Hope this issue gets resolved quickly for you guys. I'm able to use it now. I was getting worried that I would have to dust off the ol' crystal ball instead.
An interesting tidbit, probably not possible to trade on it since it is purely looking backward. @bespokeinvest · 5h Obviously this is an impossible strategy to implement because you don't know whether volume will be above or below average each day, but it shows why they say to "never short a dull market." http://bespokepremium.com
The Black Swan is coming. Under 60 days. Approaching the 20 year Anniversary of 9/11. As ISIS-K regroups and the Taliban has taken control of Afghanistan, I would not at all be surprised to see another attack on US soil. I am considering soft targets that may be of interest to ISIS to disrupt daily life in the US and cause fear and chaos. An attack on the power grid or even something less strategic like conducting a suicide bombing of an NFL stadium during a game with thousands of fans in attendance. results in a 10%+ < correction in the market
Good morning contrarians! Stock futures are up a bit this morning. Major indices about 0.2% to 0.3% higher as of 0635. Bond markets are flat. Everything else is quiet. The major event today is of course Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. That is set for 0900 CDT, so 1000 on the east coast. There are a bunch of other speakers today as well. The Kansas City Fed website has the full schedule of proceedings. The speculation is on whether Powell will announce tapering of bond purchases and if so, what the timing of said tapering will be. His remarks will be streamlined live on the Fed’s YouTube channel. The market appears pretty confident Powell will not make a specific statement to tapering. That would still put the start of tapering for later this year or early next, with interest rates to rise late in 2022. So anything that could upend that confidence should (if last week’s Fed minutes are any guide) spook markets. It’s unclear if Powell could say anything to buoy investor confidence further. I suppose there’s something, but the risk appears firmly weighted to the downside here. Ultimately, timing of bond purchases is pretty irrelevant where the direction of the economy is concerned. All this does is remove some liquidity from the bond market. Economic activity in the private sector will continue at its current pace and perhaps even accelerate. Markets too: With the risk-free rate at or near zero, it simply doesn’t make much sense for investors to park their assets in fixed income for very long. Once higher interest rates take hold it will change things and eventually it will grind the economy to a halt — and a bear market will ensue. But that takes years, if the last couple of interest rate tightening cycles are any guide. Before Powell, we get the latest figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures Index at 0830. This is the Fed’s preferred gauge of consumer price inflation. It shouldn’t affect what Powell has to say (those remarks have been written already) but should add noise to the commentary. (Key word being noise. This is all a bunch of Fed nerd stuff, if we’re being honest. Yeah short term things will shift but over the long term it’s hard to see how this is a major watershed event. But we’ll see).
They are facing inflation and supply chains issues. I would be looking to buy some ROST and DG if these see further pullback though. Hard to be bearish on names like ROST or TJX when I see many love shopping in those places
Cristiano Ronaldo agrees stunning Man United return https://www.espn.com/soccer/soccer-...ano-ronaldo-agrees-stunning-man-united-return I hardly pay attention to MANU but checked it out a bit after seeing the news, looks like up 6% on the news Not really a good stock to trade though since trading volume is very low usually
Amazon Partners with Affirm to Deliver Pay-Over-Time Option at Checkout | Business Wire AFRM surging AH on the news BNPL is hot now I got in at a very poor entry at triple digit before averaging down to about $76.02, seems like I got a little lucky on this news
I don't believe that group of dummies did it, neither do more than 2000 structural engineers, architects, and material scientists who have been fighting for a re-investigation into the 911 event. But nevertheless, mission accomplished, another step closer to total control of the population. Don't worry about the anniversary, those who are not already being tracked by cell phones are being tracked.
Not saying you’re wrong. And admittedly this stuff is out of my field of knowledge. I’m hardly the political guru/junkie or whatever. But i’m not entirely sure how one could automatically arrive at that conclusion (the market pulling back -10% or greater solely on the event you described — that’s a bit over the top on the “fear mongering” scale for me to be honest). But hey, to each their own I guess. Like I said, I hardly know politics, since I do feel that is just largely all “noise” in the bigger picture anyway.. But that’s just me. Don’t get me wrong though. I wouldn’t mind to see this market come in -10% or greater. That would be lovely actually. And it would be perfectly healthy, not to mention a pretty normal occurrence. I just don’t see how one can connect a black swan event like the one you described as something automatic like a -10% market correction. That’s not how it works. But hey, IDFK what I’m talking about so don’t mind me here. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Markets getting a bit overextended here in the short term though, so if a significant pullback happened during a black swan headline, of course the talking heads will quickly point the finger that the news caused the selloff. Those gooberheads always need something to talk about lmao. EDIT: Also, just to be clear here, I’m in no way downplaying such a horrific event like that. Would be really sad and discouraging to say the least. Hopefully such acts can be thwarted but who knows nowadays.. :/ But as for the market, think it’s proven it’s resilience in the face of such negatives. Just sayin’.
Not sure how many of you are regular readers of Reddit, but I've just put out my market week ahead thread on the r/StockMarket subreddit, which is the official subreddit community for Stockaholics. Y'all's can find my thread over at this link here: https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/pd8v8x/wall_street_week_ahead_for_the_trading_week/ Have yourself a wonderful weekend ahead all!
