Good lets hope flat to higher rest of year. I agree. P.S. Federal judge allow @JetBlue to buy @SpiritAirlines Airlines where looking at $20 a share.
I know lol it is kinda strange, maybe there is some buying since the downside is pretty limited for the VIX here unless you think it is going to single digits
It was the pivot from the FED today (at least the market seems to think so), a recession is unlikely to happen in the early part of 2024, my guess is we probably have enough time to cheer the SPX all the way to a new ATH before things begin to get tougher in the later part of 2024
wow crazy, new highs already?! granted it's only that 30 company index making the new high, but still! i would have never thought new highs were even possible this year after the way the markets cratered last year. pretty impressive, even if it is only on the dow for right now. i believe the NDX isn't too far off from its high. and cash spx just about a hundo handles away i think? i do wonder now though, just how much of this rally we've seen lately is pulling ahead the santa claus rally? this has been a pretty powerful run higher over the past few weeks. seems a bit overdone on the upside right now. not suggesting this needs to correct here right now, but some pullback/sideways action would be pretty healthy here imo. also, yes for those wondering i'm back again after a long break here, and really excited for it. many thx to @StockJock-e <3 for helping me setup my new account here. i'll try to check in here with some market commentary. albeit, full disclosure i have no skin in the market right now and haven't all year to this point. but, i'm looking to be more engaged in the markets in the new year! should be an interesting year with it also being election year. hope you guys have all been doing great. it's been a minute.
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Thursday to all of you and welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrresh start. Here is a quick check on those futures as we are a little over an hour from the US cash market open. GLTA on this Thursday, December the 14th, 2023!
Good Thursday morning Stockaholics! Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a great new trading day ahead!
Morning Lineup - 12/14/23 - Follow Through Thu, Dec 14, 2023 US markets are experiencing a bit of follow-through this morning following the monster rally in stocks and bonds yesterday afternoon. While the Fed was the main event for the week, the ECB just announced no change in rates but moved forward its target date for when it expects to reach 2.0% inflation. Besides the ECB, there are several other central banks announcing decisions today as well. With the Fed now officially on hold, good economic news can be viewed as good again while the market may not be quite as receptive to soft data. We got the first test this morning with Retail Sales (higher than expected), Jobless Claims (lower than expected), and Import Prices (lower than expected) at 8:30 followed by Business Inventories at 10:00. In reaction to this first batch of reports, futures have seen little in the way of a reaction in either direction. After a cruel summer sell-off that kicked off in August and all but erased the enchanted rally that spanned the months of May, June, and July, the market found itself in a delicate position in late October as the uptrend from the bear market lows in 2022 that we all remembered all too well were being tested. Right around Halloween, all bulls could think was, is it over now? In reaction to yesterday’s explicit pivot from Fed Chair Powell on interest rates, treasury yields have plunged, crossing some important milestones in the process. We’ll start at the short end of the curve. With the 2-year yield plunging 30 basis points (bps) yesterday, its closing level was 4.43% which is the same level it started the year at. This morning, the 2-year yield is down an additional 10 bps which also puts it within just a couple of basis points of being flat on a year/year basis as well. The 10-year yield fell 18 bps yesterday to close at 4.02%, and this morning it’s down another eight bps to 3.94%. As shown in the chart below, that’s still up slightly on the year, but crossing below the 4% boundary is an important psychological barrier. What’s also notable about the decline in the 10-year yield this morning is that it is now down more than 100 bps from its recent closing high on 10/19. Since the FOMC first started talking about hiking rates back in late 2021 the current decline is the largest we have seen to date.
I sold my stock today for a profit. I know it's coming back down in a few days. Can't be that bullish right?
Equity markets in Europe and the US look stretched on every front: flows, momentum and technical levels — leaving little headroom if the message from Chair Jerome Powell disappoints. With the S&P 500 just 3% short of a record and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index near its highest level since 2001, the stakes haven’t been this elevated before a Fed meeting since the rates pause in July. A speedy switch from short-to-long equities by commodity trading advisers, who usually trade on market momentum, has been a major factor behind the $4.6 trillion rally in US stocks since Oct. 27. The shift has now left CTAs sitting on a $106 billion in long bets, which Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says leaves them more inclined to sell, rather than buy. “We have this cohort modeled to sell S&P 500 in every scenario over the next week,” Goldman’s derivatives and flow specialist Cullen Morgan wrote in a note to clients. It follows a warning from his colleagues last week that dangerously high optimism on stocks means there are “no longer any bears left.”
i'm not sure if cash spx can print the new highs before the new year. but, it does feel like the markets are mostly comfortable hanging around these levels here. seems like absent something shockingly bad, market bias remains sideways to higher. things have run up pretty hard recently, and a pullback would be really healthy for this market. i'm not sure if we'll see it during what is traditionally a bullish time period. we shall see. it's worth noting that the "official" SCR (santa claus rally) doesn't actually begin until a week after tomorrow. it's gauged from the final 5 trading days of the current year, and first 2 of the new year. i suspect we'll see choppy action to close out the year, again barring something completely out of left field. hope you guys have all had a great trading week/year to this point. i should be back to some regular market monitoring again in the new year.
Here is a final look at today's market and futures maps, as well as how each sector performed individually at the close on Thursday, December 14th, 2023. Have a great rest of your day everyone!
Let's see if we will have a SCR this year, the market has rallied so much already so I am expecting more like flat to slightly up for rest of the year If yields continue to stay down then I can see small/mid caps continue to outperform, today it seems like the big winners of the year sold off while those stocks in the red for the year are rallying
