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Failing Forward - another journal of a Wyckoff student

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Ingmar, May 19, 2018.

  1. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    Hi! I was encouraged to place some trades here. I'm a self taught Volume/Wyckoff student searching for my trading groove.

    I'm drifting more and more towards trading ranges in the pure Wyckoff way, but have not yet settled into a personalized approach that seems to suit me completely. Sometimes i place range trades at the start of a range (i trade the stopping of the climatic action and the automatic reaction/rally that follows and sometimes also the way back for the test of the stopping volume). I try to trade springs and upthrusts in ranges and channels. (influenced by David Weis). As well as no demand & no supply at the edges of ranges and channels. I watch news events on the chart if i have the time and sometimes i sneak a trade in if the professional money leaves a big footprint and if i'm feeling cocky.
    Wyckoff/Volume traders do not consider fundamental events long term market movers, they can however create a short term reaction revealing the intentions of the professional money.

    Here's one of those trades i made recently. It's a forex trade on EURUSD.

    On the daily chart i could see a range where professional money had been distributing and when i went down to the lower timeframes the bearishness was confirmed by upthrusts, signs of no demand and other signs of weakness. On this day on the chart at 14:30 a fundamental event took place.

    Here's this trade.

    [​IMG]

    When i saw buying due to the press conference, i still assumed the professionals were bearish because of the price action in the background, and they were.
    We can very well see the climatic buying of traders listening to the press conference.
    I was willing to short when i saw price becoming overbought (exit channel) and the professionals absorbing the buy orders and sell into the crowd, effectively creating a nice upthrust.
    The arrow marks the hour of the press conference. I exited the trade when i saw the selling being absorbed again at the bottom.

    I was expecting a pull back and hoping for a nice range, but i didn't want to sit through that almost at the end of the week , hence the (early) exit.
     
    #1 Ingmar, May 19, 2018
    Last edited: May 19, 2018
    OldFart, Rock Sexton, Jrich and 3 others like this.
  2. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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  3. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    Sunday evening, late in the evening for me when my charts start to move again.

    [​IMG]

    This one left the building in a hurry.
     
    OldFart likes this.
  4. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    Today i shorted LGND that i posted earlier in this Journal (and was posted in 'a Wyckoff student's Notebook' thread.)
    [​IMG]

    The target is to give price some room to move in case it drops to the demand edge of the channel. I will monitor bar by bar on a lower timeframe, especially when price reaches the previous resistance and/or support levels. This due to the trade being countertrend inside this channel. The stop is nice and tight due to it being close to the supply edge of the channel.
    So far, price has dropped nicely on increasing volume without to much opposition...yet.
     
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  5. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    EOD, price dropped nice and deep on reasonably low volume. The low volume either means little opposition/demand and tomorrow volume might rise more with falling prices, or it means supply withdrew and this is a back up to the latest breakout level for a test, which means tomorrow we see price heading off upwards again. I also have to mention todays bar is a bearish engulfing bar which took out two former lows and will probably prompt a lot of traders to go short tomorrow.

    [​IMG]

    I dove into the hourly timeframe for more information.

    [​IMG]

    I see all closes on the lows, one attempt for an upbar but that doesn't manage to drive price much higher. After that the drop continues on narrowing spread and lowering volume (closing low). This could indeed indicate supply is drying up, but looking left on the chart i see that this happens more often around the same time of day.
    It could be just be because time was getting closer to market closing time for this stock. I'm not sure and this is due to lack of experience on my part with trading stocks.

    that being said, due to the low closes and background history i decided to keep the trade running and see what happens tomorrow.
     
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  6. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    I exited the LGND short position at RR 1:1 . The lower timeframe showed more strength then i felt comfortable with and price showed signs of a smaller range at the H1.
    I'm now waiting for a phase D for new trade opportunities.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    Hey people,

    It's been a while since i last posted. I've been studying so my charts look different :).
    Here's an analysis i did that lead to the long position i took, on Apple - 1H chart, using the Wyckoff method.

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    77CCA2F4-DFD1-4DD7-B9BA-2B7AEFA81B9F.png #COUP back up / LPS

    I’ve been studying sloping ranges lately.
    There’s a lot to be found, especially in forex.
    It’s interesting to consider, back ups, secondary test that at first sight don’t make sense, suddenly do when considering sloping supply or demand.
    Of course it’s not wise to confuse a sloping consolidation with a trend.
     
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  9. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    Jack Corsellis works sloping ranges, it's been discussed a time or two here, in forum, the consensus is mixed, but most agree that applying Wyckoff to sloping ranges can be tricky and caution is advised.
     
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  10. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    Ingmar, I like that you recognize the distinction between horizontal S/R and trend. Like you though I can see how a sloping trading range structure can help make sense out of some setups and I'm not adverse to it. So far though, I remain hesitant especially since there are so many stocks to choose from and sometimes I see Bogomazov and Corsellis really over-using it when they don't have to, when it makes perfect sense with a horizontal structure. Normally if I'm going to use trend S/R I like to have horizontal S/R to back it up.
     
  11. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    Yes, the use of sloping ranges i learned from Roman Bogomazov. He always draws the horizontal S/R first and foremost. I do believe i remember him saying to be cautious and only use it if it becomes apparent.
     
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  12. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    091A7B12-34D4-4288-8E67-F9E446F71514.png Here is another sloping consolidation i found. This time within a larger consolidation.

    what do you guys/gals think?

    (The larger range i marked in capitals, the smaller consolidation with small annotations.)
     
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  13. Onepoint272

    Onepoint272 Well-Known Member

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    I think it's a good case study.

    So, do you think Phase C on the larger TR has printed

    OR

    do you think the cause of the smaller TR, currently in mark-up, will only lead to an Up-Thrust on the larger TR?
     
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  14. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    @Onepoint272 I don't think phase C has been printed based on the printing of the smaller accumulation range within the larger structure. I do, however, not exclude that idea either.

    I do expect at least an upthrust or some sort of minor sign of strength for the short term. I generally prefer to see a last test of the price level of the climactic action later in the range and that level has not been revisited since the ST/mSOW.
    However, the low before the back up of the smaller consolidation might as well be a final test. I am not sure about that though, so before i see an SOS where price holds above the upper edge i would not confidently mark phase C.
    I'm also open for a UTAD to occur after the small range mark up. Basically like this textbook distribution schematic:

    [​IMG]
     
    #14 Ingmar, Oct 24, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2019
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  15. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    TESLA STUDY: accumulation after a ‘sell off’ with gap down and resulting in a markup/earnings gap above the BC resistance.

    [​IMG]
     
    #15 Ingmar, Oct 24, 2019
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2019
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