James Thatcher's News Trade Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by JamesThatcher, Apr 14, 2021.

  1. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Australia Employment Change April 15 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    There are two main lines of data on this release.

    Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

    Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


    Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

    March 18 2021 We got a 0.5% reduction in Unemployment Rate with complimentary 58k positive Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34188;t=2021-3-18 0:30:00.0;s=GBPAUD;r=S5

    February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28577;t=2021-2-18 0:30:00.0;s=AUDNZD;r=M1

    January 21 2021 No deviations on this release, and as you can see from the charts, the market didn’t move!

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=26434;t=2021-1-21 0:30:00.0;s=AUDNZD;r=M1




    My Forecasts For Today

    Empl Chg - Full Time 0
    Employment Change 35
    Unemployment Rate 5.7



    Today's Trade Plan

    The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate, this is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

    If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecasted Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

    If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



    Tradable Pairs

    AUDJPY
    AUDNZD
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  2. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Turkey Interest Rate April 15 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on where to set the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the TRY.


    Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

    March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34208;t=2021-3-18 11:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S10

    December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=25738;t=2020-12-24 11:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1

    October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=23557;t=2020-10-22 11:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1




    I Will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 19



    Today's Trade Plan

    25 forecasts today. This is broken down here:-

    23 forecast for the rate to stay at 19%
    1 forecast for a cut to 18.5%
    1 forecast for a cut to 17%

    Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signaled he won't cut yet but let's see!

    Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs.



    Tradable Pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


     
  3. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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  4. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Minimal deviations today, Also full-time employment gave a conflict. It wasn't a trade for me this time.
     
  5. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Weekly Summary

    Hey
    How you all feeling about this weeks trading?
    Last week's diary was pretty scarce, and I set up only for four trades where only one trade gave us a deviation from the forecast worth taking a risk on. Unfortunately, this one of the rare occurrences which resulted in a slight loss; losses will happen. It's part of the game. A good reminder to do your analysis, Always work out if the potential reward is worth the risk. Remember, this is real money. This loss was minimal, and I'm in profit for the month with two more weeks to go. The diary is pretty light this week too, it isn't necessarily about the number of trades you take. If the markets give us some surprises, we only need one or two. My diary changes minute by minute (tick by tick) just like the markets; however, currently, this is what I'm setting up for this week.

    20 April 2021 23:45 New Zealand CPI (Q/Q)
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=CPI (QoQ)

    21 April 2021 13:30 Canada CPI (M/M)
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=Core CPI (MoM)

    21 April 2021 15:00 Canada Overnight Rate
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=BoC Rate Statement

    21 April 2021 15:30 Crude Oil Inventories
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

    23 April 2021 18:30 German Composite PMI
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude Oil Inventories

    I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
    Please feel free to ask questions.

    Good luck this week.
    James Thatcher
     
  6. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Canada Core CPI m/m April 21 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 17 2021 Small deviations managed to create small moves, nothing exciting, though, and the retraces were swift and dangerous.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34157;t=2021-3-17 12:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=S30

    February 17 2021 Small deviations again created a feeble move.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=29267;t=2021-2-17 13:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=S30

    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (M/M) 0.6
    CPI (Y/Y) 2.3
    CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.4
    CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.1
    CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 2.0

    Today's trade plan

    We hope that as we move forward, this data will become more interesting to the market. However, we may not be there yet.

    Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
    Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation that will bring us safety and profit.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  7. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories April 21 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 14 2021 Nice move! But it didn't hit a trigger for me.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38793;t=2021-4-14 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

    April 7 2021 Minimal deviations didn't create the move we would need to be safe.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=36450;t=2021-4-7 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

    March 24 2021 Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time?

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34654;t=2021-3-24 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1500
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000



    Today's trade plan

    If we get a deviation of 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.

