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Everyone needs grumpy old guy advice, at some point in their lives

Discussion in 'The Cocktail Lounge' started by TomB16, Apr 27, 2020.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I thought I'd mention, I understand nobody is going to change their portfolio management approach based on my advice. As most of you are aware, I encourage investing and discourage trading.

    The reason I give such advice is not for the event of the moment. It's because 10 years from nowt, a significant ratio of people who have received this sort of advice will consider their returns for the last decade and realize they have squandered 33% of their earning years (average 30 year career) with low/no returns when they could have been making market returns all these years.

    When someone asks me if a face tattoo is a good idea I tell them "no", understanding full well I'm looking at someone who is about to get a face tattoo and I am about to get considerable free amusement.
     
    The Brontide likes this.
  2. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Remember the old days when a bond portfolio was a thing? ;)
     
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  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Being old, I was there and didn't get pulled into that fad.

    I recall when mutual funds were the thing to have, in the late 80s. I didn't go for that, either.

    Early 2000's, it was ETFs. Gotta have 'em!

    These days, it's index investing. It's going up and always will!

    I don't own any index instruments, although I have recently held a reverse S&P ETF.

    One thing that hasn't changed for centuries is that a good business makes money. When is the last time a discussion broke out about how much a company can generate in earnings? For some reason, Tesla bears used to talk about that all the time and then they would buy growth stocks with no ability to generate anywhere close to enough income to make their valuations sane. Even P/E 15 for a stable company is ridiculous.

    Investing is about partnering with an organization with a capability of generating money by doing business. Trading is about being pretty sure a number is going to up and placing a bet on that gut feeling or otherwise holistic technique.
     
  4. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    I look at your posts. Either I agree, or not. It's still an influence. Maybe I do something based on what you wrote. Either I buy or don't buy. Maybe I sell something just because you mentioned it and I did a little more homework. But my portfolio changed, because of you.

    You have more influence than you give yourself credit for. Just think of how many people read what you wrote, and did something.




    I hold funds. For me, it's admitting that there are people running these funds that should know more than me. While I like picking my own stocks, and I haven't lost my shorts.....That only means that I got lucky. Over time, it's neat to compare how the funds are doing compared to what I am doing. I hold some of the same.stocks as the funds. I hold a few I don't see in the funds. The funds hold more stocks than I can hold.

    I buy bond funds, instead of buying bonds. Good or bad, I don't know. Only time will tell. But it's a small part of the portfolio. I haven't lost anything on them yet. And it's returned more than the pile of small bills, gold coins, and handgun under my pillow.
     
  5. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    Yes I do note P/E for my stock purchases.

    Just checked the ratio for Tesla.

    Now I love Tesla for multiple reasons.

    The price to current earnings ratio currently stands, P/E: 756.03

    Now I don't know about you, but paying 756 times actual earnings is a bit steep for my blood.

    edit to add disclosure: I do own and continue to pick up a bit of Tesla here and there on the bigger dips, as I do believe in the bigger picture.
     
    #5 The Brontide, Aug 9, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2020
  6. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    Today's world is not the stock market of days gone by. Pricing is dictated by supply and demand. If enough people want the stock, and are willing to pay more, then the price goes up. Company stock price is now a product, exclusive of what the company actually does. I don't like it either. Crazy what people will pay for a company stock, compared to PE. What's the value on a cruise ship anchored with no passengers? Look at Hertz. 1 year ago, nobody would buy stock in bankruptcy. Everything has changed, literally in this current year. What was Tesla a year ago?
     
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  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Apparently I'm OK with it because I own enough Tesla to give Jim Chanos a stroke.
     
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  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Low 200s.

    The sub 200 dip was last May.
     
  9. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    @$1,500 per share, is Tesla selling 6 times as many cars?
     
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    It was never about cars.
     
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  11. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    Hey, grumpy old man.

    A few (snicker) years ago when I would talk about investing with my grandmother, who which by the way, was astute in the subject well beyond most, gave me some advice which I will confess I did not heed.

    I was heavily invested in the Seligman funds back in the day right before they closed that particular fund for new investors. Was making a good 20 to 30 percent regularly. My grandmother told me that anytime you are making more than 9% or invest in something that provided a PE of over 6, get out fast.

    That was then, this is now.
     
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  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Your Grandmother sounds hot.
     
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  13. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    She was an absolutely amazing person. There isn't enough room in any thread to convey the things she has done, places she has visited, or organizations she was involved in. Especially for the time.A very strong and progressive person. I miss her. She was a nurse during the war, and my grandfather was an infantryman in Berlin as it ended. They were rock solid.
     
    #13 The Brontide, Aug 9, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2020
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  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Good for you guys who can average 30% per year. :thumbsup:

    You can start with $10,000. Invest for 20 years and then retire with $2M.

    For those of you who can double your money each year, which many can, you will have $10B in 20 years.

    My hat is off to those of you who can do it.

    In the mean time, I'm going to be happy down around 10% average return.
     
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  15. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    with some of the stocks today, that's low

    Your grandmother would snort with derision at Robin Hood traders.
     
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  16. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    As one of those traders, yes, she would have cuffed me upside the back of my head several times.
     
  17. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    My target has always been 10%. It is a fair and admirable target return for everyone. I know I have never nor ever will double any two years in a row. Not reasonable. But my retirement projections always base of 10%. Just have been lucky and fortunate to average a little better, short of this year, which has been embarrassing.
     
  18. A55

    A55 Well-Known Member

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    Then there's this guy:




    I had shorts during the Reagan Administration which were embarrassing.

    Screenshot_2020-08-09-22-28-52_kindlephoto-669556451.png Screenshot_2020-08-09-06-27-51.png
     
  19. Bridget Mallory

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    Your advice makes sense and I think I might go for it
     

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