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Getting old: when to get out of investing?

Discussion in 'Investing' started by TomB16, Aug 4, 2020.

  1. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    When millennial started playing the market, many of them seemed retarded. Even now, the way some folks think hurts my head just trying to comprehend.

    I used to look at the "new money" as willing donors to the darker forces on the market.

    In the last 15 years, I've been holding well run, stable, profitable companies and we have done extremely well.

    These days, I can see a massive shift in the world. It isn't reflected in the market but it will have to be, at some point in the future. Even Tesla is a business model that I can understand so it can't be too unusual.

    I see a whole new financial world sprouting from the parents of PayPal and a BitCoin slot machine. There is also a whole new world of medicine, based on genetic engineering, that can fix countless problems previously intractable, many before they turn into problems, and often permanently cure for generations. In the future, everything is going to be a service, apparently.

    That's not a world I fully understand. I'm trying to get my head around it but I wonder if it's time to start moving into ARKK.

    At what point will I be the one stripped of his money and millennial carve through the market? At what point will I be obsolete? For sure, I won't be relevant for 20 more years. This might be the Jack Daniels soaked crystal meth talking but I feel I can keep up at this point in time. My brain is mostly OK, however, I suspect I am getting toward the end of my useful investing life.

    Has anyone else put thought into this? Perhaps you would share your point of view? What is your strategy to protect your nest egg as you age?

    Maybe I'm the only one who is mentally slowing with age?
     
  2. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Screenshot_20200801-232215.png

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  3. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    WELL.......of course I think about this....being age 70. I HOPE that at some point when I see that I am falling behind the SP500 and not keeping up in my thinking........at that point I will simply sell everything and put it ALL in a SP500 index. The BIG assumption here is that I will know that it is time.
     
    #3 WXYZ, Aug 4, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
    TomB16 likes this.
  4. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    What about when Disco Bunnies got into trading in The 70s?
     
  5. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I didn't see a lot of trading in the 1970s.

    That was an era when you would call your broker, tell him to sell something, and then have a 30 minute argument on why he should allow you to sell your stock. Trades were over $200, back in the day.

    Discount brokerages changed that. These days, Robin Hood has made it easier than going to the casino.

    Thanks for reminding me to put my poster of Olivia Newton John in a bright blue leotard back up over my bed.
     
  6. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    She has a headband and leg warmers

    You don't want to know the rest......
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  7. WXYZ

    WXYZ Well-Known Member

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    YES.......there was not a lot of trading in the 1970's. In fact very few people owned stocks or funds. The IRA was a long ways off and that is what started to get people into the markets......slowly. The first trading mania I remember in my life was in the 1990's.

    TomB16 is right......you had to call your broker on the phone and........yes.......they often tried to intimidate you out of whatever you wanted to do. He is also right about the comissions.....especially on trades that were not round lots. (100 shares)
     
  8. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I was a tween when that movie came out. She warmed the cockles of my cockle.

    Holy cow, I thought I was developing asthma but it went away when I took that poster down.
     
  9. roadtonowhere08

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    You bring up some very good points, TomB16.

    I am not nearly as experienced in the market as a bunch of you, but I do think there will certainly be aspects of the market that will change as a result of the changing economy and other as aspects that will stay the same. I think the newer generation of investors will be a lot more trigger happy in trading and lean less into long term holding for the reason you brought up: no fee trading. It really scratches that gambling itch some people have, and you can do it from anywhere. I also think market volatility might be more of the norm with shifting economies and the larger influence of the Robinhood people. I also think our Government's habit of pushing problems off until the next presidential term will catch up to us, and that will drive market instability greatly.

    I do think a few things will stay the same forever though. Value investing will always have a strong following. The never ending search to get on the next Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla train early on for the ride up will be around forever. Taxes will always be collected :biggrin:

    I am curious as to what you guys think about ARKK. It appears to be a very well run fund with a very sharp manager in Catherine Wood. The fees do not seem to be too extreme, and the holdings are very forward looking. The question is would it make more sense to wait for the eventual pullback, park it all in ARKK, and rest easy? Or would it might be advantageous to basically buy a congruent slice of their holdings, save on the fees, and check in regularly to see if they made any moves? Basically shadowing them to save on the annual fees. It seems to be the best of both worlds: let them do all the research and I save on the fees. I would also have the benefit of making any emergency changes with my online broker. Any thoughts on that?
     
    #9 roadtonowhere08, Aug 5, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2020
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  10. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    Interesting thoughts here everyone should think about.

    My kids joke and snicker when I am a butt and remind me that they will be picking my retirement home in a devilishly way.

    I laugh.

    But I get the last laugh.

    If they want my money they are going to have to set me up right. ;)

    Till then I will play the markets for fun, entertainments, and hopefully profits.

    That is untill my hands get too shaky and I end up buying the completely wrong things on the phone. (Or whatever device or method the future concocts up for traders or investors.)
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  11. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    Are you still picking up a phone to call in your orders?
     
  12. 姑爺仔

    姑爺仔 Active Member

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    I thought it was the 80's. Wall Street. The Wolf of Wall Street. Family Ties character Alex Keaton always talking about the stock market.Those films depicted the 80's as hot financial times. Cocaine Cowboys. Briefcase full of money. Double breasted, pinstriped suits. Yellow ties and suspender pants. Hair gel. I watched every episode of Miami Vice.
     
  13. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

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    If you mean, calling a broker?....

    Gads, not in many years. :cool:

    A phone, laptop, desktop, and soon just by thinking about it after Neuralink gives me my implant. :popcorn:
     
  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    It's nice to meet you, Roadtonowhere. Come on inside.

    Regarding stocks in the 1970s,

    Warren Buffett tried to sell stock for a while. There were a couple of insurance companies that performed better than the life insurance they offered. In other words, you could buy stock in the company and get a better benefit than the same value of life insurance.

    He said stocks were commonly selling with P/E of 2, back in the day.

    It sounds like there was little trust in the market.


    You're the first person I've read who had anything positive to say about ARKK, other than me. It's an actively managed fund so that's a red flag but it is the only actively managed fund to out perform the S&P 500 consistently over a long period of time.

    The fund doesn't fully align with my approach, so I have held off buying it. Specifically, they have sold Tesla stock before every quarterly result for quite a few quarters. I've never heard of these sort of moves being profitable and that includes in the case of ARKK.

    Still, their performance, including their various failings, is tremendously good. Their research is very strong and they are looking forward. These are all things that make a winner, IMO.

    As for simulating their result, that is often a good idea, particularly to avoid the overhead of an actively managed fund. In my case, I don't know enough about the equities that underpin the fund, with the exception of Tesla, to own them directly so I will go with the fund, if/when I decide to go that way.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  15. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    Getting a little press. More people are noticing.
    Screenshot_20200805-083742.png
     
  16. roadtonowhere08

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    It seems to be a fund that aligns with the seemingly shifting paradigm of investing lately: looking for the next ride up rather than investing with established and stable companies. More risky to be sure, but the numbers so far look good, and quite frankly, nothing makes sense in the market anymore as all of you have clearly illustrated in open eyed yet humorous quips and memes.
     
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  17. A55

    A55 Active Member

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    The next ride up, could be tomorrow's established and stable. Tesla, Salesforce, Crowdstrike.......in 10 years, they'll be "old school". Robotic surgery, telemedicine, and there will be huge development in medical diagnostics beyond the GE portable x-ray machine.
     

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