Daily Discussion - Main Discussion thread

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by T0rm3nted, Feb 8, 2021.

  1. ddebrazza

    ddebrazza Active Member

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    I am inclined to believe this is the pattern we are set to see except I see the down drawn out a couple weeks longer. Instead of a Labor Day rebound I am thinking a pre-Black Friday rebound. Holiday spending season is going to tell a lot about the state of the US economy and the state of the Fear Index among consumers.
     
  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  3. removedatuserrequest

    removedatuserrequest Well-Known Member

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    ye i feel like that would be super healthy for the market too.

    but, idk, every time i get a good feeling about some downside action, market does an about-face rippin' faces back to new highs rinse and repeat.

    would love to see a good summer pullback/correction...would be very refreshing and healthy to see imho.

    i know we have the ER season that's about to heat up in a bigly way soon. but aside from maybe the NFPs at the start of next month, not sure what other noteworthy events are out there that could get things moving convincingly in either directions.

    been saying this for a couple of months now, but my eyes are front and center on that Jackson Hole event at the end of next month. thinking there could be a bit of squireliness ahead of that as well. we shall see.

    aside from all of that though, not really seeing anything too intriguing on the market front, especially as we are now in the thick of the "summer doldrums" period. i suspect the overall market direction will remain choppy / rangebound until at least next month. absent of course the black swan.

    full disclosure here, i 100% have no skin in the game rn. just mostly enjoying my summer, after last summer's shit fest with covid.

    still monitoring on a semi-occasion. but, likely won't really get back into it full time again until after the summer.

    hope everyone is also enjoy their summer!! :)
     
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  4. removedatuserrequest

    removedatuserrequest Well-Known Member

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    btw, wanted to also just quickly point out this chart as it had caught my attention earlier today. small caps index has definitely been coming off here. that's a weird looking chart, but it's failed on every attempt to really break out to new highs. interrrrrrresting. perhaps a foreshadowing of things to come for the majors eh? :hmm:

    iwmdaily1.png
     
  5. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  6. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    When appetite for high risk goes down, the rest of the market should follow.
     
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  7. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Interesting you bring that up.
    Looking at the VIX, I got the ceiling coming down until that event, the floor at 15, and I marked that day (it is 26th-28th) on the chart.
    Just showing a 2-day interval on the chart so I could fit in the 2020 peak.
    [​IMG]
    If this chart plays out then it's exactly like you've been saying. A bunch of choppiness for another month...
     
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  8. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yields still moving lower but value easily outperformed today. Small caps getting hammered lately :eek:
     
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  9. ddebrazza

    ddebrazza Active Member

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    Its a good time to be sitting on the sideline.

    I cant wait until I have some funds again. Ford sitting at 14.02$ seems like a good BUY right now too. Lots of good value to be had.
     
  10. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  11. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Health Care (XLV) looks to me like the best sector right now.
     
  12. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Very red day today. I am managing green with a lot of REITs. I also see utilities are very green.

    This is such a strange market environment. SPY and QQQ just hit ATH on Wednesday; heck DIA hit its ATH today even.
    Yet the Fear & Greed index is currently 27; looks like we will be getting sub-20 soon. How in heck is there so much fear with the major indices at ATH?

    I mean the Chinese market (KWEB) is bad, that I can believe is experiencing extreme fear.

    If we get sub-20 on the Fear & Greed index, then that is a good time to buy. Yet the major indices are at ATH, lol.

    We'll see if we get a dip next week.
     
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  13. ddebrazza

    ddebrazza Active Member

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    Very Red day indeed. I think it is an overall trend that will stretch for at least the next couple months.

    Hoping this provides me a very nice re-entry point into the market right around Mid- September.
     
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  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    The VIX is hardly doing anything today and we've had 3 or 4 near -1000 TICKs.
    Targeting SPX 4290, the low of the month. But we'll see if the bears can push it lower. It's kinda looking like bearish sentiment is at an extreme already, believe it or not?
     
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  15. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    There's always a bull market somewhere, and I'll help you find it. The big weights here are DHR and TMO.
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Semiconductors looking a little weak here, NVDA down big 2 days in a row. Apple suppliers not getting much love despite the news of Apple is looking to increase production for the iPhone
     
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  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    This market is looking a little defensive here, let's see if sectors like healthcare, real estate and utility will outperform in the near future :D Real estate has done pretty well lately
     
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  18. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    @bearmarketcrash has been saying this market reminds him of 2017, and I agree. What was the biggest pullback that year, 4%?
     
  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    IWM (small caps) not too far away from the 10% correction :D
     
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  20. removedatuserrequest

    removedatuserrequest Well-Known Member

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    here are next week's most anticipated earnings releases per ew:
    er1.png
     
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