CAT actually hit ATH earlier today, kinda crazy when we are talking about a possible recession in the US next year It does have some tailwinds though on more infrastructure spending and China reopening.
I am up over 36% now. It was more of a hedge against the market downturn than I was super bearish on TSLA but I will take it
hny! just wanna give a big 'ole shout out to @stock1234 and @anotherdevilsadvocate for keeping this thread going all throughout 2022. y'all's rock. cheers.
er season just 'round the corner. here are ew's most anticipated for the next 5 weeks out. (just a quick note here too that these are only showing "confirmed" release dates as of now. hence why AAPL, MSFT, AMD, etc. are not shown on this monthly view as of yet.)
Man, SPX 3800 seems too risky. I don't know what represents a good buy here. I do, but it seems like a severe, severe collapse has to take place first. But, SPX is resilient
Chinese stocks on fire to start the year, China just began its reopening so we will see if more gains will come
MSFT keeps going lower, atlhough it has a base level struck back in October/November. AAPL is holding at least, and TSLA stopped plummeting.
Man Who Invented the Yield Curve Inversion Model, 8-for-8 in Predicting Recessions Since 1968, Warns: It is Wrong This Year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pioneering-yield-curve-economist-sees-151304568.html Economist Campbell Harvey has had a winning track record since he showed in his dissertation at the University of Chicago decades ago that the shape of the bond yield curve was linked to the path of US economic activity. “My yield-curve indicator has gone code red, and it’s 8 for 8 in forecasting recessions since 1968 — with no false alarms,” Harvey, now a professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, said in a[n] interview Tuesday. “I have reasons to believe, however, that it is flashing a false signal.” One of the reasons is the fact the yield curve-growth relation has become so well known and widely covered in popular media that now it impacts behavior, he said. The awareness induces companies and consumers to take risk-mitigating actions, such as increasing savings and avoiding major investment projects — which bode well for the economy. Another boost to the economy is coming from the job markets, where the current excess demand for labor means laid-off workers will likely find new positions more quickly than usual. In addition, he said, given the largest job cuts so far have been in the tech sector, those highly skilled recently fired workers are also not apt to be unemployed for very long. RATES NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION The level of real yields also casts doubt on the recession signal. US 10-year yields adjusted for inflation are likely well above corresponding three-month ones. While there are no three-month break-even rates, cross-referencing the latest annual CPI reading with one-year break-evens would return a negative real rate for the tenor, compared with 10-year real yields above 1.5%. [it is possible that the 3-month real rate is still negative...so QE is not totally dead yet?]
Now that the tree shaking is over its time to switch the machines to green mode. Countdown to power hour.
The price action seems extremely bullish this morning--but...it's all happening within the same range. I'd rather protect my money. All time high in my account--but barely, BTW. I want a better entry point for a long. This is too risky. In this range, it all seems so random. I learned from last year, it's better to have a nice entry point rather than endless finessing to end up just barely making a profit.
I am mostly a seller today to get more cash available, my order for BABA filled on the morning while I was sleeping but probably not chasing this rally here rest of the day. Wage growth slowing and the ISM services contracted are good news but still long way to go for inflation to come down to the more acceptable levels
Sharp move up this morning. JPow speaking tomorrow, probably have a sharp move down to get us moving sideways this week.
