Got in BABA weeks ago, was losing a little bit of a patience with it but now finally profitable with my position
Yeah I got in BABA right before the pop. Other positions moved a lot too at end of day, I know the small caps were supposed to re-balance/re-constitute but that doesn't explain BABA. I heard SPCE popped because Virgin Orbit (not Virgin Galactic) hired a guy from SpaceX.
Very nice! I am losing my patience with BitCoin. It is absolutely killing me right now. id be very happy with my performance if it were not for BitCoin. But I know that has the ability to get a lot better or a lot lot worse a lot worse.....
I have had Quest bars in the past. Some are OK. When I was focused on bodybuilding and cutting weight, they were a decent snack or breakfast at 200 calories and 20g protein.
lol that's been the theme of 2021 more or less pretty mundane period we're in right now. and not that it's of any surprise either. we are after all in the thick of the summer doldrums period now as we head into the 4th of july holiday this weekend. i know i've said this like an umpteenth amount of times in here, but i persoanlly don't think anything noteworthy will happen in the market (at least as far as the major indices are concerned anyway) until maybe around august-ish when we have the fed's jackson hole event. my guess is that the market will remain pretty choppy/sideways/range bound during this summer, outside of something that completely and utterly surprises everyone and their aunts. cue the black swan. but otherwise, pretty boring market action here, aside from a few names like the ape-WSB moving stonks of course. not gonna lie though, but i would welcome a covid-esque correction. but that won't happen w/o a black swan catalyst imo... sidenote: i'm 100% out of the market atm. gonna just enjoy the summer now that i've been vaccinated and want to spend a bit more time outdoors after last year. it's been lovely! don't mind if the markets continue to remain boring though as i don't feel like i'm missing too much of the action anyway.
quite the chop fest in the majors...i feel like this pic is appropriate for today. you show 'em vince! haha.
Today was definitely a little weird but mostly uneventful other than MDWD getting rejected by the FDA for NexoBrid. That hurt me but I am still a long-term holder as I do believe they will correct and re-submit. Plus countries will still discuss stockpiling NexoBrid for human health response. I sold NKE, BABA, and CHWY today. WISH and CLOV yesterday. Decided to Lock in some profits. More out of necessity than choice. I still cant find a decent job.
ahaha. couldn't have said that better myself. pretty much nailed to a tee there imo. i never try to wish for bad things for anything, but imho a black swan appearance (on the market) would be kind of welcoming here lol. i know i've made numerous references of 2017 in here over the past few months. but, i'm reeeeeeeeally hoping we're not gonna do another one of those years here. that was by far one of the most boring market years i can ever remember. there was hardly any dip in the majors for that full year. don't get me wrong here -- i'm all for up markets, but i do like the 2 sided market myself. but this 2 steps forward, 2 steps back rinse and repeat thing can get quite old lmao. hopefully we'll see some return to vol after the 4th holiday. but i have my doubts. more likely something in august around the fed's jackson hole event maybe. but i think absent something completely out of left field that shocks everyone, think this market remains choppy at best. pretty uneventful, lifeless, with no real conviction in either direction. someone wake me when we see a nice -2% day in the majors.
My spider-sense is Black Swan event sometime between July 3rd and September 6th (Labor Day), potentially not until early- October. One possibility being the death of Joe Biden. Other's could include a massive power grid failure, mainland terrorist attack, or some other unpredictable event.
I don't usually think about Black Swans, but aren't they things that never happened before? And their crisis is that we don't know how to model their effects? We've had a president murdered, and a mainland terrorist attack. Still those things would be abnormal and likely to bring the market down. But the pedantic in me wouldn't call them Black Swans. Although a combination of those things could be a Black Swan. Like the President being murdered by a foreign terrorist, or the power grid being taken down by a foreign terrorist. Don't overlook losing the internet for a week, that would be a Black Swan; especially seeing as how the original intent of the internet was to be something that would persist during a warfare attack. The way the internet has evolved, It might be possible for the ISPs to be taken down.
Funny you brought up losing the internet for a week. I was tempted to include that in my list of possible "black swan," scenarios. Majority of people and institutions would be crippled by an internet outage. My use of "Black Swan Event," refers to any unpredictable or random negative event.
read this book. ---------------------- A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.
Yesterday's SPY volume of 35.9M was the lowest of the year; we might go lower than that today. It's the doldrums.
