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F - Ford Motor Company

Discussion in 'Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX' started by bigbear0083, Mar 31, 2016.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I don't trade but seriously considered shorting Ford in mid 2017. I didn't have the stomach for it.

    Now they look like they can land on their feet and remain a medium size player. At least, for a while.

    The F-150 looks like it will continue to sell well for a couple of years. I have little faith in Tesla's truck but that is based on nothing but judgmentalism and ignorance. Meanwhile, the eF-150 could be a winner in 2021 when it is scheduled for release. I doubt the electric truck will have much impact, though. They won't be able to produce many.

    Meanwhile, Achates Power has come a long way with their opposed piston diesel. They are said to be working with a major US automaker. I think it's 80% chance of GM, 20% chance of Ford. That engine will probably buy a manufacturer quite a bit of time to electrify their fleet.
     
  2. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't buy a new diesel.
    Every time you fill up, you also have to buy and add DPF. They are also programmed not to run if you don't add the DPF.
    Remove the DPF filter, and can result in fines ranging from $1,000 to $100,000 for an individual.
    Ridiculous.
     
  3. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Not all diesel engines require diesel exhaust fluid (DEF - urea). Only high output engines require this fluid. That's pretty much all consumer pickup trucks.

    DPF - diesel particulate filter, is a different thing.

    Opposed piston engines have many advantages. No valve train. Half speed piston travel for the same power level. 40% more power from the same fuel. Reduced emissions, particularly NOx... and on and on.

    Opposed piston engines are more exciting than Mazda's compression ignition gas engine. That is saying a lot.

    Opposed piston diesel will cut emissions more quickly than Ford will be able to ramp their EV program.

    The opposed piston diesel is likely to gain traction in the commercial space before the consumer space. The average joe isn't a big fan of change.



    A Ford Transit EV has the potential to be an industry beater. Service and delivery vans are begging to be electrified.



    Has anyone else noticed Mazda is literally only coming out with a hybrid electric vehicle just now and yet they have lead the industry on emissions for as long as I can remember? Hyundai appeared to lead for a while but it was discovered they were cheating so it was always Mazda. Mazda pioneered a ton of technology including the Miller cycle engine, Atkinson cycle, compression ignition gasoline, etc.
     
    #343 TomB16, Sep 10, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
  4. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    Exactly....no thanks
     
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I hope you understand I'm not trying to sell you a truck on commission? :D

    Opposed piston engines are unlikely to require urea, although that's not a deal killer for the target market which is not you (as far as I know).
     
  6. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    :D
    I'll buy a Nissan or Toyota. 1/2 price of what US truck's cost.
    I can get Nissan for around $23k, and Toyota for around $25k.
    And the run on gasoline...no additives...lol
     
  7. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    For what it's worth, the Achates Power demo vehicle is a Ford F-150. I wonder if that tells us anything.

    There is also a gasoline variant that also implements compression ignition. 2 stroke. No valve train.

    It sounds like they won't be selling an opposed piston engine to OldFart, any time soon.


    Here is the big picture.

    As climate problems increase and governments panic, there will be a huge push toward electrification. That isn't going to happen quickly enough. With the opposed piston engine, CO2 and NOx emissions are radically reduced. In the case of NOx, a small fraction of any other engine. In the case of CO2, about 40%. All while improving fuel economy.

    Such a great gas/diesel engine could be a great bridge technology to electrification. Mazda's SkyActiveX is also a great platform. We are going to need something in the decade it's going to take to ramp up electrification.
     
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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  9. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    Bodacious, Onepoint272 and TomB16 like this.
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    You aren't supposed to know that climate change is a liberal conspiracy. Let's quickly change the subject. :oops:
     
    OldFart and Onepoint272 like this.
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Ford Truck Sales Slow
    Wed, Oct 2, 2019

    While Ford used to release vehicle sales updates on a monthly basis, that changed in 2018 when the company began to switch to a quarterly reporting period. Whenever companies make the decision to give less rather more performance data, it usually comes at a time when the numbers are getting worse rather than better. After all, have you ever heard of a company choosing to give less information when their business is booming? With that in mind, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that sales figures for Ford vehicles have been weakening. This morning, Ford released sales figures for the third quarter, and overall sales fell 5.6% relative to the third quarter of 2018 and are down 3.9% on a YTD basis relative to last year.

