Has anything been breaking down this month? There's TSLA and COIN, but they have specific issues. There was a big deal about TGT falling after ER, but really all it did was take back one week of runup gains. Market is building a base that goes back to June.
CVNA has been going down non stop I think AMZN has been pretty weak as well lately. Finally TSLA is having a green day after getting killed lately
Meta DENIES report Mark Zuckerberg plans 'to resign as CEO in 2023' | Daily Mail Online Looks like Zuckerberg isn't leaving but yeah I guess META probably would have a very short term positive reaction if he resigns
so...i'm not sure if anyone else is in here is in the same boat as i, but i will totally have to confess here that i'm feeling a bit bored with this market as of lately. call it what you will. but i think part of it could be that we've had such a volatile trading year, that when we have days that are more like the "norm" (cue an average trading day during the fed's ZIRP/QE years) pre-this year, it feels like you're watching paint dry sometimes haha. i'll totally confess that i live for years like this year, and hoping we don't see years like 2017 for a long long time to come at least haha. i suspect holiday season probably has something to do with this, as well as the ongoing world cup tourney. plus, i guess one could say we were due for a period of calm after the record-ish daily market vol we saw for a good part of this year. ofc nothing lasts forever. nevertheless, i've all but wrapped up my year and don't plan to trade again until sometime in the new year. kinda just chilling, and watching things casually at best. not really tuning in to the day-to-day at all anymore. in fact, i'd say this is maybe my least monitoring of the daily market since i first started getting into this gig in 2005 haha. idk, market just doesn't interest me totally as much as it once did. not sure what to attribute this to tbh especially that this is the first time i've ever experienced this "lack of interest" since 2005. it's a bit crazy but anyway... yeah, mostly just casually watching things. it's been a hella interesting 2022 make no bones about it though! and my hunch says we aren't quite done yet, but maybe are in a bit of a lul period for holiday season, until things kick back up again in the new year. we shall see. 2 things for me that don't make me feel confident that a true bottom/low has been set are the following (all imo ofc to each their own) - 1.) i feel like the pre-pandemic highs never got a real true retest yet. i mean, it kinda got close on that post-CPI flush from the other month, but not quite there imo lol. - 2.) i can't say with confidence if this market has actually endured enough "pain". what i mean by that is, sure there have been plenty of indicators out there that definitely went very oversold and extreme on the downside down towards the bear lows the other month. but, get this ... the 30-company index (DJIA for those keepin' score at thome) got to within -7% of its ATH from just this past Friday's closing print. that's pretty remarkable imo, despite the other majors not even a country mile away from their highs. - 3.) this may only be me, but i don't feel like we ever really got a true washout in this market. my definition of a "real washout" is when you have the majors pegged some -7% or greater across the boards in 1 single day, that may also trip up the breakers. hence, i don't feel like there ever was any real disorderly panic selloff during the length of this bear market, like we saw during the height of the COVID correction if y'all's recall. there are other things i look at to give me some sense of if the market has truly bottomed, but alas ths post has gotten a bit long in the tooth as it is so i'l just wrap this one up here in saying.. i don't really feel like "THE" lows are in on this bear cycle just quite yet. we'll have to see how things play out. i stll think this market will see one good retest of the lows that'll bring us to finally test the pre-covid highs. then i think i'll reacess where things stand at that point. until then, yeah, i'm mostly just sitting things out on the side and watching very ocassionally as my IRL (in real life -- aka life outside of the interweb) has gotten so busy nowadays that it doesn't really leave me with much of any free time nowadays to check up on the markets no less trade, etc. hope you all had a fantastic thanksgiving holiday with you family and friends and here's a great EOY for y'all's. it's been a minute!
haha, perhaps a bit comical how the market started to take another leg down to fresh day lows as i was typing out that giant wall of text my point still stands though, but maybe with today being the exception we'll see how this pull off the pre-holiday highs shakes out. i'm not sure if we're setting up for a xmas 2018 in the market. i think after the huge bounce like we've had off the recent lows, a bit of backing off those bounce highs was overdue. though, the china protesters that fired up over the weekend on zero-covid policy is certainly helping to fuel this downside move today.
also, just a quick note that vix is still pegging in the low 20s ... that doesn't say much i know. but, not totally sure there's much fear or panic on this downside move today. this to me just seems like a lower volume move on a largely quiet market day on the news front (ex-china protest ofc) after a major holiday, so maybe "that" was just the "excuse" that the market needed to cool off a bit from the recent bounce.
Yeah might be just using China as an excuse to take some profits. I do hope the movement will get some momentum over there though since the Chinese deserve democracy as well I am still leaning bullish until the next CPI/PPI numbers, if the numbers are soft again then we might see a decent Christmas rally
Not much going on for the market I guess the big data will be the PCE on Thursday and the jobs report on Friday, seeing a soft PCE number and soft wage growth from the jobs market would be ideal for the stock market I would think Healthcare remains pretty strong and probably the safe havens for investors, names like BMY, MRK and ABBV, etc. have done extremely well lately.
Nice bullish reaction. Think the lows are in, but there is room to pullback now. SPY up to the 200 sma again. I agree that we never got the washout/capitulation. Just looking at VIX, that never hit 40. In just a normal year, we see VIX 40 3% of the time (that is 7-8 days a year, approx. 2 weeks).
A little surprised to see the market reacting so bullish on Powell, not sure if hiking by 50 bps from now on instead of 75 is all that bullish but looks like it is enough for the market to rally today
Wow SPY and IWM closing the month above the 200 sma in a mad sprint, I didn't think they'd make it. DIA was already above it. Only QQQ has yet to give that buy signal.
Bond yields and the dollar moving lower Seasonality is favorable for stocks and I think we will likely see lower inflation numbers again later this month. Short term I am leaning bullish but I think I will be bearish again for Q1 2023, either the economic slowdown or the FED saying rates will remain higher for longer should take the market down again I don't think we just bounce right back up like the old days without QE and zero interest rates.
What a day for FIVE, has been losing money since I got in January this year but I am able to sell it for a little bit of profits today lol
Big rally today to get the indexes into the green even. VIX is also below 20. Market rallies when interest rate hikes look like they will decrease (Powell yesterday) Market rallies when interest rate hikes should keep going (NFP today). Looking for a pullback to quell this building bullish optimism.
Yeah I am surprised we are not down more today after a red hot jobs report I am leaning bullish rest of the year for now unless we see some surprisingly strong inflation numbers later this month, still bearish for Q1 2023 though
