Does this remind anybody of the tech bubble of 2000?

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by StockJock-e, Jan 17, 2021.

  1. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    #1 StockJock-e, Jan 17, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2021
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Looks like it was taken down :eek:

    It was a guy telling everybody that you should buy stocks that go up, then sell them when they stop going up.

    he then showed some crazy returns like +2000% from following his simple strategy.
     
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  3. rg7803

    rg7803 Well-Known Member

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    Crap .... I should have found that strategy years ago!
    Allways learning I gues.
     
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  4. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Thats all well and good but im going to stick to my strategy of buying stocks that go down. I know its going to pay handsomely, one of these days.
     
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  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I don't know if I will ever get used to the sheer volume of people declaring themselves the messiah but there is something I understand less. That is, the legions of people who follow these liars.

    I won't pollute this thread with anecdotes but we all know someone who takes an interest in investing and is reporting miracle returns after a few days and wants to explain to you how amazing they are.

    After studying this, I've come to the conclusion it is easier to make money in the market these days than it was 10 years ago. Retail investors are the ATMs of the investing world.
     
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  6. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Im glad to be able to help you understand the markets!
     
  7. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    :rofl:
     
  9. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    This got really popular, I saw it making the rounds on financial twitter.

    We are in the early to mid stages of the 2000 tech bubble. The point where nothing can possibly go wrong and this is the new norm.
     
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  10. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    So what you are saying is...


    But what you really mean is...


    Got it. :D;)
     
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  11. Rustic1

    Rustic1 Well-Known Member

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    I went all cash end of 2020. Missed a bit of gains but just hanging out for now other than a few micro plays.
     
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  12. turtle957

    turtle957 Member

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    Yeah it seems like everybody is throwing money around and raking in major gains but what's going to burst the bubble? I know it's always obvious in hindsight...You'd think maybe bad earnings could do it but so far it doesn't seem like there have been any catastrophic results that could pull everyone down. Vaccinations are proceeding slowly but they are proceeding at least. Will it probably just be as "simple" as eventually prices get too divorced from earnings and the smart money makes the savvy plays that reset everything to where it should be? Unlike the .com bubble it seems like fundamentals are at least decent so surely it won't be AS bad of a reset, right? Any thoughts?
     
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  13. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    2000 was pure froth and excitement about what the future holds.

    2020 does have some good things going for it and plenty of cheap money to go around. Its going to be fascinating in hind-sight when we do a "how come I didnt see that?!?!"
     
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  14. Michael Banker

    Michael Banker New Member

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    This is my first post. really do not know how to use this site. Anyway I am 51 and have seen a couple of major crashes. If you look at how much our country is in debt and the personal debt of all people it is pretty crazy. I'm feeling like there is no way that you can loose in the market now. No way! which means it is about to crash. It will not happen until I invest though so you all are good for now. LOL.
     
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  15. turtle957

    turtle957 Member

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    Been thinking about this thread a lot lately. In fact, I actually stumbled upon Hot Stock Market back in the day because in ~2013 I was going through threads from like 2007/08 from amidst the crash and trying to analyze them retroactively to see what people were thinking and how aware they were of the danger. Been lurking ever since! lol

    Anyway, I'm by no means an expert but my primitive understanding of the 1929 Stock Market Crash has some parallels to today and probably every bubble to some degree. For example:
    • Unhindered optimism - everybody took it for granted the markets would keep going up (see TikTok video linked above)
    • Tons of investing done via margin (margin debt recently hit an all-time high)
    • Generally lots of interest from retail traders but minimal knowledge of what they're actually buying (see below per Google Trends)
    upload_2021-2-8_22-12-22.png



    upload_2021-2-8_22-13-16.png



    upload_2021-2-8_22-13-47.png

    So there's definitely some of the characteristic bubble/pre-crash factors going on here...in 1929 margin calls played a huge role in accelerating The Crash. Since the GME/AMC situation probably added a significant portion of the margin we're seeing it seems reasonable to think a pullback could be coming in the not-too-distant future as all these elements swirl together into a bit of a storm. But who knows...it could also sort itself out and result in just a few little hiccups in the markets that ultimately don't amount to much. We'll see!
     
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  16. bearmarketcrash

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    Nice synopsis there @turtle957 with the comparisons from then and now. Very interesting and I tend to agree with a lot of it actually. Good stuff. Thanks a bunch for taking the time share that in here. Oh and that’s awesome that you’ve been around this community since dating back to the GFC. Very cool!
     
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  17. bearmarketcrash

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    I wrote this somewhere today, but this market today is definitely feeling like a “nothing-can-possibly-go-wrong” kinda market which admittedly scares the bejesus outta me. Really feels to me like the complacency is at an ATH (despite what the VIX is currently saying), and that the market will just keep on rallying to infinity and beyond forever. Cause the CBs (FED, et al) has got the markets back no matter what. And if the market/economy suffers even the slightest setback, they will just get the brrrrrrrr printing machines in overdrive. This kind of mentality is really teetering on dangerous grounds imho. But alas, this has admittedly been pretty much the norm since the post-GFC lows. It’s like close your eyes and just BTFD every time no matter what. It works until it doesn’t. Sadly there will be some people who will get absolutely crushed yet again once this market is truly ready to turn (which I actually don’t think is as far off as we all might want to believe). Cause unfortunately history always seems to somehow repeat itself. And people never seem to learn from them. But it’s really just the normal process of the market and always has been. We may not be there just yet. But I do feel like this bull is aging really quick now. That inevitable rug pull is going to catch some poor souls by surprise. It will be a pretty spectacular sight to see though. If we thought 2008/09 was crazy, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet! :cool2:
     
    #17 bearmarketcrash, Feb 9, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2021
  18. turtle957

    turtle957 Member

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    Yeah and with such complacency often comes a willingness to be riskier, more speculative. I think we're definitely seeing that with the "YOLO" culture of "investing" lately as well as with those TikTokers just pouring money in.

    As I said previously in the thread, though, there are at least some solid fundamentals out there unlike in 2000 for example lol. So hopefully those can serve as a good anchor point should we see a downturn. And as for the margin stuff I think in 1929 you could get like 90% margin to invest with (WHICH IS INSANE) so when the market started turning and all those margin calls came in people just threw their hands up and collectively had to let go of their stocks all at once to cover their margin calls which sent confidence into a tailspin. I've been trying to find stats on what % of stocks back then were owned by institutions vs. retail investors because I think that'd be helpful context but haven't found anything. I always got the impression that retail investors made up a much greater share of the market back then than they do today which in this scenario was definitely not good...
     
  19. turtle957

    turtle957 Member

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    Thanks yeah this community is great - lots of good nuggets and cool people!!!
     

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