A crazy rally lol. I have been buying since last week although of course I wish I have bought more but I didn’t feel like I wanted to be too heavily invested. Bought GAP and VFC after the initial news on the tariffs pause and even they are up pretty nicely now although I didn’t buy at the lows
Now the question becomes did the market get propped up yesterday with algorithmic buying and misunderstanding of the news, or do people view worldwide tariffs of 10% + 125% on China as good news at this point. I'm pretty sure a little over a week ago the market had been creeping down in anticipation of liberation day (4/2 after market close) resulting in worldwide tariffs rumored to be 10%. This was perceived as bad news, which is why the market had been working it's way down, and now the price is higher than it opened after liberation day (and just a little bit below where it opened on 4/2). My questions for the market are: 1. Are worldwide tariffs of 10% including 125% on China good news for the market? 2. How much of the 10%+ bull run yesterday was algorithmic buying from the ecstasy of good news? 3. How many people during of that massive move up heard 90 day pause and thought that meant 90 day pause on all tariffs, and not just the >10% tariffs? 4. For those that saw how low the market got and think to themselves "worldwide tariffs are still on right now and in 90 days we have to deal with this again", how many of them are going to use this opportunity to get out at what they think will be higher prices? I don't know the answer to any of these as an absolute, I'm just thinking through what people in my circles are talking about and how they are thinking. I wouldn't be shocked over the next 90 days to approach ATH's, or be down 10% from yesterday's lows.
I think you bring up some valid points/questions. 1) Just from a individual viewpoint. I think the tariffs have been implemented with a "flashbang" approach. They certainly could have been more thought out and planned in a much different way. Bottom line consumers are going to pay more. This on/off again and different messaging is contributing to an already uncertain environment. 2) I think a lot of it. 3) Not sure, but I do think it gave some investor's hope that some of this might get watered down and lowered through negotiations during the 90 days. Although, this can change quickly and daily as we have seen. 4) I'm in long term, so I'm just in it at this point regardless. I could see some of that happening with other investors trimming some of that and seeing it as an exit ramp. Anyway, good thoughts and discussion. My view....we are not out of the woods. The longer view will be what we end up with and how much that will cost consumers and businesses. That's where the major rub will be.
dang. i'm a bit p.o.'d. i've missed pretty much this entire recent volatility surge in the markets over the past few weeks... have been experiencing some extreme turbulence in my IRL unfortunately, thus it's had my focus elsewhere instead of the markets. pretty monumental moves we have seen in the majors since liberation day. it's amazing to me that trump holds most of the "largest" market moves we have seen in history, since going back to the covid crash of 2020 lol. we're only, what, 3 months into his second term and we're already seeing such insane vol in the markets. i can't image the rest of this year being basically what we've seen. i think at some point we will get back to a level of normalcy again. pretty epic moves though the past few weeks. as trump would sometimes say -- "the likes of which have never been seen before".
Adding my long term holdings slowly on every big pullback, I think we might not see a rapid recovery like we used to in recent years but we will see
Hope your real life situation is now better Cy. My mom went to an emergency room last week too due to diarrhea but she is okay now.
And it's not about what WE think...but how the institutional traders are interpreting the Trump antics
Made a quick trade for SVIX since I didn't have much time to watch the market today, held for 15 minutes and got 1% profit out of it, not much but money is money
Excellent move...timing is the thing in this volatility...always another "opportunity"--so cash in on the profits, man!
I want to enter long...but I don't like this 5250 level--it could go up, but it's not a sane level, I feel
