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Failing Forward - another journal of a Wyckoff student

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by Ingmar, May 19, 2018.

  1. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    Hi! I was encouraged to place some trades here. I'm a self taught Volume/Wyckoff student searching for my trading groove.

    I'm drifting more and more towards trading ranges in the pure Wyckoff way, but have not yet settled into a personalized approach that seems to suit me completely. Sometimes i place range trades at the start of a range (i trade the stopping of the climatic action and the automatic reaction/rally that follows and sometimes also the way back for the test of the stopping volume). I try to trade springs and upthrusts in ranges and channels. (influenced by David Weis). As well as no demand & no supply at the edges of ranges and channels. I watch news events on the chart if i have the time and sometimes i sneak a trade in if the professional money leaves a big footprint and if i'm feeling cocky.
    Wyckoff/Volume traders do not consider fundamental events long term market movers, they can however create a short term reaction revealing the intentions of the professional money.

    Here's one of those trades i made recently. It's a forex trade on EURUSD.

    On the daily chart i could see a range where professional money had been distributing and when i went down to the lower timeframes the bearishness was confirmed by upthrusts, signs of no demand and other signs of weakness. On this day on the chart at 14:30 a fundamental event took place.

    Here's this trade.

    [​IMG]

    When i saw buying due to the press conference, i still assumed the professionals were bearish because of the price action in the background, and they were.
    We can very well see the climatic buying of traders listening to the press conference.
    I was willing to short when i saw price becoming overbought (exit channel) and the professionals absorbing the buy orders and sell into the crowd, effectively creating a nice upthrust.
    The arrow marks the hour of the press conference. I exited the trade when i saw the selling being absorbed again at the bottom.

    I was expecting a pull back and hoping for a nice range, but i didn't want to sit through that almost at the end of the week , hence the (early) exit.
     
    #1 Ingmar, May 19, 2018
    Last edited: May 19, 2018
  2. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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  3. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    Sunday evening, late in the evening for me when my charts start to move again.

    [​IMG]

    This one left the building in a hurry.
     
  4. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    Today i shorted LGND that i posted earlier in this Journal (and was posted in 'a Wyckoff student's Notebook' thread.)
    [​IMG]

    The target is to give price some room to move in case it drops to the demand edge of the channel. I will monitor bar by bar on a lower timeframe, especially when price reaches the previous resistance and/or support levels. This due to the trade being countertrend inside this channel. The stop is nice and tight due to it being close to the supply edge of the channel.
    So far, price has dropped nicely on increasing volume without to much opposition...yet.
     
    T0rm3nted and OldFart like this.
  5. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    EOD, price dropped nice and deep on reasonably low volume. The low volume either means little opposition/demand and tomorrow volume might rise more with falling prices, or it means supply withdrew and this is a back up to the latest breakout level for a test, which means tomorrow we see price heading off upwards again. I also have to mention todays bar is a bearish engulfing bar which took out two former lows and will probably prompt a lot of traders to go short tomorrow.

    [​IMG]

    I dove into the hourly timeframe for more information.

    [​IMG]

    I see all closes on the lows, one attempt for an upbar but that doesn't manage to drive price much higher. After that the drop continues on narrowing spread and lowering volume (closing low). This could indeed indicate supply is drying up, but looking left on the chart i see that this happens more often around the same time of day.
    It could be just be because time was getting closer to market closing time for this stock. I'm not sure and this is due to lack of experience on my part with trading stocks.

    that being said, due to the low closes and background history i decided to keep the trade running and see what happens tomorrow.
     
    Onepoint272 and T0rm3nted like this.
  6. Ingmar

    Ingmar Member

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    I exited the LGND short position at RR 1:1 . The lower timeframe showed more strength then i felt comfortable with and price showed signs of a smaller range at the H1.
    I'm now waiting for a phase D for new trade opportunities.

    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.

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