for anyone looking for some brief reading material over this weekend:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/xg50zx/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/

    Next week's most anticipated earnings calendar from EW has also been published this AM. Here are the notable earnings as well as the highest vol earnings releases due out for this coming trading week.

    Have yourself an absolutely splendid weekend ahead folks and here's to another crazy awesome trading in the new week. Get that moola!

    Will catch up with y'all's same bat time, same bat channel bright and early in the AM on Monday. Cheers. :cool2:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday to all and welcome to the new trading week and a fresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over 2 hours from the cash market open.

    GLTA on this Monday, September the 19th, 2022. :cool2::thumbsup:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2021
    Messages:
    925
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Morning Lineup - 9/19/22 - More of the Same
    Mon, Sep 19, 2022

    There's very little in the way of economic or earnings data this morning, the Fed is in its blackout period, and the buyback window is closed. Therefore, there appears to be very little in the way of catalysts to interrupt the current path of equities which has been lower and interest rates which have been higher. Futures are indicating a decline of about 0.75% at the open for the S&P 500, and the 10-year yield is above 3.5%. The only economic report on the calendar today is homebuilder sentiment, and given the moves in interest rates, it's hard to imagine an upside surprise.

    The negative start to this week follows what was a lousy week for not just US equities but equities all over the world. US stocks were easily the worst performers last week with the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both falling 5%, but other major regional equity ETFs all fell at least 2.5%. Of the nine ETFs listed below, they are all at least 4% below their 50-DMAs, all of them are oversold, and all but three (SPY, ACWI, and VPL) are down 20% YTD. It’s not even three-quarters finished, but 2022 is already shaping up to be one of the worst in the post-WWII period for not just US stocks but stocks all over the world.

    [​IMG]
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    3,966
    Likes Received:
    3,137
    stock1234 likes this.

Share This Page