InTheMoneyStocks Day Trading/Swing Trading Market Moving Action

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by inthemoneystocks, Apr 5, 2016.

  1. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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  2. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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  3. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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  4. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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  5. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    If (and a big IF) either $DASH or $ABNB door poorly in their IPO debuts, it could spell the beginning of the end for dumb money willing to pay anything. Watching more closely than usual to see the performance when they open. #AirBNB debuts tomorrow.
     
  6. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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  7. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    Fed Decision, Chart Levels, Trade Setups & More...


     
  8. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    Here's How To Capture Big Percentage Gains From Small Bounces...

     
  9. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    Investor Trade Alerts: Russell 2000 Finally At Top


    The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has surged over 30% since October 30th, 2020. This is an investor trade alert as the Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 for the last few years. This epic run has now fully caught it up. Why is that so? Connect all the major pivot tops on the monthly chart (total of 4) from the lows in 2009 and the trend line extends to just above where the Russell 2000 ETF IWM is trading right now. In other words, another 1% upside on the IWM and it will hit the major trend line. Historically, since 2009 this trend line has dictated major sell-offs on the Russell 2000. Based on that logic, investors should expect a sharp pull back once tagged. In addition, this same trend line can be found on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 having been tagged recently. That is another signal the Russell 2000 has caught up to the other indexes. If looking to short the IWM, the even number of $200.00 looks promising as it also coincides with the Russell 2000 hitting $2,000.


    [​IMG]
     
  10. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    #FederalReserve removed restrictions on banks so they can do billions in buybacks. Mind you, 3 days after they said things were so bad they had to keep printing money potentially through 2023. Hmmm, me thinks the two don't add up or the Fed just says what the market wants to hear
     
  11. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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  12. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    Gareth had a great talk on Kitco today, I think everyone will find a lot of value in it...


     
  13. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    The ONLY WAY To Trade Options: 25% In One Day…



     
  14. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    Trades To Take Today:
    $TSLA, $SWBI, #OIL, $PLUG and more...

     
  15. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    TRADE ALERTS: Trading Levels For Profit Today...

     
  16. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    5 Reasons Why This Market Is A Bubble


    The stock market continues to make new all-time highs almost daily. However, almost every respected economist in the world will clearly tell investors, “the stock market is in a bubble”. While no one can tell when it will burst, the dislocation from fundamental analysis is insane. Stocks keep rising, some but 10-50% a day for weeks at a time. Most of these stocks that have no path to profitability or even survival and are trading at multi-billion-Dollar valuations. Below are the 5 reasons every investor should understand the stock market is a bubble.

    1. The Federal Reserve has flooded the market with zero interest rate money. They have done this by pushing rates to near 0% and pushing money into the system by buying bonds. This is left investors with no choice but to invest in stocks. It is the only place to get any sort of return that is above inflation. After 11 years of 0 interest rates, investors need to expect an unwind. With the 10 year yield approaching 1.2% and the 30 year approaching 2%, it is wise to think the party is near an end.
    2. The retail investor is back big. Since 2009, analysts and traders have commented how the small investor has never dared come back into the stock market after being burned during the financial crisis. Having the retail investor in the market is key for institutions. They need someone to dump their large positions to. It is safe to say that for any bubble to burst, you need the small investors buying stocks hand over fist. This allows the institutions to unload big positions. Historically, anytime the small investors have gotten into the market heavily, the stock market has been near a major bubble top point.
    3. Margin levels are insane. The amount of money being borrowed to buy stocks is at record highs. This ties into both the retail investor as well as the Federal Reserve. Money is cheap so investors are willing to borrow money to buy stocks. Money is cheap because the Federal Reserve drove interest rates to near 0%. Every past bubble collapse has seen margin rates at historic highs just prior to the collapse. Margin is so important because even a small 10% correction in the stock market can trigger margin calls. To cover a margin call, investors have to sell more stock. This then triggers more selling pressure in the market.
    4. The insanity in stocks like Gamestop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC), Tilray (TLRY) are a direct replica of what happened in the late 1990’s during the dot.com frenzy. When small investors pump and dump stocks. Runs of over 1,000% like on Gamestop are exactly like what happened in the dot.com era. Even stocks like Tesla Inc (TSLA) mirror Cisco Systems (CSCO) in 1999 when it ballooned to a $750B market cap company with a PE over 1,000, much like Tesla today.
    5. The SPAC mania is another warning sign. In 2007 and 1999, companies were racing to come public because money was everywhere. Today, it is arguably even more insane with how many SPAC’s are going public. 90% of them make almost no money and have no logical path to profitability. This is exactly like 1999 when Dot.com stocks were coming public non-stop. Companies run by kids out of their parents basement were commanding $100m valuations. The main different today? Instead of $100 million valuations, the valuations are $10-100 Billion.
    There are countless other signals of a bubble. However, the big question remains….when will it burst. When it does, look for an over 50% drop in the stock market. Considering the bubble has been created by the Federal Reserve, it makes sense that a pop in inflation which causes interest rates to jump would be the culprit. The TIPS market is signaling possible 3% inflation by year end. So, while this bubble could last longer, it is on its final stretch in my humble opinion.

    Gareth Soloway
    Chief Market Strategist
    InTheMoneyStocks.com
     
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  17. CFi

    CFi Member

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    Hey Gareth,

    Loved your piece on why the market is in a bubble. Especially number 2 on how institutional investors need to unload their large positions was a thought I hadn't read before. I actually concur with all your points which make it seem inevitable that something like the dotcom or 2008 crash will happen again. This seems to be the prevailing opinion at the moment. Not just the financial media anticipates it. Also the Fed recently ran a stress test to see whether banks could handle a 55% drop in equity prices.

    However, when most people agree on an opinion, I always get a bit itchy. Crashes are rarely foreseen, they happen. (A few people will, of course, have "predicted" them. But that might be a backward looking bias focusing on the people whose opinion turned out to be right. Robert Shiller, who famously warned about the housing bubble, has been warning about stretched valuations for years, with the market continuing to march higher.) I would like to get your opinion on a counter-thesis I have heard people throw around: What if we are at the beginning of a new bull market? The pandemic has accelerated the shift to digital. Many claim adoption rates of everything from e-commerce to cashless payments and food delivery have jumped several years ahead. A lot of the zero-interest money will flow into digital services. Now more than ever. They have long been hailed as the future, now the trend seems unstoppable. While a lot of parts of the economy will have trouble regaining their footing, especially hospitality and the like, everything technology is going to expand rapidly from here on out. And it's not just about new companies, but existing companies will transform their businesses too. Just think of banks investing billions into upgrading their legacy technology, trying to make their services and products more accessible and easy to use.

    Thanks,
    Chris
     
  18. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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    Yields, Gold & More Trades. Check it out...

     
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  19. inthemoneystocks

    inthemoneystocks Well-Known Member

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  20. inthemoneystocks

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    Short $GME, $TSLA, And More! WATCH THIS…


     

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