ISM data was solid this morning but we are selling off regardless, the yen carry trade is being unwinded here I think, those big cap tech stocks probably have benefited from those yen carry trades before the recent selloff
yeah when you start hearing things like "worst since 1987" like for japan's nikkei index, that definitely gets some eyebrows raised. that was a breathtaking move overnight think the VIX was up an absurd amounts earlier in the premarkets. think it over 65 which does not happen often at all lol.
Yep lol what a crazy move over there and we could continue to see the selloff in Japan if the yen continues to gain strength. The solid ISM services number probably has saved our market from a total disaster today
Global market rout has more to do with end of cheap funding than US economy | Reuters I think I kinda agree, if it was about the US economy then we probably would have bounced harder on that ISM number today, cheap funding probably has pushed big cap tech stocks to some unreasonable levels.
just to put a quick visual of how rare it was to see a VIX print north of 60 yesterday, it's only happened in 2 other instances in history. in 2008 during the GFC and in 2020 during the height of the covid crash.
I got in a few stocks EOD yesterday up like a villain today holding long. Check this Markets going up more. Federal Reserve to cut by 50bps in September and November: Wells Fargo
early glance at next week's notable ERs courtesy of reddit's wallstreetbets for those wanting to look ahead:
Yes, I kinda agree, too. But the real question is this: will the cheap funding that lead to high inflation and overpriced stock markets (read: potential house-of-cards type bubble) soon continue apace, with more inflation and bigger bubbles to follow?
...and after the wild week of yuuge up’s and down’s, the SPX ends just short of UNCH’d (-0.04% to be exact) on the week
Will be interesting to see if the SPX does eventually make it down to an official correction (-10% from ATHs) at some point in these next few weeks/months. I believe @stock1234 mentioned that it just missed hitting it intraday on Monday. I’m not sure if the worst is over yet. That said, I admittedly don’t feel too confident in thinking that a new bear is about to unleash. I think so far this has been a pretty garden variety market pullback from extreme overbought levels. As said before, the markets are innocent until proven guilty for me. We shall see if that changes in the weeks to come. Have a good weekend gents.
Oh and finally just a quick update on the pullback levels for the majors after this week. Despite what was one of the most volatile weeks in the markets in a few years, the SPX is still just off a little over -5% from the ATH intraday. The DJ30 even less, only around -4.5% not too shabby after Monday’s bloodbath. And a crazy VIX reading that morning. I don’t think this just V-shapes back to the highs from here. But a nice recovery from the panic lows on Monday. And I wouldn’t even call it a panic but whatever.
Following the comeback this week, the S&P 500 is now just 2% away from its mid-July record high. Data this week helped assuage a jittery market. Retail sales data released Thursday came in much stronger than economists expected, while weekly jobless claims fell. Both offered evidence that recession fears, which helped spark a global sell-off earlier this month, were overblown. Inflation readings released earlier this week also bolstered hopes that a soft landing scenario was still possible
Good question, I wish I know the answer lol. This yen carry trade impacts seem to be mostly done for now, Japan has a new Prime Minister coming up though and sounds like a candidate who prefers stronger yen has a pretty good chance to win, if we see yen getting stronger very quickly again then we might see a quick selloff in stocks again. For now it looks good, no US recession and interest rates are about to go lower, if we see a big selloff because a bubble is deflating then I would be ready to buy pretty aggressively
I am surprised this volatility is finished so quickly lol, I thought we probably would see a 10% correction for the SPX but we fell just short of it and now it looks much more likely we will see a new ATH rather than a 10% correction lol.
Yeah it’s looking like a V-shape back to the highs crazy While recession fears appear to be overblown, I don’t know that we’re totally all clear from here. I feel like a retest of the pullback low could still happen as we head into the elections. At best it’ll be choppy as the markets have gone from short term oversold back to short term overbought again That being all said, I think the prospects of an EOY rally (Santa) are looking good, absent any black swans. Let’s see how the markets work off these overbought extremes again. Nothing moves in straight lines for long.
Gonna be going MIA for the next couple as we near the unofficial close to summer. Final summer vacay upcoming and all.. Let’s get some weekend discussions rolling in here. I’m especially interested to hear what everyone thinks about the current state of the market and where y’all believe things could be headed from here. Next week is going to be mostly about NVDA, but what do we think about the near term market going into EOY. Missing contributions mightily from Marcy, Frankenstein and stock124 here. I admittedly don’t follow the day-to-day action much anymore. With IRL taking precedence over trading and market monitoring. I’m hoping to get back in the saddle again next year. I will say this bounce back off the pullback lows to near ATHs definitely caught me by surprise. Basically took back everything in a matter of days. Impressive. Let’s hear where others stand on the state of everything and where you think things might go from here and why. What you think could be a big stand out into year’s end, etc, etc. Will be very interested to hear everyone’s inputs and insights here, even if you’re just a long term investor. Will catch up with y’all’s next month. Have a great rest of your summer guys!
Sorry have been a little busy, I have not done a lot of buying lately except for that quick correction earlier this month, basically just riding my positions and taking profits off the table with some small cap names that I own Rest of the year will be interesting although we just have about 4 months left, election is coming up and this market is still trying to speculate how many rate cuts or how big of an economic slowdown we will see rest of the year. Election probably isn't that big of an event and the market might just have some very short term reaction then business back to normal as long as no one party takes the White House, the Senate and the House. If one party takes both the White House and the Congress then it could have some longer term impacts to the market. For now the near term prospects are still looking pretty good for the market. The FED looks set to start cutting rates next month although I am not sure if they will cut all that aggressively. Economy is slowing a little but it doesn't look like we are anywhere close to a recession. The US consumers are pretty resilient, I think they will keep spending even some of them might be struggling a little financially. Overall, I am leaning bullish but I could change my mind if the economy begins to run into some trouble. You are absolutely right on the NVDA earnings, it would probably be the biggest catalyst for the market next week. Almost zero chance they are gonna miss on earnings or lower guidance I would think but expectations are sky high for sure lol. If the guidance is just in line or even worse lower than expected then I expect a pretty big selloff in tech and AI names, I am not betting against NVDA yet for the next couple of quarters for sure though. Semiconductor is still very cyclical though and I wouldn't be surprised seeing NVDA starting to come back down to earth at some point next year. Good luck rest of the year guys. It has been a pretty good year for me and I guess a lot of traders/investors have an even better year than I do, this year I have been able to unload some of the small cap junks that I have been bagholding for awhile for profits though rather than just getting most if not all of my gains from the big caps. I think I got too carried away and bought too many small cap junks when the FED was doing QE non stop, will try to avoid the same mistake in the future.
Some good thoughts from you and stock1234. Being a long termer, I'm not too focused on most of the near term stuff with regard to my plan. However, I do not totally ignore the world around me either. My guess....we are in a pretty decent spot as we head to years end. The earnings were pretty good overall, inflation has eased the right direction, and the economy/consumers have held up through most of the many unknowns through the previous and current year. Looks good to me for now, but I certainly could be wrong..
