This Indicator Is Screaming "Buy This Now" The Non Farm Payrolls Report was insanely strong, yet yields (interest rates) did not budge. Good economic news usually spikes yields because it means the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates. This was a perplexing disconnect. However, it appears as if it was a delayed reaction. Today yields are spiking. The 10 year yield is up 4.29% to 1.424%. The important factor for today is the strong reversal. This likely means a near term bottom is in rates. Thirteen Federal Reserve Presidents are speaking later this week. Based on today's price action in yields, it appears the market is starting to expect hawkish commentary. Buying the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yr (NYSEARCA:TBT) will give you exposure and profits if yields continue to rise. Notice the pop today is reversal the entire drop from Friday. This is a technical bullish reversal and tells traders more upside is likely the rest of the week. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
The Fear And Greed Indicator Is Screaming At You: Look At This... The driving force of every stock and market is greed and fear. While many will tell you it is earnings or the economy it is not. Earnings or lack there of, just create the human emotion of greed or fear. Greed drives people to invest their hard earned money irrationally and fear causes a mass exodus based on pure emotion. The best traders and investors in the world use fear and greed to place themselves on the opposite side of the majority. Remember, small investors always lose. They invest too late in a bull market or sell their stocks at the bottom of a collapse, just before the rally. Therefore, being opposite of the investing public is the profitable position when the market is at extremes. One of the best indicators of fear and greed is the CNN Fear & Greed Index. This indicator takes into account put & call options, junk bond demand, market momentum, stock price strength, stock price breadth, safe haven demand and market volatility. While not perfect it gives you a good basis for potential reversals in the market (major tops and bottoms). The key is to understand how to read it. Reading the Fear & Greed Index is simple. For maximum success, only pay attention to readings below 10 (massive fear) or above 90 (massive greed). History has shown us that when this indicator gets to these these extremes, the markets are about to reverse. It is a great tool to have in your tool box and helps take out the emotion created by the hype on Wall Street. Currently, the CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 88. This tells us the markets are running on greed. However, for a strong sell signal we still want to see it at least touch 90. It may today or tomorrow. That would be the dead on short signal I am waiting for. A reversal/sell off should start within a day or so.
ALERT: Short Trade On Goldman Sachs ($GS) At This Level... Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) has ripped higher for five straight days. Amateur investors are starting to buy in, but smart money is selling. Why? Because the GS chart is near term extended and approaching a major technical chart level known as gap fill. On the chart below you can see this clearly shown. The potential short trade will only be initiated IF GS hits gap fill at $159.40 in the next two days (by Thursday, July 14th 2016). This is known as a swing trade, meaning you look for a quick sharp pull back over the course of one week, then take profits. The pull back could potentially take you to a target of $149.75. That would be an approximate $10 profit on Goldman Sachs in a week if this trade plays out correctly. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
Huge Sell Signal Alert On $AMZN: Target Revealed Amazon, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is putting in the sell signal of the year. This stock has been a one way freight train, but that is about to reverse hard. Take a look at the price action in 2016. The stock is up from $475 per shares to a high yesterday of $757 per share. Just in 2016 that is a gain of almost 60%. The overbought nature of this stock is only a minor part of why it is going to be a huge sell with a target of $600. The main factor has to do with the sell signal seen on the chart in the last 24 hours. The stock rallied in the past week into Prime Day (a made up shopping holiday). Yesterday, the stock sold off on rumors that sales were not going to meet expectations. However, today good news on sales popped it back up...for a short while. This good news failed to keep the stock up, let alone take out yesterdays highs. The fact that yesterdays highs did not get breached is a sell signal of epic proportion on a stock up 60% in 2016. Investors with a technical analysis background are rushing to sell or short. If the key up-sloping trend line is broken to the downside (seen in the chart below), Amazon has little to no support until $600 (a key gap fill). This might be one of the best shorts in the stock market for the second half of 2016. You heard it here first. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks.com
What To Expect From The Inflation Data Surge & Fed his morning saw the Bank of England surprising the financial markets by not lowering interest rates as had been expected. This move is shocking because it goes in the face of all other global central banks and their easy money policy. After Brexit, the Bank of England was in a perfect position to lower rates but chose to stand firm. Could this be a new wave of central bank thought? Is easy money policy not the answer to energizing growth? For the United States, perhaps the bigger news came in the form of economic news. The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation came in at 0.5%. This was the largest increase since May 2015. The sharp increase in inflation is likely to cause the Federal Reserve to worry. Over the last year, the decent economy and super strong stock market has not caused the Federal Reserve to hike rates since December 2015. Their reasoning has been that inflation is still non existent. If this inflation data becomes a trend at these levels, the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates or face a far worse future of stagflation. Stagflation is the most feared of all scenarios where inflation spikes but growth is flat. This means prices of goods jump higher but average income stalls and economic growth drags. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks
Trading The Coup In Turkey: Need To Know Info... The U.S. stock market closed on Friday flat to slightly lower. Institutions kept the lid on the news that was breaking a world away to make sure the stock options they had sold to investors expired worthless, maximizing profits. Options expiration is a multi-million Dollar payoff to institutions, thus important to control. An attempted military coup in Turkey. The Middle East, a hot bed for terror already, had just blown up again with more violence. Turkey is a NATO member and this is a big deal since the country borders Syria and ISIS held territory. The markets sold off sharply after-hours Friday. However, that does not tell us anything about what Monday may hold. Why? Simply put, the markets sold off after-hours on fear and panic of the unknown. Who is in control in Turkey? What was going to happen next? The markets always sell on fear of the unknown. Sell first, ask questions later is the common theme. If things straighten themselves out by Monday morning, the markets may shrug this off like no big deal. There is likely to be some minor selling on one more potential world issue, but if the Turkish government holds on to power and puts this coup down, markets will have a muted response. On the other hand, if there is chaos and fighting in Turkey Sunday night, there is likely to be one heck of a negative reaction. Turkey has been a stable country in a part of the world that has been filled with insanity. Turkey has also been an ally to the west. Instability there could be very detrimental to the whole entire region. The markets are priced to perfection and a Brexit type reaction is likely if things are not stable by Sunday night. To profit from this event you likely had to be short going into Friday's close like I was and those that follow me.Why was I short? The logic is simple. The markets are at all time highs, P/E ratios are at the very high end of historic levels. Smart money has sold longs and shorted the market because any shock to the market means solid downside and good news means minimal upside. Gareth Soloway InTheMoneYStocks
