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Futures Trading: Indices

Discussion in 'Futures Trading' started by bigbear0083, Apr 4, 2016.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Futures Trading: Indicies

    (/ES, /YM, /NQ, /TF, /NKD, /VX)
     
    #1 bigbear0083, Apr 4, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2016
  2. aaa

    aaa Member

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  3. aaa

    aaa Member

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    S&P 500 at record high Thur. as Trump hints business, individual tax reforms. Financials gain 1.4%.
     
  4. aaa

    aaa Member

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    Taxreform hopes reignite Trumpflation trade. Drives Wallstreet to record highs Monday.
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    I don't mean to come across as an ass or anything, but please don't bump this thread unless you have something futures related that you want to discuss in here. Since this is the "indices" thread, that would be the /YM, /ES, /NQ and /TF specifically. Thank you.
     
    aaa likes this.
  6. aaa

    aaa Member

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    Wallstreet means its indices, /ES, /NQ in particular. But ok, I understood, I'll post related questions to discuss henceforth. Tnx for your remark!
     
  7. aaa

    aaa Member

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    Dow breached the 21000 mark for the first time yesterday, S&P and Nasdaq hit record intraday highs post-Trump speech. Overall, the US markets are up more than 10% post elections driven mainly by anticipation of "phenomenal" tax reforms, fiscal boost and financial deregulation.
    But is this rally sustainable? Consider this:
    1) The S&P500 Shiller PE (Cyclically adjusted PE ratio - CAPE) is currently at 29.52, about 77% higher than the historical mean of 16.7. This level has been exceeded only a few times before - including the housing bubble of 2008, dot com mania of the 1999 and Great Depression of 1929, indicating that the current market is grossly overvalued
    2) This puts immense pressure on the earnings to match up these high valuations. Agreed, earnings are expected to receive a boost from lower taxes from Trump tax reforms, but policy specifics remain elusive and execution could face congressional headwinds. Further, labor costs are expected to rise, given that the economy is at full employment. High labor costs combined with a rising dollar could eat into the tax aided rise in corporate earnings.
    3) Again, the markets are banking on a rise in corporate earnings from tax cuts. Such govt. aided profits do not reflect innovation and efficiency and do not aid value creation in the long run.
    Will it be a bumpy ride ahead?
     
  8. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    been using and trading /ES:

    1 minute charts
    Bollinger bands
    MACD
    ADX

    so far in two days, 71 ticks = $862.50 trading one lot ( small account )
    not too shabby...lol

    entrance + exit = about 5 - 10 minutes per trade ( or less )
     
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  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    OldFart likes this.

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