    1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = -3000
    2) API Actual Crude = +0400
    3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0464
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -1600



    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  8. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Core CPI was nowhere near the deviations I needed, so no trade for me. As you see, not much of a move on CAD pairs for CPI; however, notice the charts 90 minutes later when the Bank of Canada's monetary policy report suggested that interest rates could hike in 2022 and not their previous estimation in 2023. That means next month, this and other Canadian data becomes hot.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41172;t=2021-4-21 12:30:00.0;s=;r=M15
     
  9. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for so no trade, take a look at the chart though, it's scary when you see the price move in the right direction of the news and immediately reverse and go the wrong way, Remember the importance of your analysis and risk reward ratio, not just any deviation will work eveytime.




    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=;r=S1
     
  10. Stocksam

    Stocksam New Member

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    this would be a great help, will use it as a guide. thanks for the info
     
    JamesThatcher likes this.
  11. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Sweden SWE Intrest rate April 27 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=13626;t=2019-12-19 8:30:00.0;s=USDSEK;r=S5

    December 20 2018 Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=2446;t=2018-12-20 8:30:00.0;s=USDSEK;r=S30




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 0
    SE Rates Forecast Q1 0
    SE Rates Forecast Q2 0
    SE Rates Forecast Q3 0
    SE Rates Forecast Q4 0
    SE Rates Forecast Q5 0
    SE Rates Forecast Q6 0
    SE Rates Forecast Q7 0



    Today's trade plan

    Today we don't expect any move from the Interest rate. But we may get some activity from the rate path. Previously the path was flat, with all lines showing 0. However, today, if any of the lines show a positive or negative deviation and don't conflict with each other. Then we can look to take a trade in the direction of the deviation.

    We also get Quantitative Easing (QE) at the same time. The problem we see with this event is SEK IR path could be up or down. (a cut by the end of 2021 and 10% to a hike by 2024) BUT the QE may counter-act to the longer-term path. So, we may get a positive path, but short term QE increase or vice versa effectively a conflict.

    If all deviations align, we could see a prolonged move.


    Tradable pairs

    EURSEK
    USDSEK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  12. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Australia CPI q/q April 28 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency.

    The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    January 27 2021 Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds!

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28145;t=2021-1-27 0:30:00.0;s=AUDUSD;r=S10

    July 29 2020 Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 dev but conflicted with a positive +0.1 from Headline. Nevertheless, Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=20676;t=2020-7-29 1:30:00.0;s=AUDUSD;r=S10




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q) 0.9
    CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y) 1.4
    CPI (Q/Q) 0.5
    CPI (Y/Y) 1.2



    Today's trade plan

    We need the Trimmed Mean QQ and/or YY to deviate by +-0.3 with no conflicts from the Headline QQ and YY. If this happens, we should see a prolonged move that we can benefit from. Any AUD pair will move from this data.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDJPY
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  13. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories April 28 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 21 2021 Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

    April 14 2021 Nice move! But it didn't hit a trigger for me.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38793;t=2021-4-14 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

    April 7 2021 Minimal deviations didn't create the move I would need to be safe.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=36450;t=2021-4-7 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.
    1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = 0659
    2) API Actual Crude = +4300
    3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0508
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -1300



    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  14. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    Today gave a deviation of -0.2% Trimmed Mean Q/Q -0.1% Trimmed Mean Y/Y with complimentary deviation on both the headline (Y/Y and Q/Q) of -0.3%. Everything lined up nicely.



    For those who are watching my plans closely, the deviation differs from my trade plan on this occasion. I set my software to look at all four lines and allowed it to quantify if the overall actual deviation from forecast on all four lines was enough to move the price significantly. If I was restricted to auto-clicking from one data line, then I would have missed this opportunity.



    I was happy with this outcome. That's two big wins and one slight loss this month.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43386;t=2021-4-28 1:30:00.0;s=EURAUD;r=S5

    See the video at :

     
  15. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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  16. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    New Zealand Unemployment Rate May 4 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

    There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a trade.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 2 2021 A positive deviation of -0.7 from the headline Unemployment Rate with a complementary positive deviation of +1.4k on the secondary line Employment Change which gave a slow move. This is what I love to see.

