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ESMac's Portfolio

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by ESMac_Magnaye, Oct 10, 2019.

  1. ESMac_Magnaye

    ESMac_Magnaye New Member

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    Hello All,
    I am ESMac and here to share with you my portfolio adventures starting September 2019 onwards. I am your typical hard-working employee that had saved a lot of money which is then allocated to two portfolios - retirement type and the capital gains/aggressive type. My goal is to create my holdings funded by my own compounded gains over time. It is a silly dream but I love the idea of how can one make a small amount of money to an insane amount though the virtue of temperance.​

    Facts about this portfolio & this post
    1. The portfolio that I will post here is my capital gains/aggressive portfolio which is about 20% of my net worth. I will not post here my other portfolio - retirement type.
    2. My capital gains portfolio will be US Stocks, Options, ETFs (very short term bonds/treasuries, sector weighted, or leveraged). I might get into other countries through ADR only if the US Dollar Index is on the direction of weakness from a big run-up.
    3. No further deposits will be made on this portfolio.
    4. The start date of the portfolio will be September 2019.
    5. I will not be posting the value amount of the portfolio but I will post percentage-wise.
    6. After a certain transaction (buy, sell, short, close) I will post it on this thread accordingly live.
    7. I will post here a value overtime assuming a $10,000 value was invested as per track record.
    8. I will post quarterly net liquidation value starting Sep 2019 - Dec 2019 - Mar 2020 and onwards.
    9. I will not edit the post. If my post is gibberish then thy will be done.
    10. My strategy is long-term position holding to short position
    Certain Rules That I Follow For This Portfolio:
    1. With the current size of my money - I am only allowed to own one position in my portfolio. If I reach $80million - $100million in size then further evaluation is needed if a concentrated position is viable. I am not allowed to own more than 5% of the outstanding stock of a public company to avoid paperwork.
    2. I am only allowed 3 transactions (opening + closing of a position) within 2 years (2019-2021, 2021-2023 ... etc).
    3. I am not allowed to use my margin privilege. This means all my purchases are treated as cash purchase: leverage of portfolio = 1x.
    4. My basis for opening a position is both on technical and fundamental factors. For technical factors, it will mostly be the relationship of the stock with the index; as much as possible we want the underlying stock to follow the trend of the general index. For fundamental factors, we focus more on the scoring of a possibility of accounting manipulation, the possibility of bankruptcy, the qualitative factor of the business, and the cash flow of the business.
    5. I am not allowed to do social media investing/trading. I am not here to promote my firm nor have any plans to handle other people's money. My focus is to make my small capital to multi-millions through my wits and prove that patience and temperance weigh more than intelligence.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. ESMac_Magnaye

    ESMac_Magnaye New Member

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    Portfolio as of Oct 10, 2019
    TQQQ (Proshares UltraProQQQ) = 95.20% ; cost basis = $66.47 / share
    CASH-(USD) = 4.80%

    Current Performance (MOM)
    09/01 - 10/10 = -8.45%

    Rationale: Betting that the general market will turn into uptrend motion just like 2016-2017 between years 2019-2022
     

    Attached Files:

  3. ESMac_Magnaye

    ESMac_Magnaye New Member

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    Side Note: Thinking between XLK vs TQQQ ; TQQQ much rewarding if the scenario is uptrend
    Again please note this portfolio is an aggressive portfolio (please see post# 1)
     
  4. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
    Staff Member

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    Good luck on your goals, looking forward to following along!
     
    ESMac_Magnaye likes this.
  5. ESMac_Magnaye

    ESMac_Magnaye New Member

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    Monthly Portfolio Update - October 31, 2019
    upload_2019-11-1_9-23-2.png
    upload_2019-11-1_9-26-28.png

    upload_2019-11-1_9-24-40.png

    ---------------
    upload_2019-11-1_9-27-2.png

    upload_2019-11-1_9-28-3.png
     
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  6. ESMac_Magnaye

    ESMac_Magnaye New Member

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    Hey People,

    10/09/2020 - Selling All TQQQ by market closing (lets see if it will maintain $135/share) and transfering to my new test strategy portflio
    Net % Gain ~= +99%

    Why would I scrap this strategy and transfer/make a new strategy ?
    1. After almost 1 year, I am back - although the test portfolio yield +100% this does not make me happy knowing the fact that there -50% drawdown by March 2020. If this is a scenario like 2008 it would take many years before breaking even. I say that I'll stick with non-leverage plain vanilla stocks as holdings or just SPY - these leveraged ETF increases gains AND lossess but not risk.
    2. TQQQ IS NOT FOR LONG TERM HOLDINGS - this is stated on the prospectus clear and bright. There might be better strategy for leveraged index ETF's (example UPRO-TMF : 50%-50% Combo at the other boggle folks) but there are other risk (please see #3).
    3. There is a risk of regulation - what if the US Government added stock transaction tax then everything will be f*cked as these leveraged ETF relies on daily rebalancing to make it work. This is the reason why the fine print says "leveraged etf instruments are not suitable for long term holdings"
    4. I wanna do a challenge for myself - $1k to $1mil without leverage, options, and derivatives (just pure stock picking) and holding for months. There is much less utility in holding leveraged stocks knowing that drawdowns are just there in the back closet
     
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  7. ESMac_Magnaye

    ESMac_Magnaye New Member

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    Next Challenge
    $1k to ? challenge
    -US Stocks only, long positions only
    -Max Buy/Sell Transactions per year = 10 only
    -No leverage (any kind), no derivatives (any kind) to be used

    Intro:
    • This is more difficult as this strategy will be concentrated on one stock = more risk, higher risk of unseen fraud (but frauds such as wirecard,enron,luckin only appears when the tide is out - watchout for the naked ones selling clothes)
    • This strategy is risky because it is an all-in strategy as I do not like having many transactions (or doing Kelly Stuff)
    • Another problem with this is stocks are generally inclined to the index as well - so if the index will go down so does this strategy unless I do not choose to play
    • Another risk of course is the compoundability lets say I made $1k to $1500 then I have to plug the whole $1500 again to make it grow
    What I do:
    • I incorporated my own 'bot/spreadsheet' from many key sources that gives me signal which stock to buy and when to sell (no need to make a programmable bot since my transactions are little so I can DIY)
    • I tried doing purely technical analysis on the spreadsheet, I'm not good at it so I ditched 100% technical analysis (I suck at trading) and had done a bit more of outside analysis
    • The bot is more of statistical analysis rather than technical analysis as I have set it to read fundamental of companies (marketcap, earnings growth, qualitative stuff) , technicals (mostly moving averages of different timeframes), macro-economic stuff
    ---------------------------------------------
    Edit : I removed what I plan to buy, still thinking if I should push through even this is $1k as I still need more backtesting
     
    #7 ESMac_Magnaye, Oct 9, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2020

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