I wasnt linking the items necessarily. I have been calling for a Black Swan Event between August and November for several months now. I just happen to remember that 9/11 is approaching and it just so happens to be the 20th Anniversary. No clue if my Black Swan has anything to do with Terrorism or 9/11 but something is coming. Winter Is Coming. lol
Ah, I see thanks for clarifying that. Yeah, and just a bit more on what I was saying in my OP from the other day (and I know you just said above that you don't connect events to market movements) but really I don't ever try to connect events as such with the equity market movements, cause admittedly I do genuinely feel the market usually always does its own thing, that isn't necessarily connected to events. Not entirely discounting that though. Maybe there's somethings behind it. But for me personally, I've been in this gig for coming up on 15 years now. I feel the market is its own animal if you will. It will do what it will do, irregardless of "the news" if you will. Are there very short term market moves to big headlines? Sure, I think there's some truth to that. But overall, I really don't even pay much of any attention to the news at all nowadays anymore. Well, actually really haven't for a really long time now if I'm being 100% honest haha. I just think much of that is "NOISE" in the bigger picture. But hey, like I had said in my post before, that may only just be me. To each their own. I hardly ever base anything off of the news. I feel that's for the herd mentality, and for the sheeple like the "talking heads" out there (or as I like to call them "gooberheads" lmfao), to point fingers at something for being the "cause" of something. Like the market moving off of news. It's just what it is, and always has been IMO. Again, I'm not downplaying the threats that you mentioned above. They are definitely real and discouraging to say the least. But, IMHO (just my 2c anyway) I don't think some black swan event like a terrorist attack is going to stop people from going out like COVID did. Is an attack going to shut down the economy? People are still going to shop, still going to eat out and do their normal life (as they should!), albeit just being more mindful of the threat, etc. That alone isn't going to tank the market or trigger a correction. But, maybe I'm just totally talking out of my @$$ what do I know. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Lol. Anyway, I do see your point though @ddebrazza. But, just don't think that's going to do much to the market in the long run, despite how tragic and awful such events would cause. To be perfectly 100% honest with you, I'm 1,000 times more fearful of catching the COVID (whatever the heck variant names are out there now) and potentially dying from that, than being involved and dying in a terrorist attack. I mean the "odds" anyway. Sorry if it seems I'm totally downplaying it, I'm really not. Just saying that for me personally, I'm just far more afraid of catching that doggone virus (despite even being fully vaccinated) than a terrorist event. This is definitely getting to be a bit too politics-heavy for me, and as I mentioned in my OP from the other day, I really don't know jack shit for politics, hence why I try to stay away and keep my nose out of things that don't belong, since I just don't know it as well as I do the markets.. Just my 2c here is all. Carry on.
Good morning contrarians! Absolutely nothing doing in futures as of 0630. Flat as a board. Energy and energy stocks aren’t even doing anything in reaction to Hurricane Ida. This follows a broad-based rally in risk assets to close the week after Fed chair Jerome Powell spoke at the (virtual) Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell’s comments were viewed as generally dovish, especially around interest rates. An informal poll on my Twitter found only 14% of respondents saying the speech was more hawkish. The major economic data release for today is pending home sales, out at 1000. An increase of 0.4% is anticipated after last month’s surprising 1.9% decline. Pending home sales are notoriously difficult to predict (even more than other data, which economists also fail to predict accurately). The point is that this data point has been fluctuating a bit after big gains late last year. Something to watch where the overall health of the U.S. economy is concerned. Couple of earnings reports of note today. Cloudera (CLDR) is due to report before the open at 0930. Zoom Video (ZM) after the close at 1600. Should be quiet, then. There will be lots of talk about the non-farm payrolls report, due out Friday, and how the market will be sitting on pins and needles until then. Don’t buy it. For one this is the last (informal) week of summer before the Labor Day holiday weekend in the U.S. For another, the NFP report just doesn’t matter all that much (I say this every month but it’s true. Just look at the (lack of) market reaction if you don’t believe me). https://contrarianpod.substack.com/p/no-ida-reaction-pending-home-sales
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Monday to all of you! And welcome to the first trading day of the new week and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick look in at the futures as we are about 2 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Monday, August the 30th, 2021!
Morning Lineup - 8/30/21 - Slow Start to the End of August Mon, Aug 30, 2021 It's hard to get closer to unchanged in the futures markets this morning than we are now. The S&P 500 is indicated to open up by 3 points, the Nasdaq by 12, and the Dow higher by 10 points. While Hurricane Ida continues to slam Louisiana and the deadline for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan approaches, market-moving news is scarce this morning. In terms of economic data, Pending Home Sales will be released at 10 AM, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report comes out a half-hour later. Last week was a good one for the US equity market with the S&P 500 rallying about 1.5% and the Russell 2000 surging more than 5%. Across individual sectors, though, returns for the week were mixed. For sectors like Energy, Financials, and Materials, it was a great week with all three rallying more than 2.5% and Energy surging by triple that rate. Despite the surge in Energy stocks, though, it is still the only sector that heads into the week below its 50-day moving average. On the other end of the spectrum, Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care all actually fell more than 1% while Real Estate was also lower. Given its weighting in the overall market, the sector that really matters is Technology, and with a gain of 1.45% that was actually up pretty much right in line with the broader market.
So, absent a total and monumental collapse of the market today and tomorrow to close out the month, it's looking like the SPX will finish the month higher once again here, and make it 7 months in a row that it has finished the month in the green. Historically when such occurence has happened, the next 6 months has seen the SPX higher 13 out of 14 times, with a pretty healthy +7.9% average return. Feels like this all sound like a broken record (or at least has for the past 16 months now), but looks like absent any totally out of left field surprises (black swan events) would signal continued strength from here.