    I saw some movement before the delivery of the news which is always a concern and often a sign that the news is out early but I held my nerve this time and it paid off.

    Overall the price action was excellent.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=26836;t=2021-2-2 21:45:00.0;s=EURNZD;r=S5


    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change (Q/Q) 0.3
    Unemployment Rate 4.9

    Today's trade plan

    If I get either a positive or negative deviation of 0.4 from the headline Unemployment Rate without a conflict from the secondary line of Employment Change, then I would expect a good initial move followed by some continuation after the initial spike.

    Please note that the standard deviation on today's forecast range is significantly smaller than the last quarterly release, so I would expect the data to cause a better market reaction this time.

    New Zealand is the first country to emerge from Covid lock downs and hopefully, news events will continue to work. Unfortunately, the RBNZ is currently neutral regarding its stance on which way interest rates might go in the future. Which doesn't help to achieve those large rapid moves I used to see back before Covid came around.


    Tradable pairs

    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDJPY
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  17. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

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    United States Crude Oil Inventories May 5 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 28 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=43410;t=2021-4-28 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

    April 21 2021 Oil deviation wasn't even half of what I set up for no trade for me, take a look at the chart though, the price moved in the right direction of the news and immediately reversed and went the wrong way. A reminder that this needs a sizeable deviation from the forecast.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=41182;t=2021-4-21 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1

    April 14 2021 Nice move! But it didn't hit a trigger for me.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38793;t=2021-4-14 14:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1


    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -3000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000

    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +850
    2) API Actual Crude = -7700
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0652
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -5300


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  18. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    Norway NOK Rate Decision May 6 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?


    The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.


    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.



    Historic deviations and their outcome


    May 7 2020

    A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%



    March 20 2020

    A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%


    See Chart here:

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.


    March 13 2020

    An emergency cut of 0.50% to 1.0% interest rate due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant impact on the economy. This the first cut to interest rates since 2016


    The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.


    Due to the unprecedented times, this is the first in a series of emergency cuts, which resulted in minimal price action. Usually, we would see hundreds of pips if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.


    See Chart Here

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ..


    I will use forecasts of:


    Interest Rate Decision 0.0


    Today's trade plan


    I will set up for any deviation on this trade, although I expect a no-trade as 100% of economists predict no chance of a change in today's rate. However, if a surprise did happen, I would be devastated I wasn't ready.


    Tradable pairs

    EURNOK

    USDNOK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!


    James Thatcher



    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  19. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    Turkey Turkish Rate Decision May 6 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34208;t=2021-3-18 11:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S10

    December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=25738;t=2020-12-24 11:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1

    October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=23557;t=2020-10-22 11:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1



    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 19


    Today's trade plan

    24 economists all forecasts today for the rate to stay at 19%

    Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see!

    Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs.



    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     
  20. JamesThatcher

    JamesThatcher Member

    Joined:
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    2
    United States Non-Farm Employment Change May 7 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
    With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Whereas AE a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 2 2021 A very large deviation to the upside, but accompanied by conflicting Average Earnings, created a whipsaw that we don't like to see. This, therefore, did not hit our triggers and for good reason!

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=35213;t=2021-4-2 12:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

    March 5 2021 +197k positive deviation with no conflicts. The move was great on USDJPY! I don't trade stocks, but for those that do, look how they reacted, which was the opposite of the USD value. Better employment numbers suggest a tightening of monetary policy, which is not good for the stock market!

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33099;t=2021-3-5 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1

    February 5 2021 - 56k negative deviation on headline number but conflicting Unemployment and Average Earnings, However, USDJPY went in the direction of the headline number on this occasion. It wasn't a trade for me!

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28009;t=2021-2-5 13:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1


    I will use forecasts of:

    Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0
    Change in Non-Farm Payrolls 1000
    Unemployment Rate 5.8

    Today's trade plan

    Today the forecast range is far larger than last month, so we must be aware of that. If we see 300k deviations in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, we can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    USDJPY

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
     

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