GM to all, happy Tuesday! Today's pre thread is now up on le Reddits for anyone lookin' for a brief read before today's cash session open. LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/y75z1h/1018_tuesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/ Meanwhile, here is the quick futes peek as we're coming into just about 30min. from the open. GL to y'all's trading on this Tuesday, October the 18th, 2022!
The SPX gapped up and hit 3762 this morning. But, oh well. I expected this as a possibility. But, I still believe in risk management. But the air up here is less oxygenated than I'd like
This rally seems to be related to quarterly earnings. The problem is how to interpret that data and what the institutional traders are doing with that--I don't know how that works in this environment--, but there's the FED tightening to keep in mind
It looks like from the charts, that the SPX is in a broad range now between 3800 to 3500. So, from that perspective, the current 3725 is way...too...high. I'm still astonished that 4000 seems to have been skipped--even though it's still possible--but it went like 4800, 4600, 4300, 4200, 3800.
Got a gap fill, I think that was the low...made on a Wednesday which is very rare but not impossible I guess. I'll watch how NFLX does this afternoon.
A little bit of selling here 10 year yields still above of 4% and the dollar remains pretty strong so I am still not feeling super bullish. NFLX earnings today and TSLA earnings tomorrow might cause some big movement in tech later this week
Apple Cuts iPhone 14 Plus Production Less Than Two Weeks After Debut — The Information Looks like AAPL is lower after the news and probably why the market is losing some of its gains here
I'm not interested in buying long until at least 3600 to 3625, but again ideally, non-above 3600 and around the 3500 level would be solid, if it were to happen
Holiday seasons coming up and we will see how the consumers will spend this year with inflation at high levels, not sure if the AAPL production cut news is any indication that the consumers are cutting back. In my area I am still seeing a lot of restaurants are packed pretty much every night so the consumers probably aren't cutting back on dining out just yet, at least at where I live
Yeah not super bullish right now. High chance we trade in a range this week, which leaves the possibility of still making the ultimate low next week. We'll see if the big tech earnings get us out of the range.
Netflix missed forward guidance for Q4: both revenues and earnings are lower than analysts were predicting. China is no longer reporting their economic numbers -- they are that bad. Yet Netflix is +15% after hours. LOL I loved that meme yesterday. "He bought puts during a recession"
GM to all, happy 35-year anniversary of the '87 crash today! Today's pre-market thread is now up on the Reddits for anyone looking for a brief read before today's cash session open. LINK: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/y828yy/1019_wednesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news/ Meanwhile, here is the quick futes peek as we're coming into just about 10min. from the open. GL to y'all's trading on this Wednesday, October the 19th, 2022!
Morning Lineup - 10/19/22 - Worse Than 1987 Wed, Oct 19, 2022 35 years ago today, US stocks experienced their largest single-day decline in history as the Dow dropped 22.6%. Back then, before most Americans had 401Ks, the stock market wasn’t nearly as enmeshed in the lives of Americans as it is today, but the plunge still was THE story of the day prompting questions over whether it was a repeat of 1929 and the depression that followed. With the benefit of time and hindsight, the market and economy quickly moved on from the 1987 crash, and it barely even registers as a blip on long-term stock charts. Since the close on 10/19/87, the S&P 500 has had an annualized total return of 10.71%. Even more notable, though, is that had you invested in the S&P 500 on the Friday before the crash, you’re annualized total return over that span would have still been just short of 10% (9.99%). Not bad for the worst-timed trade of all time. Moving to the present day, 2022 has actually been worse than 1987. After the crash in 1987, the S&P 500 was down less than 8% YTD. Today, even after a gain of nearly 4% over the last week, the S&P 500 is down more than 20% YTD or twice the decline of the S&P 500 at this point in 1987. This morning, futures are in the red after trading higher overnight as yields surge with the 10-year nearing 4.10%. Building Permits and Housing Starts were just released and came in mixed relative to expectations with starts missing forecasts while starts came in a bit higher than forecast. Mortgage applications continue to decline, though, suggesting that the sector will continue to face pressure. It’s now been a week since the S&P 500’s closing low on 10/12 (the intraday low was on 10/13), so we wanted to take a bird’s eye look at where things stand at the index and sector level. Of the Russell 2000 (IWM), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and S&P 500 (SPY), IWM probably looks best from a technical perspective. Of the three indices shown, it is the only one that didn’t violate the June lows on a closing basis and is also the only one that made a higher high even if it was just on an intraday basis. For both QQQ and SPY, the charts look very similar as last week’s lows represented lower lows, and the rally over the last few days has yet to make a higher high. At the sector level, Financials have been leading the charge, rallying more than 6% over the last week. Of the remaining ten sectors, the only one not up more than 2.5% is Utilities. Despite the gains from the last week, though, the only sector that has managed to retake its 50-day moving average is Energy, and four sectors (Technology, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities) still remain at oversold levels.
The SPX should be at above 3800 by now, if it's on a genuine bullish run. But it's struggling at the 3700 level. Of course, it's in that 3500 to 3800 no man's land right now, it seems to me
ES is at 3672. Hmmm. I wonder if that 3600 level tomorrow or Friday is possible. I expected ER to create a rally well above 3800 by now. At any rate, I want to see that 3500 to 3600 for a long entry.
