Morning Lineup - 1/31/21 - Only One More Day Mon, Jan 31, 2022 US equity futures are trading down towards their lows of the morning after trading higher most of the night. A key concern for the market continues to be - you guessed it - the Fed, and comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggesting the possibility of a 50 basis points (bps) hike has some investors on edge. A read of his comments, though, shows that he only said 'every option is in the table for every meeting', and then went on to say that his views will follow incoming data rather than committing to some pre-set plan. With more than six weeks between now and the March meeting, there's probably going to be a lot more headlines like this as investors look to decipher and dissect every comment from every Fed official for signs of where they're leaning. The economic calendar is on the light side today with Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed the only reports on the calendar. The Chicago report is forecast to show slower growth than December while the Dallas read on manufacturing activity is expected to come in right around December's levels. Earnings data is also on the light side today, but that won't last as the rest of the week will be one of the busiest of the earnings season. After the month we've had, there isn't much positive to say about the equity market so far in 2022. One silver lining could be seasonality. The gauges below taken from today's Morning Lineup show that the upcoming one and three-month periods for the S&P 500 are among the best one and three-month periods of the year. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500's median performance from the close on 1/31 out through the next month has been a gain of 3.94% while the forward three-month return has been a gain of 5.68%. Those median performance numbers are good enough to rank in the 98th and 85th percentile, respectively, relative to all other one and three months periods of the year. Seasonal trends are only one part of the puzzle when it comes to market returns and they can easily be outweighed by other factors, but at least the market has the calendar working in its favor.
The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading today on this final trading day of January! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/sh1omp/131_mondays_premarket_stock_movers_news/
I know a lot of people wanted to short last week, the high VIX got to them. But last week just went sideways, with all the down move occurring on Monday. Today ARK funds are teasing 8% gains. Growth stocks getting a relief rally. I think you got to be picky with what you do with the ARK funds though. If SPX closes above 4433 (currently 4483) then it will end the month above the 10-month ma, a sign to stay long in the market.
Yeah nice bounce for ARK names today Comes after Cramer recommend betting against ARKK last week too https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/27/jim-cramer-discusses-the-tuttle-capital-short-innovation-etf.html
J.P. Morgan' s Kolanovic says we're in a bear market, so buy the dip [I think this headline is misleading; he seems to say that individual stocks are in a bear market. See end for some interesting technical stuff] It isn't just a stock market correction, it's a bear market, but fears of the Fed are overdone and investors still have opportunities to buy in, according to J.P. Morgan. Strategist Marko Kolanovic, who has recommended buying the dip through at previous pandemic-era selloffs, says without a recession in sight, stocks - especially small-caps (IWM) and cyclicals (XLI) (XLE) (XLF) (XLB) (XLY) - offer buying opportunities. "Stocks are in bear market territory and erased their post-pandemic re-rating, small cap valuations are at 20Y lows, and investor sentiment is bearish," Kolanovic wrote in a note. "Many market metrics such as recent performance of high vs. low beta stocks and valuations of small caps are already fully pricing in a recession - something we do not see materializing." "On the valuation side, S&P 500 post-pandemic re-rating has almost been completely erased with PE now only 0.5x higher vs. pre-pandemic level when rates were more restrictive and fundamentals were less supportive," he said. "Even more extreme, small caps have seen their valuation compress to levels last seen ~20 years ago." Last week Kolanovic said the bearishness in the market was overdone. "While jitters around a Fed hiking cycle are understandable, this has been magnified by technical factors that can change quickly - i.e., we could see a reversal of systematic outflows, pickup in buyback activity as we exit blackout windows, and magnification of flows by weak liquidity and short-gamma hedgers," he added. As long as the "SPX remains below ~4600, gamma is negative with dealers buying on strength and selling on weakness. This would amplify market moves, especially in the current low market liquidity/depth environment."
Today is end of the month and tomorrow is beginning of a new month, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the positive momentum to continue tomorrow with some rebalancing and buying activities for those beaten down stocks such as the ARK name stocks. Jobs report is on Friday but I guess the key is the wage numbers rather than how many jobs we have added, the market probably prefer to see weaker wage growth to indicate inflation might be slowing in the coming months.
forgot to post this earlier in the day today, but here are the notables on the ER front for next month (february) for those looking 'round for that:
TQQQ up almost 10% today, but MACD is still negative (0,7). Let's see what happens tomorrow. Guns are loaded, and I'm ready to shoot sharp with some more TQQQ $$$ soon.
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Tuesday to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and the first trading day of February and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are just under 3 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Tuesday, February the 1st, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 2/1/22 - TGIF Tue, Feb 1, 2022 The last two trading days of the month helped to soften the blow, but a lot of people are probably happy to turn the page on January and start a new month. Futures are mixed to kick off the month with the S&P 500 and Dow futures modestly lower while the Nasdaq is slightly higher. Major economic reports today will include the ISM Manufacturing report, Construction Spending, and JOLTS which will all be released at 10 AM. In the case of all three reports, this morning's prints are expected to show some deceleration relative to last month's readings. We've already seen a decent number of earnings reports this morning with UPS trading up sharply after reporting an earnings triple play, but this afternoon will be even busier with Alphabet (GOOGL) headlining. Other notables will include General Motors (GM), Starbucks (SBUX), PayPal (PYPL), and AMD. The Nasdaq was looking at a loss of more than 10% heading into the final trading day of January, but Monday's 3%+ rally moderated the decline to a still steep 8.98%. With a rally of more than 6% in the month's last two trading days, January was only the sixth month in the Nasdaq's history where the index rallied more than 5% in the final two trading days of the month. Before January, the last occurrence was more than twenty years ago in May 2000. As shown in the table and chart below, back around the peak of the dot-com bubble there were actually three different occurrences in the span of less than a year, and before that, you had to go back to October 1987. The only other occurrence was in March 1980.
