Investing now

Discussion in 'Investing' started by Matt0029, Apr 25, 2022.

  1. Matt0029

    Matt0029 New Member

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    Would it still be advisable to add to your portfolio/ buy more funds. With the possibility of a recession next year. Or hold on to cash? Have not seen this type of situation before I have been investigating for about 4 to 5 years. Thanks
     
  2. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I've been investing for 39 years and there has always been a recession just around the corner. The people who can be brave in the face of negative talk always do far better than the people who recoil at every announcement of the sky falling.

    With that out of the way, the correct path forward will most likely depend on your age.

    I'm 55 years old. If we fall into a 10 year recession, it will hurt me far more than a 35 year old who is working. In fact, the working 35 year old will take a big boost, because of it.

    If I was 65 and the world fell into a 10 year recession, it would almost be a game ender. Having a bunch of money at 75 isn't all that useful. You need the most money from retirement until about 65 or 70. For this reason, I have a small GIC ladder that will get larger with time. My plan is to insulate myself against a 3 year market crash. By the time I'm 60, that will be boosted to 5 years.

    If you are less than 50, I suggest keeping your foot to the floor is the way to go, crash or not.
     
  3. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Not sure I necessarily agree with this part, but I understand the sentiment for sure. The working 35 year old probably still has student loans, hasn't saved much money, and everything they're used to paying for by the skin of their teeth is now costing more money. In a true recession, work may be hard to find as well.

    If you were purely talking about who's 401k will hurt more, who's investments will hurt more, etc, then I would agree with you.
     
  4. Matt0029

    Matt0029 New Member

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    Yes I am 34.
     
  5. IndependentCandy14

    IndependentCandy14 Active Member

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    Howdy Matt0029,

    I Invest Immediately When I Have Funds Available for Investing.

    I Do Not Try to Time the Markets.
    Even Though I Try to Time my Buys During My Investing Days to Try and Get the Best Price for the Day. Its Fun. LoL.
    When I Have the Cash that is for Investing, and Saving, I Buy the Same Day.

    I Am One Year Younger to You.

    With the Amount of Time we Have in the Markets,15-20 Years at the Minimum, the S&P Will be Much Higher than Where It Sits Today ~$4,300.00.

    Good Luck & Stay Invested!

    -IndependentCandy14
     
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  6. werwoo

    werwoo New Member

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    Definitely continue to invest. Whenever there is a crisis I usually look through similar periods and the decision comes up what to do next
     
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  7. Matt0029

    Matt0029 New Member

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    Thanks yes I have quiet abit in technology funds. I am quiet conserned by the drop in these. Any one else in technology funds?
     
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  8. IndependentCandy14

    IndependentCandy14 Active Member

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    Yes. I am, and IMO Most People are Heavily Invested into the Mega Cap Big Tech Companies due to the Current Composition of the Majority of ETFs and Mutual Funds.
    No Way Would I Be 100% Invested into QQQ (Nasdaq 100) ETF. LoL.

    -IndependentCandy14
     
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  9. Matt0029

    Matt0029 New Member

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    Do you buy funds that mainly focus on technology? Or mainly just world trackers which as you say have alot of tech in them. Thanks
     
  10. IndependentCandy14

    IndependentCandy14 Active Member

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    I Mainly Buy VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund).
    This ETF is Composed of All of the USA Stocks. It Includes 4,124 Holdings.

    I Would Not Consider VTI as a Technology Fund; however, it is Weighted Heavily towards the Technology Sector.
    27.6% of its Holdings are in the Technology Sector.

    VTI’s Top 10 Holdings are Pictured Below:

    B46F8FF3-D3DB-424D-BFCE-FA0EDE9B74E2.jpeg
    *Photo Source: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VTI

    7 out of the 10 Largest Holdings are Outright Technology Companies.
    IMO, Meta and NVIDIA still have some Proving To Do.
    I Wish that Fund Managers Would Not Include such Stocks in such Large Percentages in VTI; there are Other Technology Focused Funds for that.

    -IndependentCandy14
     
  11. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I just re-read this thread and realize the responses, other than mine, are opinions on trading. My opinion was regarding long term investment. I have absolutely no opinion on how to trade anything.

    Back to investment...

    Every study I have ever read, including my own analysis, shows that continuous, long term, investment with no regard for market conditions is better than market timing when considered over the course of a lifetime. It isn't even close.

    Matt, if you are a trader, I suggest you disregard my posts. Really. I have nothing to offer you.

    If you are a long term investor, I suggest you do your own analysis. Figure out, over a period of 10+ years, how often your market anticipations would have increased your net worth and how often your reactions would have reduced your net worth, as compared to doing nothing. If you are honest with yourself, it will confirm the various studies on the subject and help you see clearly who is attached to base reality and who is operating on hubris with no telemetry.
     
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  12. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    Matt hasn't been on-site in nearly 3 months. If he invested in anything chances are he's upside down in his positions.
    That doesn't appeal to me.
     
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  13. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    For sure. One of the down sides of long term investing is you are nearly certain to lose value during a down cycle.

    This is where trading shines. You can make 40% per month while I lost 17% on the year.

    The point of my post is to shrug off the loss, as well as the gains, and just keep putting money into the market over time. Again, this advice is not relevant to traders.
     
  14. Spud

    Spud Well-Known Member

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    I was mainly pointing out that you're responding to a ghost. :lauging: Dude hasn't posted in nearly 3 months.

    You'll get no argument from me, although we may have different styles and I'm older than your young a**, I put a lot of thought into most of your post. It takes skill and tons of research to find a solid company to cast your lot in. Tesla was a very impressive journey, you paid your dues and rode the storm out. I'm proud you were rewarded you deserve it.

    If we all agreed life would suck and be very boring.
     
  15. IndependentCandy14

    IndependentCandy14 Active Member

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    TomB16,

    I Just Re-Read this Thread Too.

    What about his thread is about trading and NOT about Long Term Investing?

    -IndependentCandy14
     
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    He is asking about market timing.

    Market Timing = Trading


    It has been demonstrated time and again, the vast majority of times you are better off to simply buy continuously over a long period of time than batch your money up and time the market. Still, most people cannot internalize this concept so few do it.

    I batch money up, however, I am not a market investor. I have specific value levels for companies and deploy cash when one of my companies shows value. The market could be in the stratosphere and I will buy, as long as I have a company that shows value.
     

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