F - Ford Motor Company

Ford Truck Sales – No Slowdown Here

Ford just released its monthly auto sales numbers for August, and the results came in better than expected at +4.1% versus expectations for a decline of 0.8%. As we do each month, our focus in this report is truck sales, and more specifically, F-series pickup trucks. Trucks are often purchased by small businesses and contractors, so they provide a good read on the health of the small business sector, and similar to the prevailing narrative, Ford’s numbers continue to suggest a solid US economy.

For the month of August alone, total sales of F-Series trucks totaled 81,839, which is up over 6% compared to the same month last year and is the highest monthly sales total for August since 2005 and the third best August going all the way back to 1996.



With the strong August results, total YTD sales of Ford F-Series trucks now stands at 603,926. Since 1996, the only two years that saw a stronger YTD total through August were 2005 (625K) and 2000 (612K). Ford’s stock may not be doing much, but the company’s trucks are selling like hotcakes!

 

Ford Truck Sales: Blame the Weather. Really!

Ford just released sales figures for September and the results weren’t particularly good. While analysts were already expecting sales to decline by 9%, the actual decline was even larger at -11%. Whenever you start to see double-digit declines, it’s not a particularly encouraging sign. As we do each month, our focus in this report is truck sales, and more specifically, F-series pickup trucks. Trucks are often purchased by small businesses and contractors, so they provide a good read on the health of the small business sector, and similar to the prevailing narrative, Ford’s numbers continue to suggest a solid US economy.

In this case, truck sales weren’t as bad for Ford as the headline figures. As shown in the chart below, F-series truck sales fell from 82.3K in 2017 down to 75.1K for a decline of nearly 9%. That’s still a relatively large decline, but keep in mind there are two caveats to this total. First, September 2018 (25) had one less selling day than September 2017 (26). The second factor to keep in mind is weather. Not only was this year’s September total negatively impacted by Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas, but September’s 2017’s total was artificially boosted by Hurricane Harvey, which hit the Houston area in August. You can see it in the chart below where 2017’s September total saw an enormous boost, while this year total sales declined.



On a YTD basis, total sales look more in line with the trend of the last several years. On a YTD basis sales increased by just over 3% from 658.6K up to 679.0K. At this rate, 2018 is on pace to be the strongest year for truck sales since 2005 and the fourth best year since 1996.

 

Ford Truck Sales Slowing
Nov 5, 2018

Many economic data points have been tapping the brakes recently indicating slower economic activity. One data point that we like to look at is Ford truck sales. Trucks are typically purchased by small businesses and contractors, so they provide a good read on the health of the small business sector. Based on these sales totals for October, small businesses took a little bit of a step back. Last month, sales of Ford F-series trucks totaled 70,438, which was down over 7% from last October’s total of 75,974. Although one caveat to this decline is that in 2017 sales totals were boosted by repurchases of vehicles flooded in the hurricanes making for a tough y/y comparison. Outside of 2017, this October’s sales were the highest since 2004 which also lends some credence to that argument even if this year did have an extra day of selling compared to last October (26 vs. 25).


On a YTD basis, sales of F-Series trucks have totaled 749.5K, which is still up slightly from last year’s pace and is the strongest YTD reading through the first ten months of the year since 2004.

 

Ford Truck Sales Slow
Dec 3, 2018

Sales of F-Series trucks from Ford slowed slightly in the month of November relative to the same month last year, even as both months had the same number of industry selling days (25). Total sales came in at 72,108 compared to 72,769 last year. For the last three years now, November F-Series sales have been pretty much stuck at the 72K level. Looking back over time, though, the last three Novembers have been the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best Novembers for sales going all the way back to 1996. Sales of pickup trucks (specifically at Ford) are often a sign of strength or weakness in the small business and construction sectors, so it’s good to watch these readings for signs of strength of weakness.



With 11 months in the books, total sales of F-Series trucks by Ford now stands at 822K, which is a 1.8% increase from the first 11-months of 2017. The only two years where sales were stronger through the end of November were 2004 (844K) and 2001 (827K). Depending on how things shake out in December, this year will likely go down as one of the top three years for Ford F-Series truck sales on record.



Finally, the chart below shows seasonally adjusted monthly F-Series truck sales by Ford. Similar to overall auto sales in the US, sales appear to have plateaued for the time being. They aren’t quite rolling over, but they certainly aren’t rising either.