dayum! what a rocket shot this has been since the election! the last time the small caps index has seen 11 up days in a row you'd have to go back to 2003!
I think so. Unless something crazy happens in these final 90min. of the day here we're looking at the longest winning streak since 2003 ... looks hella overextended imho ... a little pullback to about where you have highlighted in your chart there would be perfectly fine & healthy ... but this is starting to get a little parabolic in nature and we all know how those things can end lol. A little pullback isn't going to kill the rally imo.
There are too many bears for this to go down...still. a 2 year compression of Bearishness needs to be worked off and squeezed out of this 2 year consolidation.
The Russell 2000 ETF $IWM is finally pulling back after a 20% move to the upside. While the correction is just starting, investors are eager to buy the pull back. I did some chart analysis to find out where the target of the pull back would be. With the $IWM currently trading $136.75, there is still quite a bit of downside. The target where $IWM gets interesting as a buy is $125.00. This is a former major pivot high as well as a Fibonacci 61.8% retrace level. If the Russell ETF $IWM fell straight to $125, I would buy for a hard bounce off of it. This would only be a quick trade though, as the stock market is over-valued.
Almost back to new highs here! Small caps resuming the post-election out performance of the overall markets.
The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM), which tracks small caps, has a very bullish consolidation pattern setup over the last few weeks. This is a digestion of the massive 20% surge it saw after Donald Trump won the presidency. As long as the chart holds this pattern, investors should be looking for a surge higher over the next two weeks in the IWM to $140 at a minimum. However, if at any time the IWM closes below the channel shown in the stock chart of IWM below, exit immediately. This would be a failed pattern and signal a coming collapse. Investors should pay very close attention to small cap stocks that are undervalued. They may see big gains as long as the breakout begins.
Are Small Caps Burning Out or Fading Away? Small cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 have seasonal “Best 8 Months” that begins in November and ends in June, much like the NASDAQ’s Best 8 Months, both are longer than DJIA’s and S&P 500’s Best Six Months. As you can see in the chart below from page 110 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017, the “Small Cap Effect,” née January Effect, shows small cap stocks begin to outperform large cap stocks in earnest in mid-December. Though they hold the lead through the beginning of June when their bullish season ends, though the bulk of the move is complete by early March. This has once again been the case here in 2017. In the final chart below of the Russell 2000 compared to the S&P 500, it is clear that since late-February R2K has underperformed S&P. Today was no exception in the Fed-minutes-fueled, late-day selloff. While the overall market is still expected to make another move higher before any Trump Tumble transpires, small caps are likely to just keep pace with large caps at best.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing Support Wed, Aug 28, 2019 Unlike large-cap major indices like the Dow or S&P 500 which managed to reach record highs earlier this year, so far in 2019, the small-cap focused Russell 2000 never managed to so much as retest the highs from around this time last year. In fact, in the past year, other than the final leg down to December lows and the subsequent rally back up to previous levels in early 2019, the Russell has been in a range between support and resistance from last fall. This support and resistance can actually be traced back even further to the highs and lows of late 2017 and early 2018. This year has seen more tests of these support levels after May declines and once again this month. At the beginning of August, the Russell collapsed through flat 50 and 200-DMAs finding relief at the bottom of this range. Since then, the index has been bouncing between this support and the 200-day with the most recent failed test of its 200-DMA coming just last week. Over the past few sessions, while it has not closed significantly below, intraday the index has breached these critical support levels. Fortunately, today the index is seeing some mean reversion from its extreme oversold levels as it is up rather than breaking out of the range to the downside.
Shares of the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM are bouncing for the second day in a row. The big question is, what is the bounce target? To answer this we turn to technical analysis. This epic collapse in the Russell 2000 started at $169 on February 20th, 2020. By March 19th, 2020 it tagged $95.50. This was an huge collapse of 43.50% in one month. A drop of this magnitude, this quickly is almost unheard of. In any case, the collapse percentage does give us some great information technically. When we do our Fibonacci retrace lines, we find that a 38.2% retrace is near $124.00 (current price is $111.00). In addition there is a major gap fill $126.00. When two major technical levels are so close together, it gives investors a good idea that will be an ideal target near-term. To summarize, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) will likely bounce to $124-$126 in the coming weeks before stalling and possibly turned back down. Check out the chart below... https://inthemoneystocks.com/how-high-can-the-russell-2000-etf-iwm-bounce/ Gareth Soloway InTheMoneyStocks Chief Market Strategist
Believe it or not, the Russell 2000 Index has shown leadership over the past week. Even today, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is trading higher by more than 6.0% on the session. Trader should remember that the Russell 2000 Index represents small capitalization companies in the United States. When that index shows leadership it is very big positive for the markets and the country. It should be noted that the Russell 2000 Index was the weakest index during the recent February and March stock market crash. It declined the the most and the fastest. The recent rally in the IWM is certainly a change in character for the small cap stocks and the stock market. Check out the chart below... https://inthemoneystocks.com/the-russell-2000-index-iwm-is-showing-leadership/ Nick Santiago InTheMoneyStocks Chief Market Strategist