    On these pages, we tend to focus on sales of Ford F-Series trucks. The reason for this is that sales of pickup trucks are often a sign of strength or weakness in the small business and construction sectors as these types of businesses are the most common users of these vehicles. Similar to the overall sales figures from Ford, sales of F-Series trucks have also been weak which suggests a more sluggish environment for small businesses. In the third quarter, total sales came in at 214,176 which was a full 6% below the same quarter last year. That may not sound like much, but the last time there was this large of a decline in Q3 sales on a y/y basis was in 2008.

    [​IMG]

    Year to date, total sales of Ford F-Series trucks are down 2.4%, falling from 679K down to 662.6K. Here again, that may not sound like a whole lot, but it is only the second time since 2009 where the y/y sales pace was negative and this year's decline is the largest since 2009.

    [​IMG]
     
    OldFart, T0rm3nted and Onepoint272 like this.
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I do believe we are easing into a recession.
     
  13. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Ford and the UAW have reached a tentative agreement on the new contract.
     
    Onepoint272, OldFart and TomB16 like this.
  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Big Gap Down For Ford (F)
    Wed, Feb 5, 2020

    As Tesla's (TSLA) meteoric rise has been in the spotlight this week, another US automaker is moving in the opposite direction. Although it highlighted plans to attempt to breach into the electric vehicle market as the company's future, Ford (F) reported a disappointing quarter after the close yesterday. Revenues came in at $39.7 bln which was handily above estimates of $36.5 bln, but also down 5% compared to the prior year. Wholesale units sold for 2019 totaled just 5.386 million compared to 5.982 million in 2018 as market share fell from 6.3% to 6.0%. Additionally, EPS missed estimates by 5 cents as the company continues to try to cut costs and reiterated plans to close six European plants. Perhaps the biggest disappointment in last night's report was the guidance. The company is now forecasting full-year 2020 adjusted EBIT of $5.6 bln to $6.6 bln compared to analyst estimates of $7.37 bln. Given these results, the stock gapped down over 8% this morning. This would bring the stock to its lowest level since the end of October and would be the largest gap down the stock has experienced in reaction to earnings since at least 2001 as shown in the snapshot of our Earnings Explorer below.

    If it is any consolation, the fourth quarter has historically experienced the weakest stock price performance for Ford (F) in reaction to earnings. It is the only quarter's report where the stock has averaged a gap down at the open, and in terms of full-day reactions, F has been higher only 28% of the time following its Q4 report. As a result of today's losses, Ford's (F) already high dividend only lifted higher. Ford shares now yield well above 7% compared to ~6.5% as of yesterday's close. So, in addition to having the lowest share price in the index, F now also has one of the highest dividend yields in the S&P 500.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  15. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    ooof - so sad to see this happening to such a long time American car manufacturer. Pretty sure their credit will be rated junk and their corporate clause or whatever will basically not let them borrow anymore money and will ultimately file for bankruptcy.
     
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Ford is in as bad shape as Boeing but they are working against a culture that keeps them from success.

    Ford's technology, market presence, and manufacturing power are amazing but are no match for their bad corporate culture.

    I've always hoped that Alan Mulally would be the one to restore greatness at Ford. Ironically, Malally came from Boeing. Still, from the interviews I watched he seemed like the right man. I do believe he effected significant positive change at Ford during his tenure and changed the course from a brutally downward spiral.

    I never dreamed FCA would turn Chrysler around but they seem to be going in a good direction, despite current struggles. Hopefully, the same will happen at Ford.

    Turn-arounds are rare. I have only invested in one once. It didn't work out great but I didn't get slaughtered.

    I'm far more inclined to invest in GM. GM is an engineering company. They will engineer their way into the future, in some way. Ford is a top down company and it is not run by engineers.

    The problem with business people is they are too busy exclaiming that nothing is ever going to change to notice the world changing. It's a cycle of ignorance that has killed endless companies.

    I know this is straight up cultural politics but I would not buy a space company run by an MBA. Technology companies need to be run by people who are problem solvers and not by people who are power centers.
     
    #356 TomB16, Feb 5, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
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  17. rg7803

    rg7803 Active Member

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    Amazing line Tom, 100% true.
     
    Syynik likes this.
  18. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I don't know if I've shared this but the best info I can get on Achates Power is they are working with every major manufacturer on opposed piston engines. They will all end up licensing it.

    OP engines will extend the sales life of ICE engines. We need it desperately and it will be a major boost for all manufacturers.

    Personally, I think it will do the most good for FCA, then GM, and Ford the least.
     
  19. Syynik

    Syynik Active Member

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    Nailed it: "I would not buy a space company run by an MBA.Technology companies need to be run by people who are problem solvers, and not by people who are power centers."
     
  20. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Ford is halting production in North America and most of Europe, starting tomorrow after the evening shift.
     

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