The market cap for AMD and Intel are essentially identical right now at 121.5B. AMD EPS = 1.69 INTC EPS = 3.23 From my perspective, Intel looks like the far hotter sister in this family.
Two days ago, Intel announced the Intel 4 process node is ready and about to engage manufacturing immediately. The Intel 4 node is a 7nm process. They are not world leading, by any stretch. They are close to the leading edge, though. They struggled with 10mm (never did get it fully sorted) and Samsung is struggling with their most advanced two nodes, as well. I don't know what this means, specifically. Is there a ramping period? Are they saying they can produce hundreds of thousands of wafers at this node at full speed? If they are saying this, I will sell my stock. There must be a ramp period. This is their first EUV node so we must expect a few bumps in the road. Still, this is significant. I find myself extremely impressed with Intel. Kudos to them for the hard work they have done to become relevant again.
If China supplies weapons to Russia, it will be interesting to see the political ramifications of that move. I suspect nothing will come out of it, like every other crap thing China does. We will voice our displeasure and continue sending unfathomable money, along with most of the manufacturing jobs on the planet, to China. But, if we could somehow acquire some sort of backbone and we were to onshore some of our IC production, Intel would inherit a ton of business. If that happens, they might even make chips for AMD. Can you imagine? What a day that would be. Jerry Sanders would spin over in his grave.
Ok. Please allow me to be direct. I see little down side to INTC. It could go down a bit but I don't see a lot of risk there. On the other hand, if politics shift much at all, Intel could easily double. What's more, they only have to be near leading edge to achieve a doubling of market cap. Alternately, if they can catch up or even get to the leading edge nodes a few months behind, they could take a whole lot of business from TSMC. They would even gain business from Samsung in Korea. This game is Intel's to lose, IMO. They are the home team. Is that hot enough for you?
