F - Ford Motor Company

Ford is doomed. This time there will not exist any Obama saviour.
As far as I read Ford situation is very poor nowadays.
Future is so bright we have to wear shades...Ford and GE are in same situation, btw

 

Ford didn't need a bailout in 2009. It wasn't struggling for it's life, like GM and Chrysler.

Of course, Ford asked for money anyway and got $9B which it said they spent on technology.

This time, it's a different story. GM is in far better shape than Ford. Ford could be the first domestic to go.

As for my outlook, I think Ford is doomed but not because of the economic problems. They are doomed because they are selling rotary dial in the era of touch tone.

I have no doubt, the eF-150 will be a decent truck and they have an opportunity to own the electric van market. Those products would dominate commercial and delivery service that spend way more on fuel than on trucks.

But... we already know neither of these products will scale. They will sell 6000 units and there will be supply problems, for some reason. Everyone will scratch their head and consider it one of the great mysteries of the universe.

If I were to gamble on one of the major domestics, it would be GM. At this point, Ford desperately needs opposed piston ICE to remain relevant for the next 10 years.

 

While amusing, it is a plausible outcome.

 

Before we sell F short, literally, let's keep in mind they have discussed a two week shutdown and have already spoken with UAW about a restart.

 

I sold my puts too early.

 

I still hold F for the divy, mostly. I don't know if I could be convinced to load up down here.

Thoughts?

 

Ford now up at $5.25.

This might be a nice entry for some 90 day calls, as they are in an existential fight for survival.

 

Stop. I can only giggle so much.....(long term F holder here. Ughhhhh....)

 

I agree with StocjJock-e in that ford will not be allowed to die. They will get a bailout.

They will go through a world of pain first, though.

Several months ago, Elon said in an interview that Tesla would consider picking up closed factories when other manufacturers vacate them. I think this is possible but I don't know how likely. Tesla could literally buy all of ford with a stock swap and throw out their crappy management but that does not seem likely to me.

I used to think tesla would one day own the Ford plant across the street from the Tesla Fremont factory. Now Elon has said he plans to move Tesla from CA to Texas and Nevada. That too, seems unlikely. The cost will be too much short term pain for a tantrum.

On the other hand, I doubt they will put anymore factories in California. New plants will go elsewhere.

 

$F is still a buying opportunity. Ford will still dominate commercial vehicle fleet sales with the F-series trucks, Transit vans, and Police Interceptor. The iconic Mustang will continue to appeal to fanboys of "pony cars". The company does not have a problem with selling vehicles. The real problem is corporate management. Where does the money to after the sale? Not as bad as $WBA. Walgreens sales keep rising, company keeps losing money, stock keeps dropping, employees retirement accounts evaporate with stock price dropping.

 

This is a main reason why I've held F for so long. I drive for a living and just about every single commercial vehicle I see is a Ford.

 

This is a sign of better days to come.