Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

Elephant on stilts

Discussion in 'The Cocktail Lounge' started by enickma, Nov 17, 2017.

  1. enickma

    enickma New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2017
    Messages:
    14
    Likes Received:
    12
    Posting this in the lounge rather than a market forum for high-level casual discussion with a glass of scotch and cynicism. Who else thinks US stocks are about to take a narcoleptic faceplant of a correction? I've been temporarily shifting certain assets away from US stocks and funds derived from them to government bonds in anticipation that something wicked this way comes. This article does a decent job of summing up part of it:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...-are-moving-in-opposite-directions-2017-10-18

    Beyond that I can't tell you how many times I've heard over the past few months something to the effect of, "It's coming. Not sure exactly when, but US stocks are over-valued". I contrast that with the still steady drum beat of "fundamentals are good to keep this bull market driving for the foreseeable future!" It really feels to me like I'm looking at an environment of maximum optimism among true believers and red flag waiving by contrarians. As far as I can tell, history tends to favor the latter in these kinds of cases.

    Agree, disagree? Are we about to see a major correction, or do you think we have gas left in this tank?
     
    #1 enickma, Nov 17, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2017
  2. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2016
    Messages:
    1,279
    Likes Received:
    1,198
    My $2-box by 3-box-reversal point & figure for SPY shows a projection of about $400 which would be SPX 4000. I don't expect it will go straight up from here; there will probably be some retracements along the way obviously, but a bear market or even a major correction is unlikely imo until SPX 4000 is reached and a distribution trading range develops.

    upload_2017-11-18_17-25-9.png
     
  3. Timbo

    Timbo Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2017
    Messages:
    396
    Likes Received:
    137
    We will definitely go higher in 2018, short of a nuclear war.
     
  4. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2016
    Messages:
    1,279
    Likes Received:
    1,198
    Time to update the SPY projection of $404 (average of 392 and 416) made back in Nov 2017 (chart above).

    Changing the box size from $2 to $3 (to account for the higher price level) and assuming we retrace back to about $267 the new re-accumulation count gives a bullish projection to $447.

    $3-box by 3-box-reversal Point & Figure:
    upload_2019-3-8_0-21-22.png
     
    #4 Onepoint272, Mar 8, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2019

Share This Page