Kung Hei Fat Choy, let’s hope everyone here will make some money in Year of the Tiger Market looking calmer in the new month, definitely not as exciting after a volatile month
Market moving higher in the final hours here Have we seen the worst for the market especially for those hyper growth/ARK name stocks? I guess we will find out soon
Earnings reactions looking positive for GOOGL and AMD right now, we might have another decent day for the market tomorrow especially for tech
The White House is trying to prepare Americans for a 'strange' jobs report (yahoo.com) Sounds like they are preparing people to see a rather weak report on Friday, the market might actually like the report if the headline number is weak and wage growth is slowing down since it would mean less inflationary pressure
Top of the morning Stockaholics! Happy Groundhogs Day to all of you! And welcome to the new trading day and a frrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresh start! Here is a quick check on those futures as we are about 3 and 1/2 hours from the cash market open. GLTA on this Wednesday, February the 2nd, 2022.
Morning Lineup - 2/2/22 - Digging Out Wed, Feb 2, 2022 Everyone knows that stock splits are completely meaningless when it comes to a company's fundamentals, but yet companies continue to split their stocks anyway, and more often than not, the price of a stock gets at least a short-term boost from the announcement. The latest example was last night when Alphabet (GOOGL) said they would split the stock on a 20-1 basis. So rather than trading for around $3,000 per share, GOOGL will trade for around $150 per share post-split. Again, the split means nothing in terms of GOOGL's fundamentals, but it does make the stock more palatable for investors looking to add a position. In a world where most brokerage firms now offer fractional shares, a company's share price should be even less of a factor, but from the psychological perspective of an individual investor, it feels better to own a few shares of a company's stock rather than a fraction of one share of a company's stock. GOOGL's split wasn't the only news for the stock last night. The company also reported a very large earnings beat, and while the stock split is no doubt a contributing factor behind today's move, the earnings results are the primary driver of today's move. GOOGL's earnings results are helping to push futures in the green this morning as the Nasdaq is indicated to open up by more than 1%. S&P 500 futures are also firmly higher, while the Dow, where GOOGL is not represented (at least for now) is only looking at fractional gains. Besides GOOGL. strong results from AMD are also contributing to the positive tone in tech, but that strength has been offset from weak results from PayPal (PYPL) and Starbucks (SBUX). In economic news, the only report of the day is ADP Private Payrolls, and it was a big dud. While economists were forecasting an increase of nearly 200K jobs in January, the actual reading was a decline of 301K as the Omicron wave that spread across the country caused major - although likely temporary- disruptions to the economy. US stocks have seen some big moves over the last five trading days as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied close to 6%. Behind QQQ, the S&P 100 (OEF) is also up over 5%. At the other end of the spectrum, the three weakest indices are all connected to small caps. In other words, the latest bounce has been driven completely by mega-caps. Even after the market has started to dig itself out of the January hole, every major index ETF remains below its 50-day moving average (DMA) and nearly half are still oversold, including the Nasdaq 100. Turning back to GOOGL, the stock is currently indicated to open up by a little over 10% this morning which would be the 9th time in its history that the stock gapped up over 10% in reaction to earnings with the last occurrence all the way back in October 2015. In the prior eight periods where GOOGL gapped up over 10% in reaction to earnings, the stock continued higher during the trading day five out of eight times for a median gain of 0.19%.
Sorry, running a little late this AM hence a bit late to post this in here. The pre-market thread is now up on Reddit for anyone looking for a quick read before today's cash market open. GL to y'all's trading today on this Groundhog Day! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarke...wednesdays_premarket_stock_movers_news_happy/
whelp, just a little quick full disclosure for y'all's in here this AM, i'm back in le short side on spuzzy. ended up pulling the trigger just a little before ADP hit at 4575 entry which was around the ONH. yesterday was maybe a little premature on that hunch for a reversal off of this ded cat (which i still fully stand by my sentiments from before). thinking this bounce we've had off of the correction low thus far has been very much of a dead cat variety where it's "guilty until proven innocent" if you will for me at least. thus i really believe the lows are not in yet on this corrective move. we'll see how it plays out ofc and i'm putting in relatively tight stops in so i can lock some of this profit here, as admittedly this was about the area i was looking to get short the other week when we smashed down to those corrections lows, which yes i missed pretty much all of that move.. i just don't see how this market can actually move back up and possibly test record highs again when those gooberheads over there at the FEDs are doing what they're doin' this year... UNLESS of course those fvcknuts reverse course and pronto, then and only then would i feel like my mantra for this year (which is STFR -- "sell the friggen rip") goes back to the old BTFD again. but think until then, i will remain pretty bearish the market for the short to medium term at least. still thinking a -20% move off the ATH is not out of the cards this year. but we'll see haha. gl to y'all's today and rest of this week!!
